5 ms·

What's the concern with commercial real estate?

rsync 4y ago
Commercial real estate is going to take a 30 or 40 or 50% haircut due to work from home policies and related cultural changes. Loans will default and we (taxpayers) will need to bail out the banks. It’s not obvious yet because commercial leases are long and take time to wind down… and building owners are still making payments. We are in the phase where the coyote has run off the cliff and is still hanging in mid air … soon it will plummet.
- supernovae 4y ago
  I'm not seeing that trend. We haven't even seen down side in pricing or a full downaward trend in in new construction and most of the modern developments are doing mixed developments of retail, business and living spaces. There were a few % points drop at times - but most of that was supply dynamics and supply pricing. so much demand for commercial real estate that prices are up 24% It's probably a good thing for the market to cool
  - lamontcg 4y ago
    People were saying exactly those same kinds of words about residential real estate in 2006.
    - supernovae 4y ago
      No, they weren't. By 2006 home sales were already down 10%, Homeowner ship was down in 2006 vs 2005, manufactured homes were down 11%, even apartment dweellings were down 2.4% from 2005 and new construction on apartments was down 5.9%. 2006 was nothing but four quarters of constant decline in housing. We haven't seen quarter after quarter decline yet and leading up to 2008 it was ~3 years of quarter after quarter declines. What we have seen is huge market corrections and we're now seeing healthy price corrections in real estate and a slowdown in home buying/selling. Job market still showed growth, retirement savings are down over peak, but still largely doing well over trend. I'd be fine with consumer confidence shrinking to force pricing back down. I see gas is < $4.00 a gallon here in Austin now (yay). Corrections are great... The only way we'll see another 2008 is if it turns out the market was fake to begin with. The only fake market i've seen is crypto. If people back out of that, that won't hurt USD much (it could help) and if people re-invest in crypto well then they re-invest in USD for everything necessary to support crypto (markets, electricity, GPUs/ASICs so on and so forth)
      - lamontcg 4y ago
        The current goal of the Fed is to crush the labor market and create unemployment and remove the ability of workers to have leverage over wages. They're not worried about high gas prices because they're economists and they understand that commodities prices are cyclical and act as their own brake on the economy. They're worried about the wages. Those aren't going to come down without significant pain.
- BeFlatXIII 4y ago
  > Loans will default and we (taxpayers) will need to bail out the banks. I'm voting against any of my Congresspeople who vote for the bailouts. Let them fail.
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    It will likely be mostly unanimous. In any case, bailouts can be good as long as the investors are punished.
    - BeFlatXIII 4y ago
      As my usual political stance goes, "fire them all!"

Commercial real estate is going to take a 30 or 40 or 50% haircut due to work from home policies and related cultural changes. Loans will default and we (taxpayers) will need to bail out the banks. It’s not obvious yet because commercial leases are long and take time to wind down… and building owners are still making payments. We are in the phase where the coyote has run off the cliff and is still hanging in mid air … soon it will plummet.

supernovae 4y ago
I'm not seeing that trend. We haven't even seen down side in pricing or a full downaward trend in in new construction and most of the modern developments are doing mixed developments of retail, business and living spaces. There were a few % points drop at times - but most of that was supply dynamics and supply pricing. so much demand for commercial real estate that prices are up 24% It's probably a good thing for the market to cool
- lamontcg 4y ago
  People were saying exactly those same kinds of words about residential real estate in 2006.
  - supernovae 4y ago
    No, they weren't. By 2006 home sales were already down 10%, Homeowner ship was down in 2006 vs 2005, manufactured homes were down 11%, even apartment dweellings were down 2.4% from 2005 and new construction on apartments was down 5.9%. 2006 was nothing but four quarters of constant decline in housing. We haven't seen quarter after quarter decline yet and leading up to 2008 it was ~3 years of quarter after quarter declines. What we have seen is huge market corrections and we're now seeing healthy price corrections in real estate and a slowdown in home buying/selling. Job market still showed growth, retirement savings are down over peak, but still largely doing well over trend. I'd be fine with consumer confidence shrinking to force pricing back down. I see gas is < $4.00 a gallon here in Austin now (yay). Corrections are great... The only way we'll see another 2008 is if it turns out the market was fake to begin with. The only fake market i've seen is crypto. If people back out of that, that won't hurt USD much (it could help) and if people re-invest in crypto well then they re-invest in USD for everything necessary to support crypto (markets, electricity, GPUs/ASICs so on and so forth)
    - lamontcg 4y ago
      The current goal of the Fed is to crush the labor market and create unemployment and remove the ability of workers to have leverage over wages. They're not worried about high gas prices because they're economists and they understand that commodities prices are cyclical and act as their own brake on the economy. They're worried about the wages. Those aren't going to come down without significant pain.
BeFlatXIII 4y ago
> Loans will default and we (taxpayers) will need to bail out the banks. I'm voting against any of my Congresspeople who vote for the bailouts. Let them fail.
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  It will likely be mostly unanimous. In any case, bailouts can be good as long as the investors are punished.
  - BeFlatXIII 4y ago
    As my usual political stance goes, "fire them all!"