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Bitcoin has been dropping about 10k per month the last few months. The next big 10k drop should come around the middle of July, and in August I predict the pric

by xwdv 4y ago

Bitcoin has been dropping about 10k per month the last few months. The next big 10k drop should come around the middle of July, and in August I predict the price will be in the low thousands.

cehrlich 4y ago
I'm also bearish on crypto, but by that logic it will be at -10k three months from now.
- postalrat 4y ago
  Maybe after 10k it just halves every month.
  - bogota 4y ago
    Maybe it does maybe it doesn’t. All of this discussion is founded in great TA and economics…
- paulpauper 4y ago
  right now the decline still seems to be at a constant rate
  - bee_rider 4y ago
    Sigmoids look pretty linear at some points, right?
  - mlyle 4y ago
    Yes, but extrapolating current behavior to the future is risky, especially when just extended a bit further the result is obviously ridiculous-- like a large negative price.
  - bogota 4y ago
    Yea but not a constant percentage. A 50% in a month drop is much different than 10% drop of a much higher prices asset. Anyway i would bet 2 bitcoin that it will not be down another ten thousand in a month. However im not aware of any escrow that would hold btc for one party and usd for the other as im sure you don’t want to bet in btc if you think that asset is dropping. Not without using some derivatives on eth that I don’t trust anyway.
    - xwdv 4y ago
      It’s actually dropping by an increasing percentage each time. There is a clear path for Bitcoin being worth pennies.
    - pcthrowaway 4y ago
      You can do this with a smart contract if you're willing to be exposed to wbtc and a stablecoin of your choice. I wouldn't take the other side of this bet though, I'm long-term bearish BTC, but I don't think it will drop below $10,000 this month
- ALittleLight 4y ago
  That's when I plan to buy as much as possible.
  - kleer001 4y ago
    Same. My gut check puts the bottom of BTC for this cycle around 14-17K USD. We'll see.
    - loeg 4y ago
      GP was making a joke about having to be paid to own crypto.
- morelisp 4y ago
  Given the infrastructural overhead is not reusable as a bank or even a mint would be, this seems possible. "Deal with disposing of my mining rig and you can have whatever's left in the account."
- brianobush 4y ago
  That would be an amazing price entry!
RGamma 4y ago
In my mind anything more than 5 bucks is a lot for a currency you cannot buy anything with.
unicornmama 4y ago
We’re learning how much leverage went into puffing up the crypto bubble. Bond yields go up, loans get called, crypto fire sale. The Fed meets last week July, if they telegraph another monster hike (looks likely, but they might lose their nerve) it’s gonna another crypto bloodbath.
- bogota 4y ago
  I mean crypto is just the most risky asset. You are seeing this in everything just look at tech stocks. But everyone on here wants to act like crypto is some malicious actor for whatever reason instead of realizing it just has much smaller volume.
  - cuteboy19 4y ago
    many of the same people who railed against crypto (eg buffet) also railed against high PE stocks with no profitability in sight.
  - danaris 4y ago
    It's not merely smaller volume: it's got no fundamentals whatsoever. It is the purest incarnation of "the value is what people will pay for it." Own stocks? If the company tanks, they still have assets to liquidate. Own foreign currencies? People still have to pay their taxes in those, so there's always some market for them. Own Bitcoin? Once people stop believing it'll go to the moon, there's no reason to own it for 99.9% of people (and the reasons the remaining 0.1% want it are antithetical to a functioning and economically healthy society).
    - puchatek 4y ago
      Wanting to sidestep banks when doing business is antithetical to a functioning and economically healthy society? Fourteen years ago a good deal of those banks crashed the world economy but are still around because governments decided that their immense loses had to be socialized using taxpayer money. Not my definition of economical healthy. Before the advent of altcoins and before the fees skyrocketed people were using BTC to pay for stuff. A network that can facilitate this has value. What that value is is a matter of debate, just like it's debatable whether Tesla should be worth ten times as much as Volkswagen. Any crypto that survives in the long term and will facilitate near-instant global payments at minuscule costs without middlemen will have enough value for a lot of people to want to have it.
ipaddr 4y ago
At 5,000 you are back to fanboy 2018 holdings who won't sell.. this group is much bigger now The hedge funds and large funds listed have retreated. This category will go lower but jump in when the bottom hits. We could drop another 10,000 but I doubt it unless there a whale who stop believing and are part of selling off?
- AlexandrB 4y ago
  > At 5,000 you are back to fanboy 2018 holdings who won't sell.. this group is much bigger now Aren't there more bitcoins in circulation now than in 2018? I know it's not a ton more, but if BTC drops to the same market cap as in 2018, the price of each coin will actually be less than $5000.

by xwdv 4y ago

Bitcoin has been dropping about 10k per month the last few months. The next big 10k drop should come around the middle of July, and in August I predict the price will be in the low thousands.

cehrlich 4y ago

I'm also bearish on crypto, but by that logic it will be at -10k three months from now.

postalrat 4y ago
Maybe after 10k it just halves every month.
- bogota 4y ago
  Maybe it does maybe it doesn’t. All of this discussion is founded in great TA and economics…
paulpauper 4y ago
right now the decline still seems to be at a constant rate
- bee_rider 4y ago
  Sigmoids look pretty linear at some points, right?
- mlyle 4y ago
  Yes, but extrapolating current behavior to the future is risky, especially when just extended a bit further the result is obviously ridiculous-- like a large negative price.
- bogota 4y ago
  Yea but not a constant percentage. A 50% in a month drop is much different than 10% drop of a much higher prices asset. Anyway i would bet 2 bitcoin that it will not be down another ten thousand in a month. However im not aware of any escrow that would hold btc for one party and usd for the other as im sure you don’t want to bet in btc if you think that asset is dropping. Not without using some derivatives on eth that I don’t trust anyway.
  - xwdv 4y ago
    It’s actually dropping by an increasing percentage each time. There is a clear path for Bitcoin being worth pennies.
  - pcthrowaway 4y ago
    You can do this with a smart contract if you're willing to be exposed to wbtc and a stablecoin of your choice. I wouldn't take the other side of this bet though, I'm long-term bearish BTC, but I don't think it will drop below $10,000 this month
ALittleLight 4y ago
That's when I plan to buy as much as possible.
- kleer001 4y ago
  Same. My gut check puts the bottom of BTC for this cycle around 14-17K USD. We'll see.
  - loeg 4y ago
    GP was making a joke about having to be paid to own crypto.
morelisp 4y ago
Given the infrastructural overhead is not reusable as a bank or even a mint would be, this seems possible. "Deal with disposing of my mining rig and you can have whatever's left in the account."
brianobush 4y ago
That would be an amazing price entry!

RGamma 4y ago

In my mind anything more than 5 bucks is a lot for a currency you cannot buy anything with.

unicornmama 4y ago

We’re learning how much leverage went into puffing up the crypto bubble. Bond yields go up, loans get called, crypto fire sale. The Fed meets last week July, if they telegraph another monster hike (looks likely, but they might lose their nerve) it’s gonna another crypto bloodbath.

bogota 4y ago
I mean crypto is just the most risky asset. You are seeing this in everything just look at tech stocks. But everyone on here wants to act like crypto is some malicious actor for whatever reason instead of realizing it just has much smaller volume.
- cuteboy19 4y ago
  many of the same people who railed against crypto (eg buffet) also railed against high PE stocks with no profitability in sight.
- danaris 4y ago
  It's not merely smaller volume: it's got no fundamentals whatsoever. It is the purest incarnation of "the value is what people will pay for it." Own stocks? If the company tanks, they still have assets to liquidate. Own foreign currencies? People still have to pay their taxes in those, so there's always some market for them. Own Bitcoin? Once people stop believing it'll go to the moon, there's no reason to own it for 99.9% of people (and the reasons the remaining 0.1% want it are antithetical to a functioning and economically healthy society).
  - puchatek 4y ago
    Wanting to sidestep banks when doing business is antithetical to a functioning and economically healthy society? Fourteen years ago a good deal of those banks crashed the world economy but are still around because governments decided that their immense loses had to be socialized using taxpayer money. Not my definition of economical healthy. Before the advent of altcoins and before the fees skyrocketed people were using BTC to pay for stuff. A network that can facilitate this has value. What that value is is a matter of debate, just like it's debatable whether Tesla should be worth ten times as much as Volkswagen. Any crypto that survives in the long term and will facilitate near-instant global payments at minuscule costs without middlemen will have enough value for a lot of people to want to have it.

ipaddr 4y ago

At 5,000 you are back to fanboy 2018 holdings who won't sell.. this group is much bigger now The hedge funds and large funds listed have retreated. This category will go lower but jump in when the bottom hits. We could drop another 10,000 but I doubt it unless there a whale who stop believing and are part of selling off?

AlexandrB 4y ago
> At 5,000 you are back to fanboy 2018 holdings who won't sell.. this group is much bigger now Aren't there more bitcoins in circulation now than in 2018? I know it's not a ton more, but if BTC drops to the same market cap as in 2018, the price of each coin will actually be less than $5000.