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There are short term effects and long term effects. The short term effect is basically a lot of uncertainty, supply chain issues, and the market re-adjusting to
by jillesvangurp 4y ago
There are short term effects and long term effects. The short term effect is basically a lot of uncertainty, supply chain issues, and the market re-adjusting to not being able to depend on Russian energy exports. Chaos in other words. Putin's ability to induce more chaos is however declining. Except for going nuclear and starting WW III, he's basically played most of the cards he had. And given how his army performs in the Ukraine, that seems ill advised.
The long term effect is enormous investments in energy and defense spending. E.g. Germany just announced enormous public spending on both. That's after decades of not doing much public spending at all. Other countries are likewise accelerating investments on both fronts. That is a lot of money that is flowing into the economy in the next years. And also a classical recipe for boosting economic growth. We're only a few months into this crisis and it has already unlocked hundreds of billions of funding in Germany alone. Normally, spending that big is going to have an impact on economies. There are companies that will benefit from this. And there are effects on employment, etc.
Investors of course are a mixed bag of headless chickens, snake oil sellers, amateurs and the occasional level headed person with a bit longer view on things. I'd offer advice, but I don't qualify as anything more than an absolute amateur. But the one thing I know is that the short term behavior of stock markets is perplexing and irrational. I wouldn't read too much into it other than that "there's a thing going on and it's impacting the stock market". I would not expect anything less given the thing that is going on. What matters is what happens when that thing is in the past.
IMHO, this situation is a blessing in disguise. It got world + dog moving a lot more aggressively on cutting their dependence on fossil fuels. I think that's a good thing. Going cold turkey on Russian gas is going to suck for a lot of countries short term but the current situation simply leaves no other choice. High prices are a great incentive for moving quickly. The good news is that there are companies itching to step in the void with solutions and they now have the full attention of investors and governments with very deep pockets.