4 ms·

That's just replacing their anecdotes with your anecdotes. Why not look at actual data, which is likely to tell you that crime has plunged everywhere since the

by TillE 4y ago

That's just replacing their anecdotes with your anecdotes. Why not look at actual data, which is likely to tell you that crime has plunged everywhere since the 80s.

WaitWaitWha 4y ago
>Why not look at actual data, which is likely to tell you that crime has plunged everywhere since the 80s. Overall yes, but not everywhere in my opinion. Many places got safer, but some places got much worse edit: added "Yes, but" for clarification.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  Sorta true - there will always be outliers - but not in the way you may think. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/em/summer16/highlight2.html https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/em/summer16/highl... > Disadvantaged neighborhoods have experienced larger drops in crime, although significant disparities persist.
millzlane 4y ago
Did it plunge though, or did people stop reporting, and police stop taking reports? Do we know why it plunged?
- Hellbanevil 4y ago
- jakelazaroff 4y ago
  The murder rate has dropped by about half, and unless you think police are somehow managing to not report corpses, we can probably trust that as at least directionally accurate. Two more trends to consider, over the same period of time: the funding for police has skyrocketed, and the murder clearance rate has plunged. So despite fewer murders occuring and record funding, the police are still solving less of them than at any point in recorded history.
  - selectodude 4y ago
    >and the murder clearance rate has plunged. So despite fewer murders occuring and record funding, the police are still solving less of them than at any point in recorded history. Eh, there is no shortage of cops who have gone away for torture and planting evidence to attain those clearance rates. For better or worse, I prefer a low clearance rate than the 99+ percent clearance rate in say, Japan. At least we can be pretty damn sure the people going away for murder right now actually did it.
    - jakelazaroff 4y ago
      I agree with you up until the part where we can be pretty sure the people going away for murder right now did it. This very thread is on an article about how, when a forensic gunshot analysis tool was found to be fabricating evidence, they sued for defamation instead of fixing it. Police still lie and plant evidence all the time, and our carceral system is set up to coerce those suspects into guilty pleas to avoid going to trial. Here’s a Twitter thread with the clearance rate details, if you’re interested [1]. Another damning trend: since the 90s, the decrease in clearance rate has been driven disproportionately by failure to solve murders with Black victims. [1] https://twitter.com/chrishnews/status/1542173173008957441 https://twitter.com/chrishnews/status/1542173173008957441
  - mistrial9 4y ago
    add another factor -- an Emergency Room Nurse told me that the murder rate would be substantially higher except for advances in trauma medicine over the last few decades, as well. This is from a city you have heard of in the USA with consistent, serious urban murder rates.
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      Other forms of crime, including violent crimes like the sort that might've lead to death before our advances in trauma care - assaults, stabbings, shootings, etc. - are similarly down. It's not just a drop in murder; it's across the board.
- steve76 4y ago
chitowneats 4y ago
That's part of the story. What has happened to violent crime rates since June 2020 in the US? I'll leave that as a googling exercise but something tells me you already know and are hand-waving.
- not2b 4y ago
  You are cherry-picking an endpoint. June 2020 was close to the height of Covid restrictions. Climate change deniers pulled a similar trick, choosing 1998 as an endpoint because it was an unusually hot year.
  - chitowneats 4y ago
    I am identifying the beginning of a trend of increasing violent crime. It is still increasing. Murders are higher in 2022 than they were in 2021, which were higher than they were in 2020, in most American cities. Nowhere else in the world had a crime spike like the U.S. Covid restrictions surely exacerbated the situation but they are not the cause.

by TillE 4y ago

That's just replacing their anecdotes with your anecdotes. Why not look at actual data, which is likely to tell you that crime has plunged everywhere since the 80s.

WaitWaitWha 4y ago

>Why not look at actual data, which is likely to tell you that crime has plunged everywhere since the 80s. Overall yes, but not everywhere in my opinion. Many places got safer, but some places got much worse edit: added "Yes, but" for clarification.

ceejayoz 4y ago
Sorta true - there will always be outliers - but not in the way you may think. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/em/summer16/highlight2.html https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/em/summer16/highl... > Disadvantaged neighborhoods have experienced larger drops in crime, although significant disparities persist.

millzlane 4y ago

Did it plunge though, or did people stop reporting, and police stop taking reports? Do we know why it plunged?

Hellbanevil 4y ago
jakelazaroff 4y ago
The murder rate has dropped by about half, and unless you think police are somehow managing to not report corpses, we can probably trust that as at least directionally accurate. Two more trends to consider, over the same period of time: the funding for police has skyrocketed, and the murder clearance rate has plunged. So despite fewer murders occuring and record funding, the police are still solving less of them than at any point in recorded history.
- selectodude 4y ago
  >and the murder clearance rate has plunged. So despite fewer murders occuring and record funding, the police are still solving less of them than at any point in recorded history. Eh, there is no shortage of cops who have gone away for torture and planting evidence to attain those clearance rates. For better or worse, I prefer a low clearance rate than the 99+ percent clearance rate in say, Japan. At least we can be pretty damn sure the people going away for murder right now actually did it.
  - jakelazaroff 4y ago
    I agree with you up until the part where we can be pretty sure the people going away for murder right now did it. This very thread is on an article about how, when a forensic gunshot analysis tool was found to be fabricating evidence, they sued for defamation instead of fixing it. Police still lie and plant evidence all the time, and our carceral system is set up to coerce those suspects into guilty pleas to avoid going to trial. Here’s a Twitter thread with the clearance rate details, if you’re interested [1]. Another damning trend: since the 90s, the decrease in clearance rate has been driven disproportionately by failure to solve murders with Black victims. [1] https://twitter.com/chrishnews/status/1542173173008957441 https://twitter.com/chrishnews/status/1542173173008957441
- mistrial9 4y ago
  add another factor -- an Emergency Room Nurse told me that the murder rate would be substantially higher except for advances in trauma medicine over the last few decades, as well. This is from a city you have heard of in the USA with consistent, serious urban murder rates.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    Other forms of crime, including violent crimes like the sort that might've lead to death before our advances in trauma care - assaults, stabbings, shootings, etc. - are similarly down. It's not just a drop in murder; it's across the board.
steve76 4y ago

chitowneats 4y ago

That's part of the story. What has happened to violent crime rates since June 2020 in the US? I'll leave that as a googling exercise but something tells me you already know and are hand-waving.

not2b 4y ago
You are cherry-picking an endpoint. June 2020 was close to the height of Covid restrictions. Climate change deniers pulled a similar trick, choosing 1998 as an endpoint because it was an unusually hot year.
- chitowneats 4y ago
  I am identifying the beginning of a trend of increasing violent crime. It is still increasing. Murders are higher in 2022 than they were in 2021, which were higher than they were in 2020, in most American cities. Nowhere else in the world had a crime spike like the U.S. Covid restrictions surely exacerbated the situation but they are not the cause.