there is a talk by Tony Seba on technological disruptions on Youtube that I find really interesting. in it he talks about the adoption of new novel technology a

there is a talk by Tony Seba on technological disruptions on Youtube that I find really interesting. in it he talks about the adoption of new novel technology as an S curve. so when a tech is new its expensive and there are very few adopters but if its genuinely useful then it will slowly disrupt the old technology until it hits a tipping point and the old tech is replaced exponentially. due to the exponential growth, the cost comes down due to economies of scale. the examples he gives are going from horses to cars, flip phones to smart phones (nokia, blackberry), solar panels, etc. if this does happen in electric vehicles, then any companies that doesnt have a foot in the door will quickly lose market share. i'm a bit scared for toyota bc batteries require alot of infrastructure and materials that need to be developed ahead of time. by the time toyota comes around they might be so behind tesla, vw, gm, ford, etc. in cost that they cant compete on cost or range.