Also, Tesla is in the process of roughly doubling their capacity with their new factories. Texas and Berlin only came online fairly recently. The plan with all

Also, Tesla is in the process of roughly doubling their capacity with their new factories. Texas and Berlin only came online fairly recently. The plan with all four of the Tesla production sites is to get to 500K vehicles per site per year. That's 2M vehicles per year, up from around 1M last year. Originally the plan was to get the monthly production rate there end of this calendar year. I think there will be a bit of back and forth between Tesla, Byd, and Volkswagen in the next few years. I don't think there are many more contenders for the #1 postion in terms of volume. Volkswagen seems to believe they can overtake Tesla in a few years and they are certainly investing heavily in their production capacity. More interesting is who will have the guts to start targeting the low end market in Europe and the US. There's no technical need for cars to cost more than 10-15K in the low end price range. Existing manufacturers are happy to lurk at the high end with fat product margins. However, there are a few cars well below 10K in the Chinese market already and it sure must be tempting to sell those with a fat margin in Europe. Even with a 5K markup they'd still be way cheaper than anything else in the market. The main cost driver is the size of the batteries. Light cars can get a lot more miles out of a relatively small battery. And of course battery prices continue to drop as well. A small reasonable car could sell much higher volumes than the current batch of ridiculously oversized SUVs that people seem to spend many tens of thousands on. IMHO that would create some challenges for legacy manufacturers that are currently very dependent on selling cheap crappy ICE cars to cost conscious consumers. A cheap EV with large fuel and maintenance savings is basically going to kill that market in no time. Some people are predicting 2028 as a key year where a lot of the demand for that will start dipping to problematic ranges. By that time a lot of new factories will be producing batteries and cars.