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Germany ignored east europe’s and us’ warnings about too much reliance on a single source of gas and oil and that ignorance is biting back. Perhaps it should ha

Germany ignored east europe’s and us’ warnings about too much reliance on a single source of gas and oil and that ignorance is biting back. Perhaps it should have listened more carefully to its allies, but arrogance often blinds rationale. Germany is heading in towards a rude awakening.

blub 4y ago
Eastern Europe and the US aren’t and weren’t prophetic. Yes, it made total sense to secure alternative energy sources, but nobody predicted this war, unless you want to call those that were always saying that Russia will attack X,Y,Z prophetic. It was foreseeable that there would be tensions and limited conflicts, but not even Ukraine itself was expecting a full-scale invasion until the last moment. Additionally, there was no real scenario under which the EU would be attacked by Russia. Eastern Europe and the Baltics are in NATO. Germany and the EU are heading for a rude awakening. The block is very interconnected and if the German economy is badly damaged, it will take the whole EU with it. The EU did too little before the war and then they did too much too fast.
- yrgulation 4y ago
  I like the spinning of this: “prophetic”. A quieter or stagnating germany would make room for the rest of the eu to grow. East Europe is Germany’s largest economic contributor by means of exports. It should have leveraged that and should have played the game of sanctions that germany so loves to play against its own allies, just so that the obvious risks wouldn't be mocked as “prophecies”. The EU should indeed head for a rude awakening. How did it end up with a corrupt politician such as ursula at its helm? What went wrong and how can we prevent it from happening again? Hint: a more equal and democratic club.
  - hnhg 4y ago
    I feel we’re very much all in for a rude awakening, and must all reckon with corrupt politicians, and the immediate outcome will probably not be a good one.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
  - blub 4y ago
    This would be a good plan if Eastern Europe were less corrupt than Western Europe. It’s not and WE itself is on a downward path.
    - yrgulation 4y ago
      Corruption is not as much an issue as it was, but i appreciate the attempt. Lets entertain the idea a bit. Dolfie thought the same when he invaded east europe and it didnt work out well and ended up with east europe splitting germany in two and dominating history for half a century until just 30 years ago, all while being orders of magnitude more corrupt than today. And it wasnt western europe that made the corrupt eastern block collapse it was the us and the abject failed political and economic model communism imposed. East europe is on a different level in terms of geopolitics and what happens there affects everyone everywhere. Take russia, a corrupt east european country. It is now creating issues that germany can barely handle and frankly poses existential threats to the mighty german industrial base while there are literally entire countries at risk of famine. All because of a corrupt leader’s wet dreams of glory. Corruption doesnt mean lack of power, quite the contrary, it makes it easier to manipulate masses against perceived foes. And the current war has exposed some rather nasty views in germany. Views that dont sit well with east europeans. Feed that narrative to folks and there will be issues for germany that no amount of shitting on them on forums will solve. All i am doing is raising alarm bells that if the most developed country in europe doesnt listen to its allies, and keeps walking the arrogance path, there will be a bad time for everyone. Current events and the sentiment around it in east europe prove me right. South europe faded away but east europe is a whole different beast. As the saying goes, “he who controls eastern europe controls the heartland”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_Hist...
      - blub 4y ago
        Germany and EE (which btw does not include Russia) are economical allies first and foremost, but have different geopolitical concerns and goals. Although here we have to differentiate, because Romania and Bulgaria seem to mind their own business, the Baltics are terrified of Russia, but seem incapable of driving any kind of policy, Hungary’s interested in what’s best for them and Poland’s the same but additionally also partly hostile towards Germany.
Proven 4y ago
Arnt 4y ago
It is? So far it seems that Russia has suffered more from trying to deliver less gas to Germany than Germany has suffered from receiving less. Which was, AIUI, the German assessment. Those warnings sounded a great deal like Colin Powell's assessments of Iraqi weaponry.
- yrgulation 4y ago
  I wish you were right, but russia appears to be marching on, the ruble is not that low, and there is no sign of regime change. It would appear that it all backfired on germany and by extension the eu, just as the prophecy has foretold. Anyway i dont want to delve too much into arm chair politics as i dont think this forum is the right place for it. What i want is for germany and other eu countries to acknowledge mistakes - albeit the situation points to deliberate action - and for the eu to sort out this mess. And most important for the war in ukraine to end so that ukraine will finally join the eu and develop as much as other east eu countries.
  - Arnt 4y ago
    Keep your eyes on the prize and don't fall for Putin's lies. The sanctions weren't intended to affect the ruble's value in any particular way or to effect regime change. I mean it's IMO nice if they were to effect regime change, but it wasn't a design goal. The people who designed them didn't say "oh, if Russia withdraws from Ukraine but Putin remains president that's bad, so let's try to avoid that". They were intended to damage Russia's ability to wage war (and do some other things, which I'll ignore now, I think, because I want to use one concrete example and focus on that). So are they effective at that? Well, you've read that Russia has lost a lot of tanks. Take that as an example. Have you read that Russia is increasing production of its latest tank to compensate, or that it's repairing modern but damaged tanks? You haven't. You've read that Russia is fetching 50-60 year old tanks from storage and sending those to the front. I posit that Russia is doing that because it can't repair modern tanks or make more of the latest model, and that it can't because of the sanctions. That indicates that the sanctions are effective at that part of that stated goal. Putin would love to make people in the west think that the sanctions are ineffective by confusing them about their goals and effectiveness. Don't let him do that.

blub 4y ago

Eastern Europe and the US aren’t and weren’t prophetic. Yes, it made total sense to secure alternative energy sources, but nobody predicted this war, unless you want to call those that were always saying that Russia will attack X,Y,Z prophetic. It was foreseeable that there would be tensions and limited conflicts, but not even Ukraine itself was expecting a full-scale invasion until the last moment. Additionally, there was no real scenario under which the EU would be attacked by Russia. Eastern Europe and the Baltics are in NATO. Germany and the EU are heading for a rude awakening. The block is very interconnected and if the German economy is badly damaged, it will take the whole EU with it. The EU did too little before the war and then they did too much too fast.

yrgulation 4y ago
I like the spinning of this: “prophetic”. A quieter or stagnating germany would make room for the rest of the eu to grow. East Europe is Germany’s largest economic contributor by means of exports. It should have leveraged that and should have played the game of sanctions that germany so loves to play against its own allies, just so that the obvious risks wouldn't be mocked as “prophecies”. The EU should indeed head for a rude awakening. How did it end up with a corrupt politician such as ursula at its helm? What went wrong and how can we prevent it from happening again? Hint: a more equal and democratic club.
- hnhg 4y ago
  I feel we’re very much all in for a rude awakening, and must all reckon with corrupt politicians, and the immediate outcome will probably not be a good one.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- blub 4y ago
  This would be a good plan if Eastern Europe were less corrupt than Western Europe. It’s not and WE itself is on a downward path.
  - yrgulation 4y ago
    Corruption is not as much an issue as it was, but i appreciate the attempt. Lets entertain the idea a bit. Dolfie thought the same when he invaded east europe and it didnt work out well and ended up with east europe splitting germany in two and dominating history for half a century until just 30 years ago, all while being orders of magnitude more corrupt than today. And it wasnt western europe that made the corrupt eastern block collapse it was the us and the abject failed political and economic model communism imposed. East europe is on a different level in terms of geopolitics and what happens there affects everyone everywhere. Take russia, a corrupt east european country. It is now creating issues that germany can barely handle and frankly poses existential threats to the mighty german industrial base while there are literally entire countries at risk of famine. All because of a corrupt leader’s wet dreams of glory. Corruption doesnt mean lack of power, quite the contrary, it makes it easier to manipulate masses against perceived foes. And the current war has exposed some rather nasty views in germany. Views that dont sit well with east europeans. Feed that narrative to folks and there will be issues for germany that no amount of shitting on them on forums will solve. All i am doing is raising alarm bells that if the most developed country in europe doesnt listen to its allies, and keeps walking the arrogance path, there will be a bad time for everyone. Current events and the sentiment around it in east europe prove me right. South europe faded away but east europe is a whole different beast. As the saying goes, “he who controls eastern europe controls the heartland”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_Hist...
    - blub 4y ago
      Germany and EE (which btw does not include Russia) are economical allies first and foremost, but have different geopolitical concerns and goals. Although here we have to differentiate, because Romania and Bulgaria seem to mind their own business, the Baltics are terrified of Russia, but seem incapable of driving any kind of policy, Hungary’s interested in what’s best for them and Poland’s the same but additionally also partly hostile towards Germany.

Proven 4y ago

Arnt 4y ago

It is? So far it seems that Russia has suffered more from trying to deliver less gas to Germany than Germany has suffered from receiving less. Which was, AIUI, the German assessment. Those warnings sounded a great deal like Colin Powell's assessments of Iraqi weaponry.

yrgulation 4y ago
I wish you were right, but russia appears to be marching on, the ruble is not that low, and there is no sign of regime change. It would appear that it all backfired on germany and by extension the eu, just as the prophecy has foretold. Anyway i dont want to delve too much into arm chair politics as i dont think this forum is the right place for it. What i want is for germany and other eu countries to acknowledge mistakes - albeit the situation points to deliberate action - and for the eu to sort out this mess. And most important for the war in ukraine to end so that ukraine will finally join the eu and develop as much as other east eu countries.
- Arnt 4y ago
  Keep your eyes on the prize and don't fall for Putin's lies. The sanctions weren't intended to affect the ruble's value in any particular way or to effect regime change. I mean it's IMO nice if they were to effect regime change, but it wasn't a design goal. The people who designed them didn't say "oh, if Russia withdraws from Ukraine but Putin remains president that's bad, so let's try to avoid that". They were intended to damage Russia's ability to wage war (and do some other things, which I'll ignore now, I think, because I want to use one concrete example and focus on that). So are they effective at that? Well, you've read that Russia has lost a lot of tanks. Take that as an example. Have you read that Russia is increasing production of its latest tank to compensate, or that it's repairing modern but damaged tanks? You haven't. You've read that Russia is fetching 50-60 year old tanks from storage and sending those to the front. I posit that Russia is doing that because it can't repair modern tanks or make more of the latest model, and that it can't because of the sanctions. That indicates that the sanctions are effective at that part of that stated goal. Putin would love to make people in the west think that the sanctions are ineffective by confusing them about their goals and effectiveness. Don't let him do that.