3 ms·

You're right, in 1Q21 I probably wouldn't have even guessed 3.5% But what do you mean by positive inflation though? Like CPI > 0% YoY? Cause that's the crazies

You're right, in 1Q21 I probably wouldn't have even guessed 3.5% But what do you mean by positive inflation though? Like CPI > 0% YoY? Cause that's the craziest thing I've ever heard.

RC_ITR 4y ago
I mean I won't name names, but yeah. Best-fit line on CPI was pointing to below zero within the decade (and a common statement was 'humans see crossing 0 as a major milestone, but numbers do not') and we had already seen deflation more or less happening in Japan [0] Italy [1] Switzerland [2] Greece [3] and other small economies with slow-growing population. Hell, depending on what you believe about globalization and the nature of capital formation, one can still make a compelling contrarian argument that the developed world will see significant disinflation until we start getting serious about global warming (or global warming gets more serious, which is likely what will come first). [0]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9J https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9J [1]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9M https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9M [2]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9S [3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9W https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9W
- M3L0NM4N 4y ago
  To be fair, none of those 4 countries listed have quite the level of control over their currencies' supplies like the US Federal Reserve. On the "contrarian argument", I see the case for that having deflationary pressure. However, I believe the Fed will try it's damnedest to prevent deflation, at all costs, for the foreseeable future. I also think the US birth rate will find a floor sometime in the next 20 years, at which point (very hopefully) politicians will have gotten serious about immigration reform.

3 ms·

You're right, in 1Q21 I probably wouldn't have even guessed 3.5% But what do you mean by positive inflation though? Like CPI > 0% YoY? Cause that's the crazies

by M3L0NM4N 4y ago

You're right, in 1Q21 I probably wouldn't have even guessed 3.5% But what do you mean by positive inflation though? Like CPI > 0% YoY? Cause that's the craziest thing I've ever heard.

RC_ITR 4y ago
I mean I won't name names, but yeah. Best-fit line on CPI was pointing to below zero within the decade (and a common statement was 'humans see crossing 0 as a major milestone, but numbers do not') and we had already seen deflation more or less happening in Japan [0] Italy [1] Switzerland [2] Greece [3] and other small economies with slow-growing population. Hell, depending on what you believe about globalization and the nature of capital formation, one can still make a compelling contrarian argument that the developed world will see significant disinflation until we start getting serious about global warming (or global warming gets more serious, which is likely what will come first). [0]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9J https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9J [1]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9M https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9M [2]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9S [3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9W https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rw9W
- M3L0NM4N 4y ago
  To be fair, none of those 4 countries listed have quite the level of control over their currencies' supplies like the US Federal Reserve. On the "contrarian argument", I see the case for that having deflationary pressure. However, I believe the Fed will try it's damnedest to prevent deflation, at all costs, for the foreseeable future. I also think the US birth rate will find a floor sometime in the next 20 years, at which point (very hopefully) politicians will have gotten serious about immigration reform.