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I'll add to my earlier comment [1] When the cost of capital increases it's bound to have ripple effect on an entire generation of startups which were founded w
by vishnugupta 4y ago
I'll add to my earlier comment [1]
When the cost of capital increases it's bound to have ripple effect on an entire generation of startups which were founded when money was effectively free (0% interest rate). When it's ingrained in companies' DNA that they have to grow at all cost you can't then suddenly ask them to start focusing on profit. They built this huge structure by ignored fundamentals such as cash-flow, unit-economics, business-model (selling $2 for $1). Now that they have built this 100 story sky-scrapper they can't just go back and fix the foundation. It's going to be a painful process.
It's fascinating to trace the genesis of present crash to Fed's policies post 2008 crisis. The interest rates were kept artificially low to prevent another Great Depression. 2010s saw an unprecedented rally of tech/growth stocks, fuelled by cheap capital. Growth at all cost was the mantra, hoping companies will turn profitable at some point á la Amazon. Uber's CEO hit the nail on the head when he wrote "The average employee at Uber is barely over 30, which means you've spent your career in a long and unprecedented bull run".
There were signs of rate hike in 2019 but COVID forced Fed to create trillions of $$. Which only added fuel to the fire; equities, housing, crypto saw unbelievable growth.
However the signs of inflation were clear in early-mid 2021 they were hoping it to be transitory. But when the inflation data came in late 2021 it turned out to be multi-decade high leaving Fed with no choice but to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade.
Which brings us back to growth companies. As Uber's CEO candidly stated "Channeling Jerry Maguire, we need to show them the money". 2020s will be all about cash flow and efficiency.
On the other hand expect to see cool innovations as it requires genuine scarcity to look for out of the box solutions. While Amazon's stock soared in 2010s their core tech was being built in 2000s while they were relentlessly driving for efficiency.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31369813 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31369813
- mancerayder 4y agoI wonder if that means the "VC-subsidized" companies are going to go out of business. I don't know the list of them, the extent of it, or anything, but from what I understand (again a source would be fantastic), companies like Uber held artificially low prices in order to show customer growth, and for some companies in the face of competition. We have inflation and soon, reduced discretionary spending power which is becoming rapidly more obvious. Airbnb fees are through the roof, and tons of people are choosing hotels over them again. "AirDNA" recently showed a trend towards vacancy, and if you read reddit subs on the topic you'll see hundreds of people piling on saying things like, "I used Airbnb for years, it used to be cheaper than a hotel, now not only is it drastically more expensive with the service and cleaning fees, but the hosts leave a laundry list of TODOs before I check out, and I can't check in til 4pm" Now what?
- vishnugupta 4y agoIt played out similarly with app-based taxis in India (Uber, Ola). They subsidised drivers and riders and it was reliable enough that I had given up driving. However things quickly reverted once they cut-down driver subsidies. The supply tanked immediately and getting a taxi meant waiting for 20-40 minutes and face multiple cancellations. So I gave up and went back to driving. Uber/Ola are on their last breath in India.