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I don't disagree with you, but Russia IS firing the 3M22 Zircon from nuclear subs now. At Mach 9, that's about 2-3 minutes to impact DC. And everyone knows, f

I don't disagree with you, but Russia IS firing the 3M22 Zircon from nuclear subs now. At Mach 9, that's about 2-3 minutes to impact DC. And everyone knows, first strike, best strike. Putin would survive.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> Russia IS firing the 3M22 Zircon from nuclear subs now A semi-ballistic cruise missile. > At Mach 9, that's about 2-3 minutes to impact DC ICBMs go Mach 20+ in their final stage. Falcon 9 flies faster than Zircon. Hypersonics don’t instantly accelerate. Their advantage is in flying low and plasma stealth, both of which are good against ground-based radar but not against anything in the air or in space. If your stealth comes from submarine launch, you gain little from flying hypersonic. It’s faster than cruise or short-range ballistic, but much less accurate for a decapitation strike. > Putin would survive So would most of the U.S. government. (Not the civilian government, perhaps. But again, this is old news.) Certainly almost all of its military.
pdabbadabba 4y ago
He might survive the strike, but would probably not survive the aftermath--just like the rest of us.
bee_rider 4y ago
Why does it matter what order the strikes are in? Unless the first strike somehow manages to wipe out the ability to retaliate, the order just determines how we queue up for the reaper (I guess first is best, there'd be a billions long line).
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > Why does it matter what order the strikes are in? If you know where the other nation's leader is, first strike allows you a better chance at eliminating them. It's a marginal benefit. And Russia is more vulnerable to it. (Putin disappearing could create a violent scramble for power that diminishes its military's retaliatory capabilities in a way that taking out the President and say half the Cabinet would not.)
  - pessimizer 4y ago
    Or not, because Putin is a structure, not a man. Propaganda makes us personalize these things in a way that distorts the decisions we make. edit: if western intelligence had managed to cultivate the number of traitors and the amount of influence that it would take to quickly replace the Russian system, it would already have assassinated Putin. An assassination of Putin right now would unite the Russian public in its hatred for the US, not fragment it. The goal is to make the Russian public miserable enough that the US can get into this position.
    - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
      > assassination of Putin right now would unite the Russian public in its hatred for the US, not fragment it Public opinion is irrelevant when considering decapitations. In Russia or anywhere else. The generals and intelligence agencies are the beginning and end of power in Moscow. Putin is, as a dictator, personally the institution of power. That contrasts blindingly with America’s institution-oriented system. Taking out Putin is roughly similar to taking out the President and his Cabinet and the leaders of Congress. This is the dilemma of dictatorships. It’s weak in a way monarchies weren’t. (It is a weakness the Soviet Union and China (until Xi) didn’t suffer.)

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> Russia IS firing the 3M22 Zircon from nuclear subs now A semi-ballistic cruise missile. > At Mach 9, that's about 2-3 minutes to impact DC ICBMs go Mach 20+ in their final stage. Falcon 9 flies faster than Zircon. Hypersonics don’t instantly accelerate. Their advantage is in flying low and plasma stealth, both of which are good against ground-based radar but not against anything in the air or in space. If your stealth comes from submarine launch, you gain little from flying hypersonic. It’s faster than cruise or short-range ballistic, but much less accurate for a decapitation strike. > Putin would survive So would most of the U.S. government. (Not the civilian government, perhaps. But again, this is old news.) Certainly almost all of its military.

pdabbadabba 4y ago

He might survive the strike, but would probably not survive the aftermath--just like the rest of us.

bee_rider 4y ago

Why does it matter what order the strikes are in? Unless the first strike somehow manages to wipe out the ability to retaliate, the order just determines how we queue up for the reaper (I guess first is best, there'd be a billions long line).

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> Why does it matter what order the strikes are in? If you know where the other nation's leader is, first strike allows you a better chance at eliminating them. It's a marginal benefit. And Russia is more vulnerable to it. (Putin disappearing could create a violent scramble for power that diminishes its military's retaliatory capabilities in a way that taking out the President and say half the Cabinet would not.)
- pessimizer 4y ago
  Or not, because Putin is a structure, not a man. Propaganda makes us personalize these things in a way that distorts the decisions we make. edit: if western intelligence had managed to cultivate the number of traitors and the amount of influence that it would take to quickly replace the Russian system, it would already have assassinated Putin. An assassination of Putin right now would unite the Russian public in its hatred for the US, not fragment it. The goal is to make the Russian public miserable enough that the US can get into this position.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > assassination of Putin right now would unite the Russian public in its hatred for the US, not fragment it Public opinion is irrelevant when considering decapitations. In Russia or anywhere else. The generals and intelligence agencies are the beginning and end of power in Moscow. Putin is, as a dictator, personally the institution of power. That contrasts blindingly with America’s institution-oriented system. Taking out Putin is roughly similar to taking out the President and his Cabinet and the leaders of Congress. This is the dilemma of dictatorships. It’s weak in a way monarchies weren’t. (It is a weakness the Soviet Union and China (until Xi) didn’t suffer.)