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GDPNow
- unixhero 4y agoThat is indeed a pretty harrowing forecast.
- ncmncm 4y ago"Fed" is not a verb, in this context. The important detail is the rightmost extent of the graph, which inverted would be called "hockey stick".
- rank0 4y agoAfter seeing the market’s reaction to %1.5 interest rates I’m terrified for %5.
- toomuchtodo 4y agoIf you have cashflow and cash on hand, be excited for the coming deals on assets.
- bushbaba 4y agoWe’ve likely hit peak inflation with us now seeing deflationary pressures. Even oil prices have seen the rate of price inflation go down from the last quarter. https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-cha...
- Animats 4y agoThe Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has the same data since 2012.[1] That's a lot more useful. Data on a daily basis has a lot of noise. You can see the COVID recession and rebound. > The important detail is the rightmost extent of the graph, which inverted would be called "hockey stick". Look at the time scale. That's one week. Here's annual since 1929.[2] [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPNOW/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPNOW/ [2] https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543 https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543
- seafoam 4y agoNo, this is a good running estimate for 2Q'22 US Real GDP, as macro data has been released throughout the quarter. In the last week it has gone from meager to ... The implication is that since 1Q official final was negative, it is now highly likely to (eventually) be declared by NBER that the current recession began in early 2022.
- tyrfing 4y agoAs an example of how things evolve, Q1 2022 now stands at -1.6% real GDP. If Q2 was also negative as expected by this forecast, a recession started 6 months ago (as usually defined). Just some context for the "why are people predicting a recession this time?" comments in the various layoff threads.