That’s because all probabilities are conditional, and people don’t consider that. These two things helped me to understand probability better. The Signal and

That’s because all probabilities are conditional, and people don’t consider that. These two things helped me to understand probability better. The Signal and the Noise: https://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-but/dp/0143125087 https://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-bu... The videos for Harvard Statistics 110: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/stat110/home https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/stat110/home