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I've been following this space for a while and this is a good question, but I think the answer is really a "ranges from 10 years to never". There's a lot of in

by hannob 4y ago

I've been following this space for a while and this is a good question, but I think the answer is really a "ranges from 10 years to never". There's a lot of investment currently in the quantum computer space (+ a lot of hype and scams). Yet this is still all very early research and far away from any practical use. The challenges to really build a QC that can break cryptography are enormous - and it is absolutely a possibility that they're too big to overcome.

chasil 4y ago
This article asserts that D-Wave and other quantum annealing devices will be able to mount attacks long before a machine exists that can run Shor's algorithm with error-corrected qubits in sufficient quantity. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurherman/2021/06/07/q-day-is-coming-sooner-than-we-think/?sh=1a7676f83f5d https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurherman/2021/06/07/q-day-i...
- latenightcoding 4y ago
  Quantum Annealing is not a threat for cryptography. You can safely dismiss these sort of articles.
- krastanov 4y ago
  To second what the sibling comment has said, "quantum annealing" claims by DWave are considered fairly overblown (on some rare occasions even misleading/scammy). If the claims of this article held, they would have been much better known in the field and published in much more popular venues.