7 ms·

In a world where the deck is stacked against most people regardless whether they "do the right things" like go to college hope of a chance windfall may be the o

In a world where the deck is stacked against most people regardless whether they "do the right things" like go to college hope of a chance windfall may be the only way to reach beyond their economic situation. $9.11 saved per month isn't going to ever buy a car, but it might win one and that's an easy value proposition to some people.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
themitigating 4y ago
Going to college isn't right or wrong it can only improve your chances of getting a job or a higher salary in certain careers. If this doesn't work out moving to the probability of a windfall maybe desperation but it's not smart. If people believe this is their only hope that's sad and we should guide them to make better decisions.
- solardev 4y ago
  College is no guarantee of anything anymore. Many schools and degrees don't even have a positive ROI.
  - xwdv 4y ago
    Just get a STEM degree and it’s hard to do poorly afterwards.
    - solardev 4y ago
      That's out of reach for most Americans.
    - SamoyedFurFluff 4y ago
      I would disagree. There are several sections of STEM where there really isnt much for you. What are you supposed to achieve with a bachelors in physics?
      - labster 4y ago
        I’d hire a physics BS grad for a software dev job. The ability to reason through mathematical problems is very similar. But then, I’m an atmospheric science student who ended up as a programmer.
      - ajkjk 4y ago
        The exact same thing as a bachelor's in CS? You hardly need a CS degree to work in most tech jobs.
      - HWR_14 4y ago
        > What are you supposed to achieve with a bachelors in physics Start an internet payment, space exploration, electronic vehicle, tunnel boring, or direct brain-computer interface company. The mean ROI on a bachelors in physics is probably the highest in STEM. Apparently, they're also popular on Wall Street
        LadyCailin 4y ago
        Other than perhaps space exploration, what do any of these have to do with physics? It seems what you are arguing for is “just found multiple highly successful businesses”, which… well, yeah. Why do you need a physics degree for that?
        hutzlibu 4y ago
        I think cars have something to do with physics(like most real things), and since physik is applied math and being good with applied math might also help with numbers of money in general, I think a physics degree is helpful in allmost any job.
        oriolid 4y ago
        Physics seems to attract the sort of people who have the sort of arrogance it takes to look at a product or business and say "This is not great. I can start work from first principles and build a better one". Elon Musk is certainly an example, but not the only one (think MySQL/MariaDB, 90s Nokia, or more far-fetched example, the Red Special guitar). Physics also tends to be just difficult enough that most computing or finance problems are easy in comparison, and some of the math is useful. Mandatory SMBC link: https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2012-03-21 https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2012-03-21
    - q-big 4y ago
      > Just get a STEM degree and it’s hard to do poorly afterwards. Wait until the winds of the economic climate change their direction again; until this moment, celebrate and post such texts on HN that will become bad advice.
      - red75prime 4y ago
        Ah, the AI-mediated boom of janitors, teachers, and other low-paid jobs that are costly to automate. I wouldn't say that they will bathe in money though. Being low paid is their competitive advantage.
        number6 4y ago
        Ah! When the AI cometh then, blessed are the poor in spirit: for theirs is the kingdom of heaven - all others shall be automated away!
      - themitigating 4y ago
        Are you saying career advice may not be correct at a later date?
    - astura 4y ago
      Idk... I know like 10 people who got degrees in math and none ended up working in a job that requires any degree at all. Food service, secretaries, factory workers, insurance salesmen. I just think there isn't nearly enough jobs in the field compared to the amount of people who are graduating with math degrees. There's only 27,700 actuaries in the US - https://www.bls.gov/ooh/math/actuaries.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/math/actuaries.htm
      - themitigating 4y ago
        First, you're sample size of 10 people has no value. Second mathematics is just one degree and can not be used as a representation of all degrees. Finally actuaries are just on career that someone with a math degree might get so that total number doesn't have value when talking about the potential of a math degree
        solardev 4y ago
        For anyone interested in a statistical analysis of this stuff, here's one example: https://freopp.org/is-college-worth-it-a-comprehensive-return-on-investment-analysis-1b2ad17f84c8 https://freopp.org/is-college-worth-it-a-comprehensive-retur... They are a libertarian thinktank, so take it with a grain of salt, but it's a lot more data than we've had in this thread so far. TLDR: Engineering pays, computers pay almost as much, art and music are usually a net negative (over 42 working years). Looking at math, 88% of graduates will earn a 42-year ROI of <=$1,000,000, which means most of them are earning an additional $24k/year on top of what they could've expected to earn without a degree ("counterfactual earnings": https://freopp.org/how-we-calculated-the-return-on-investment-of-a-college-degree-e93bce69f9c7 https://freopp.org/how-we-calculated-the-return-on-investmen...). Only 3% of math majors should expect a negative ROI (i.e., they would've been better off NOT getting their degree). By comparison, 68% of art & music majors will have a negative ROI on their degree.
  - themitigating 4y ago
    That's the same thing I said
    - solardev 4y ago
      I read your comment as "College can only improve your chances, especially in certain fields. And at the very least it's smarter than hoping for a windfall". Did I understand that right? If so, I don't necessarily agree. College is an expensive (dollars and time) proposition that rarely pays off. Trade schools, boot camps, etc. are probably better investments for many people. And frankly, saving your money and hoping for a windfall is probably smarter than going to college unless you have a very clear idea already of what you want to study and what career you want to go into afterward. College is not an automatic positive. For a lot of people, their degree ends up not being worth their student debt. Or maybe I misunderstood the "it can only improve your chances" part... like maybe you meant "it can improve your chances, but only in certain fields", vs "it can only improve your chances (not worsen them)"?
taneq 4y ago
That’s the thing that naïve expected value arguments miss - sometimes even though in the long run you’re better off not buying lotto tickets or insurance, we don’t live in the long run and often it’s worth sacrificing a bit of expected value to hedge against a potentially devastating loss, or create the tiny possibility of a life-altering windfall.
wvh 4y ago
True, but it usually doesn't stop with a one-off lucky shot. Some people just repeatedly spend money in ways that will hurt them in the long run. It's a sad situation if you think your best hope for the future is (extremely unlikely) random luck or keeping shady creditors at bay. There are a whole lot of companies out there fishing for vulnerable people, in all shades from legally shady businesses to pretty much all ad and credit companies.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

themitigating 4y ago

Going to college isn't right or wrong it can only improve your chances of getting a job or a higher salary in certain careers. If this doesn't work out moving to the probability of a windfall maybe desperation but it's not smart. If people believe this is their only hope that's sad and we should guide them to make better decisions.

solardev 4y ago
College is no guarantee of anything anymore. Many schools and degrees don't even have a positive ROI.
- xwdv 4y ago
  Just get a STEM degree and it’s hard to do poorly afterwards.
  - solardev 4y ago
    That's out of reach for most Americans.
  - SamoyedFurFluff 4y ago
    I would disagree. There are several sections of STEM where there really isnt much for you. What are you supposed to achieve with a bachelors in physics?
    - labster 4y ago
      I’d hire a physics BS grad for a software dev job. The ability to reason through mathematical problems is very similar. But then, I’m an atmospheric science student who ended up as a programmer.
    - ajkjk 4y ago
      The exact same thing as a bachelor's in CS? You hardly need a CS degree to work in most tech jobs.
    - HWR_14 4y ago
      > What are you supposed to achieve with a bachelors in physics Start an internet payment, space exploration, electronic vehicle, tunnel boring, or direct brain-computer interface company. The mean ROI on a bachelors in physics is probably the highest in STEM. Apparently, they're also popular on Wall Street
      - LadyCailin 4y ago
        Other than perhaps space exploration, what do any of these have to do with physics? It seems what you are arguing for is “just found multiple highly successful businesses”, which… well, yeah. Why do you need a physics degree for that?
        hutzlibu 4y ago
        I think cars have something to do with physics(like most real things), and since physik is applied math and being good with applied math might also help with numbers of money in general, I think a physics degree is helpful in allmost any job.
        oriolid 4y ago
        Physics seems to attract the sort of people who have the sort of arrogance it takes to look at a product or business and say "This is not great. I can start work from first principles and build a better one". Elon Musk is certainly an example, but not the only one (think MySQL/MariaDB, 90s Nokia, or more far-fetched example, the Red Special guitar). Physics also tends to be just difficult enough that most computing or finance problems are easy in comparison, and some of the math is useful. Mandatory SMBC link: https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2012-03-21 https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2012-03-21
  - q-big 4y ago
    > Just get a STEM degree and it’s hard to do poorly afterwards. Wait until the winds of the economic climate change their direction again; until this moment, celebrate and post such texts on HN that will become bad advice.
    - red75prime 4y ago
      Ah, the AI-mediated boom of janitors, teachers, and other low-paid jobs that are costly to automate. I wouldn't say that they will bathe in money though. Being low paid is their competitive advantage.
      - number6 4y ago
        Ah! When the AI cometh then, blessed are the poor in spirit: for theirs is the kingdom of heaven - all others shall be automated away!
    - themitigating 4y ago
      Are you saying career advice may not be correct at a later date?
  - astura 4y ago
    Idk... I know like 10 people who got degrees in math and none ended up working in a job that requires any degree at all. Food service, secretaries, factory workers, insurance salesmen. I just think there isn't nearly enough jobs in the field compared to the amount of people who are graduating with math degrees. There's only 27,700 actuaries in the US - https://www.bls.gov/ooh/math/actuaries.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/math/actuaries.htm
    - themitigating 4y ago
      First, you're sample size of 10 people has no value. Second mathematics is just one degree and can not be used as a representation of all degrees. Finally actuaries are just on career that someone with a math degree might get so that total number doesn't have value when talking about the potential of a math degree
      - solardev 4y ago
        For anyone interested in a statistical analysis of this stuff, here's one example: https://freopp.org/is-college-worth-it-a-comprehensive-return-on-investment-analysis-1b2ad17f84c8 https://freopp.org/is-college-worth-it-a-comprehensive-retur... They are a libertarian thinktank, so take it with a grain of salt, but it's a lot more data than we've had in this thread so far. TLDR: Engineering pays, computers pay almost as much, art and music are usually a net negative (over 42 working years). Looking at math, 88% of graduates will earn a 42-year ROI of <=$1,000,000, which means most of them are earning an additional $24k/year on top of what they could've expected to earn without a degree ("counterfactual earnings": https://freopp.org/how-we-calculated-the-return-on-investment-of-a-college-degree-e93bce69f9c7 https://freopp.org/how-we-calculated-the-return-on-investmen...). Only 3% of math majors should expect a negative ROI (i.e., they would've been better off NOT getting their degree). By comparison, 68% of art & music majors will have a negative ROI on their degree.
- themitigating 4y ago
  That's the same thing I said
  - solardev 4y ago
    I read your comment as "College can only improve your chances, especially in certain fields. And at the very least it's smarter than hoping for a windfall". Did I understand that right? If so, I don't necessarily agree. College is an expensive (dollars and time) proposition that rarely pays off. Trade schools, boot camps, etc. are probably better investments for many people. And frankly, saving your money and hoping for a windfall is probably smarter than going to college unless you have a very clear idea already of what you want to study and what career you want to go into afterward. College is not an automatic positive. For a lot of people, their degree ends up not being worth their student debt. Or maybe I misunderstood the "it can only improve your chances" part... like maybe you meant "it can improve your chances, but only in certain fields", vs "it can only improve your chances (not worsen them)"?

taneq 4y ago

That’s the thing that naïve expected value arguments miss - sometimes even though in the long run you’re better off not buying lotto tickets or insurance, we don’t live in the long run and often it’s worth sacrificing a bit of expected value to hedge against a potentially devastating loss, or create the tiny possibility of a life-altering windfall.

wvh 4y ago

True, but it usually doesn't stop with a one-off lucky shot. Some people just repeatedly spend money in ways that will hurt them in the long run. It's a sad situation if you think your best hope for the future is (extremely unlikely) random luck or keeping shady creditors at bay. There are a whole lot of companies out there fishing for vulnerable people, in all shades from legally shady businesses to pretty much all ad and credit companies.