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> Or, read what Stratfor (if you have a subscription) has been predicting for a decade now: Germany's slow decline, to be replaced as Europe's power center by P
by odiroot 4y ago
> Or, read what Stratfor (if you have a subscription) has been predicting for a decade now: Germany's slow decline, to be replaced as Europe's power center by Poland.
As a Pole, I cannot help but laugh at that. Why would that ever be the case?
- concinds 4y agoFeel free to read Stratfor's site (I named an extension that allows full free access) or George Friedman's "The Next 100 Years" book. Stratfor employs many ex-US-intelligence-agency people who use the same geopolitical analysis methods for a corporate audience (though without classified data) and their views are a close approximation of the thinking of the US's intelligence community; in that sense, they are significant.
- mythrwy 4y agoFriedman sometimes has some interesting takes but is often dramatically and laughably wrong. I would hesitate to take much of what they say as having much predictive accuracy at all. They do state it with an air of authority and "high caliber top secret intelligence" but still laughable.
- throw827474737 4y ago> close approximation of the thinking of the US's intelligence community; in that sense, they are significant Which means in that sense it will be very likely ridicously wrong?!
- concinds 4y agoIf you post nonsense replies you are just disincentivizing anyone thoughtful from posting here. To reply (though you were perfectly capable of this thought yourself): Obviously; but it gives us a frame to understand geopolitical behavior by the US as it happens, and before it happens. Edward Gibbon described “secret intrigues of the palace” (palace intrigue) as “those trifling but decisive causes which so often influence the fate of empires.” Stratfor is the Pentagon's palace intrigue (several steps removed). If you've ever read Stratfor you know they expect, and plan for, the disintegration of Russia and China into smaller republics; and you can tell I don't believe in that. It is merely an indication that the US likely now sees Germany as a second-rate ally, irrelevant to its geopolitical future; and therefore doesn't care about the sanctions' effect on Germany. That is the only reason I brought it up.
- YarickR2 4y agoWell, "Fuck the EU", as Nuland famously proclaimed 8 years ago in Ukraine. As it stands, EU is being consistently and thoroughly fucked . https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
- DisjointedHunt 4y agoJust like simply eating at a McDonalds once doesn’t make me an expert on Burgers. . . Similarly, holding the passport of a country doesn’t automatically make someone a geopolitical expert I mean no offense at all, I’ve simply observed way too many instances of online discourse beginning with “as a citizen of ____” to establish credibility in areas that don’t really benefit from citizenship.
- littlestymaar 4y agoI kind of agree with you in a way: saying Poland will overtake Germany is as laughable as saying Canada will overtake the US as the economic leader in north America. You don't even need to be Canadian to know how ridiculous of a claim this is.
- OJFord 4y agoIn my reading, the point of 'as a Pole' is to say 'look I bear no ill will towards Poles, I want the best for Poland as much as the next citizen', it's not claiming authority, it's disclaiming bias against.