4 ms·

little do they tell you about the product-market fit lottery and how hard it is to win a bagger. i worked on one saas for years that yielded nothing. i worked o

little do they tell you about the product-market fit lottery and how hard it is to win a bagger. i worked on one saas for years that yielded nothing. i worked on another that took literally a few weeks to make and somehow its gaining traction. i literally did nothing different. sometimes i ponder whether capitalism really is the result of dice rolling and the participant thinks they have greater influence than they really do.

Icathian 4y ago
I think you're probably right, by and large. The trick, then, is to get as many rolls of the dice as is possible, and to recognize as early as possible whether you've won or lost. If you've lost, cut your losses and roll again, if you've won double down and cling on for dear life. While simple, this is not an easy call to make, I imagine.
- ezekiel11 4y ago
  which makes me think back to somebody saying how poker tournaments are a mini version of our free market democracy. As you win more chips, you stand to win even more chips because your incremental risk is a lot less expensive than somebody on their last few blinds. Someone with very few chips cannot afford to experiment, has to choose a hand with the highest rate of probability, and even then they can still fail!
  - BlargMcLarg 4y ago
    Worse, since society becomes reliant on big players, their risk is further lowered by the fact they "can't possibly fail or it would be a disaster". At that point it's more like every big player gets an extra card they can choose to use.
nine_k 4y ago
Markets may stay irrational longer that you can whatever. To me markets look like evolution processes: there's definitely a vector towards better efficiency, better "fitness", but the trajectory is more like a random walk than a targeted shot. With that, markets fail, but all highly-planned regimes have historically failed even worse. What I take from this is that one should not emotionally invest in a business, and not make a serious business out of things that one has emotionally invested in. Be curious, try things and see if they work. Many of the best-looking of them won't; some of the sillies of them will.
muhaaa 4y ago
Product market fit is a game of probability. Just throw enough stuff against the wall and see what sticks. Then improve.
seibelj 4y ago
Capitalism is about channeling all of the energy, resources, and effort of the most ambitious people into trying to solve other people’s problems. You win if you solve other people’s problems with some excellent combination of quality and price. The most ambitious people used to be conquerors, trying to force humanity into subjugation to rule as much as possible. Now, the most ambitious people do everything they can to solve problems, as that is how you gain the most resources and personal wealth. The end result is the capitalists that win, win big. But to me this is far superior than the alternative. The “dice rolling” process you feel is random can be studied and optimized to increase your chances of success, either with better targeting or with more dice rolls. This is the product development process and the risk involved is why creators of successful businesses deserve huge rewards.
- ezekiel11 4y ago
  Even before you get to solve other people's problems, its a competition to even get noticed and that you exist. Literally every advice you hear on SaaS growth, has an implicit understanding that you are past the inflexion point of product-market fit. Again I compare it to something like poker tournament. In the beginning you are trying to build enough chips to get ahead the pack, there are lot of failures, risks are unknown
  - seibelj 4y ago
    Marketing - which is making the market aware you exist - is a fundamental element of business. Even those that do “no marketing” have to do some sort of marketing, it just isn’t the advertising sort. There is all manner of marketing possible at all price points. Just hitting up your network is marketing. I have successfully sold products by having people answer questions all day every day to the long tail of Reddit comments in honest ways explaining how our product solves their problem.
    - ezekiel11 4y ago
      True true. I'm a bit jaded after being gaslit into spending thousands of dollars on ad networks, one of which convinced me to hand over a few dollars per click that resulted in a bad time. I guess this is my fault, not realizing it was unsustainable. then I moved on to "content marketing" and "selling before you have a product" and I also struggled. Spending hours and $$$ on content that nobody even read or saw. Without a product I could not even get past "do you have a demo". This road is full of pitfalls, false promises and outright gambling at times. I wish I had the resources I have now to spray and pray (try everything and see what sticks literally). I wish I could just hire somebody like you hire coders. The difficulty comes from not knowing if this marketer is just blowing hot air or know what they are doing. Obviously, past performance helps but I find it a lot easier to find coders vs sales & marketing ppl.
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achillesheels 4y ago
You did do something different. There were two different applications correct? One had more urgency as a solution than the other. Why was that?

Icathian 4y ago

I think you're probably right, by and large. The trick, then, is to get as many rolls of the dice as is possible, and to recognize as early as possible whether you've won or lost. If you've lost, cut your losses and roll again, if you've won double down and cling on for dear life. While simple, this is not an easy call to make, I imagine.

ezekiel11 4y ago
which makes me think back to somebody saying how poker tournaments are a mini version of our free market democracy. As you win more chips, you stand to win even more chips because your incremental risk is a lot less expensive than somebody on their last few blinds. Someone with very few chips cannot afford to experiment, has to choose a hand with the highest rate of probability, and even then they can still fail!
- BlargMcLarg 4y ago
  Worse, since society becomes reliant on big players, their risk is further lowered by the fact they "can't possibly fail or it would be a disaster". At that point it's more like every big player gets an extra card they can choose to use.

nine_k 4y ago

Markets may stay irrational longer that you can whatever. To me markets look like evolution processes: there's definitely a vector towards better efficiency, better "fitness", but the trajectory is more like a random walk than a targeted shot. With that, markets fail, but all highly-planned regimes have historically failed even worse. What I take from this is that one should not emotionally invest in a business, and not make a serious business out of things that one has emotionally invested in. Be curious, try things and see if they work. Many of the best-looking of them won't; some of the sillies of them will.

muhaaa 4y ago

Product market fit is a game of probability. Just throw enough stuff against the wall and see what sticks. Then improve.

seibelj 4y ago

Capitalism is about channeling all of the energy, resources, and effort of the most ambitious people into trying to solve other people’s problems. You win if you solve other people’s problems with some excellent combination of quality and price. The most ambitious people used to be conquerors, trying to force humanity into subjugation to rule as much as possible. Now, the most ambitious people do everything they can to solve problems, as that is how you gain the most resources and personal wealth. The end result is the capitalists that win, win big. But to me this is far superior than the alternative. The “dice rolling” process you feel is random can be studied and optimized to increase your chances of success, either with better targeting or with more dice rolls. This is the product development process and the risk involved is why creators of successful businesses deserve huge rewards.

ezekiel11 4y ago
Even before you get to solve other people's problems, its a competition to even get noticed and that you exist. Literally every advice you hear on SaaS growth, has an implicit understanding that you are past the inflexion point of product-market fit. Again I compare it to something like poker tournament. In the beginning you are trying to build enough chips to get ahead the pack, there are lot of failures, risks are unknown
- seibelj 4y ago
  Marketing - which is making the market aware you exist - is a fundamental element of business. Even those that do “no marketing” have to do some sort of marketing, it just isn’t the advertising sort. There is all manner of marketing possible at all price points. Just hitting up your network is marketing. I have successfully sold products by having people answer questions all day every day to the long tail of Reddit comments in honest ways explaining how our product solves their problem.
  - ezekiel11 4y ago
    True true. I'm a bit jaded after being gaslit into spending thousands of dollars on ad networks, one of which convinced me to hand over a few dollars per click that resulted in a bad time. I guess this is my fault, not realizing it was unsustainable. then I moved on to "content marketing" and "selling before you have a product" and I also struggled. Spending hours and $$$ on content that nobody even read or saw. Without a product I could not even get past "do you have a demo". This road is full of pitfalls, false promises and outright gambling at times. I wish I had the resources I have now to spray and pray (try everything and see what sticks literally). I wish I could just hire somebody like you hire coders. The difficulty comes from not knowing if this marketer is just blowing hot air or know what they are doing. Obviously, past performance helps but I find it a lot easier to find coders vs sales & marketing ppl.

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achillesheels 4y ago

You did do something different. There were two different applications correct? One had more urgency as a solution than the other. Why was that?