4 ms·

UK Household Incomes Are in the Longest-Ever Run of Declines

30 points by Paul_S 4y ago

benj111 4y ago
Well you've got Brexit, Covid, and the war in Ukraine so it's not really surprising.
- Cymrukicks 4y ago
  This is a not true its been an economic choice pretty much across the UK and US to increase profits while suppressing wages. This is the underlying factor in inflation, the shot in the foot didn't help by crashing the pound though. In a microcosm you only need to look at the LGV driver shortage people left the industry as they weren't willing to work for the wages offered but companies simply wouldn't increase them.
  - rightbyte 4y ago
    It is like rental space where I live. The land lords don't decrease the rent since they would have to write down the value of the house and write a loss in the books. So some apartments are empty for artificial profit in the end of the year. I guess the problem with the lorry drivers is that each company wants their competition to also increase wages, and don't want to go first?
  - notriskfree 4y ago
    There is a big poster at the end of my road, that is trying to recruit drivers, with a starting bonus, and reasonable hours and conditions. So all the drivers leaving the industry seem to have at least got their point across to someone.
    - jaclaz 4y ago
      It is not the UK only, here in Italy there was an entrepreneur (in logistics/transports) who was not finding drivers that pointed out how (for a number of reasons, possibly all of them right) to get nowadays a truck driving license (for TIRs) is very costly (both in terms of time and of money, if I recall correctly something like 6,000-10,000 Euro) and there was the issue on how he could pay in advance the costs but there was apparently no legal way to recover them (by keeping a part of the monthly pay of the worker over a "fair" period, I seem to remember 2 years), as it had happened to him that as soon as the candidate drivers would get the driving license they would resign and find work in another company. In the UK I believe part of the problem is/was Brexit because a number of drivers were from eastern EU and they didn't want or could not obtain residence/work permit/whatever needed to continue working in the UK, here (where there is not such a problem for workers from the EU) the lack of them is mainly "concurrent retirement" of a whole generation born between roughly 1955 and 1965 and the initial "access cost" to get the driving license for the young people that may want to start the job.
      - mmarq 4y ago
        > It is not the UK only, here in Italy there was an entrepreneur (in logistics/transports) who was not finding drivers that pointed out how (for a number of reasons, possibly all of them right) to get nowadays a truck driving license (for TIRs) is very costly (both in terms of time and of money, if I recall correctly something like 6,000-10,000 Euro) and there was the issue on how he could pay in advance the costs but there was apparently no legal way to recover them (by keeping a part of the monthly pay of the worker over a "fair" period, I seem to remember 2 years), as it had happened to him that as soon as the candidate drivers would get the driving license they would resign and find work in another company. This is peak Italian entrepreneurship. This guy invested some money in training and then went on TV to play the martyr because he can’t retain employees. Instead of doing the right and most obvious thing, that is paying market salaries, he complaints that indentured labor is no longer legal.
        jaclaz 4y ago
        I didn't see him on TV, I read an article on a newspaper about the issue, I dont' think that there was anyone playing martyr, nor any intention for indentured labor or similar, it was - as I read it at the time - simply a rant about the scarcity of qualified drivers and the difficulties in hiring new workers (unqualified) and assist them in getting the license, as doing that would become a too large investment for the firm, and asked (this is actually italian entrpreneurship) for some form of assistance by the state. At least in the interview he stated that the people would be paid the national contract wage, roughly 3,000 Euro/month net, which is "market salary". Here is the online article (the one on the actual newspaper was longer and more detailed AFAICR): https://www.corriere.it/economia/lavoro/21_agosto_11/cerco-60-autisti-camion-3000-euro-mese-non-li-trovo-b57347be-fa0c-11eb-8ca9-234c5a5d119d.shtml https://www.corriere.it/economia/lavoro/21_agosto_11/cerco-6... (not too bad in Google translate).
        mmarq 4y ago
        In the article it says that he’s not going to pay for the driving license, so the part where he says he’d like to keep the worker for 2 years is missing (I was referring to that as indentured labor). Said that, if you can’t find workers, you are not paying the market clearing salary. Maybe now you have to offer 4K€ for 4 days of work. Proposing that the state pays for these licences is not that insane, it may address a market failure. Many countries, Italy included, have similar programs to help the unemployed find a job.
bediger4000 4y ago
How else are you going to get from a socialist hell hole like the UK was before Thatcher to the God Given paradise of a monarchy complete with hereditary aristocracy? One needs loyalty from servants, after all. How better to get it than an economically deprived populace?
pharmakom 4y ago
Remember Brexit hasn’t even fully landed yet. I don’t see how UK thrives without passporting rights to EU or US.
- MrMan 4y ago
  Brexit was russia funded suicide by the UK
- vladharbuz 4y ago
  You are right, but keep in mind that visas are already being expanded, with new visa tracks being added and restrictions on existing visa tracks being lifted.
  - pharmakom 4y ago
    I am referring to passporting of services.
    - vladharbuz 4y ago
      D'oh, apologies.
throwaway22032 4y ago
In real terms (e.g. after accounting for monetary inflation) this seems like a logical consequence of the coronavirus lockdowns. We're a service economy. Tons of people work to support that, e.g. office cleaners, city centre pubs, transport workers, restaurants, entertainment, karaoke bars etc etc. London is still basically a ghost town in comparison to what it was prior to 2020 and the growth in the regions isn't anywhere close to making up for it. We're just literally doing less stuff. Less labour intensive stuff anyway.
- hotpotamus 4y ago
  Aren't those the logical consequence of widespread work from home? If you believe that WFH is the logical progression of work, then coronavirus was just a catalyst.
  - Nextgrid 4y ago
    You can very well have a system stuck in a local maximum. Even if we assume that WFH is the most optimal state for the system, it may remain stuck in the less optimal state until it gets a "kick in the butt" that pushes it out. When it comes to WFH, that kick was the pandemic.
- pjc50 4y ago
  There was substantial subsidy during the lockdowns. This is the semi-voluntary withdrawal phase; people who are reluctant to risk covid are still reluctant to go out because covid is still quite prevalent (apparently 5% of Scotland has covid at the moment!) and an unclear number of people are suffering from long covid.
Proven 4y ago
Those stats are meaningless. As opposed to what? Where are real incomes increasing? France? Belgium? Real incomes are decreasing everywhere, but slower in countries where governments serve the people rather than globalists and climatists as is the case in the UK, EU and North America.
- mmarq 4y ago
  Real incomes in the UK are still less than what they were in 2007. That’s unique to the UK, as far as I remember.
  - Proven 4y ago

30 points by Paul_S 4y ago

benj111 4y ago

Well you've got Brexit, Covid, and the war in Ukraine so it's not really surprising.

Cymrukicks 4y ago
This is a not true its been an economic choice pretty much across the UK and US to increase profits while suppressing wages. This is the underlying factor in inflation, the shot in the foot didn't help by crashing the pound though. In a microcosm you only need to look at the LGV driver shortage people left the industry as they weren't willing to work for the wages offered but companies simply wouldn't increase them.
- rightbyte 4y ago
  It is like rental space where I live. The land lords don't decrease the rent since they would have to write down the value of the house and write a loss in the books. So some apartments are empty for artificial profit in the end of the year. I guess the problem with the lorry drivers is that each company wants their competition to also increase wages, and don't want to go first?
- notriskfree 4y ago
  There is a big poster at the end of my road, that is trying to recruit drivers, with a starting bonus, and reasonable hours and conditions. So all the drivers leaving the industry seem to have at least got their point across to someone.
  - jaclaz 4y ago
    It is not the UK only, here in Italy there was an entrepreneur (in logistics/transports) who was not finding drivers that pointed out how (for a number of reasons, possibly all of them right) to get nowadays a truck driving license (for TIRs) is very costly (both in terms of time and of money, if I recall correctly something like 6,000-10,000 Euro) and there was the issue on how he could pay in advance the costs but there was apparently no legal way to recover them (by keeping a part of the monthly pay of the worker over a "fair" period, I seem to remember 2 years), as it had happened to him that as soon as the candidate drivers would get the driving license they would resign and find work in another company. In the UK I believe part of the problem is/was Brexit because a number of drivers were from eastern EU and they didn't want or could not obtain residence/work permit/whatever needed to continue working in the UK, here (where there is not such a problem for workers from the EU) the lack of them is mainly "concurrent retirement" of a whole generation born between roughly 1955 and 1965 and the initial "access cost" to get the driving license for the young people that may want to start the job.
    - mmarq 4y ago
      > It is not the UK only, here in Italy there was an entrepreneur (in logistics/transports) who was not finding drivers that pointed out how (for a number of reasons, possibly all of them right) to get nowadays a truck driving license (for TIRs) is very costly (both in terms of time and of money, if I recall correctly something like 6,000-10,000 Euro) and there was the issue on how he could pay in advance the costs but there was apparently no legal way to recover them (by keeping a part of the monthly pay of the worker over a "fair" period, I seem to remember 2 years), as it had happened to him that as soon as the candidate drivers would get the driving license they would resign and find work in another company. This is peak Italian entrepreneurship. This guy invested some money in training and then went on TV to play the martyr because he can’t retain employees. Instead of doing the right and most obvious thing, that is paying market salaries, he complaints that indentured labor is no longer legal.
      - jaclaz 4y ago
        I didn't see him on TV, I read an article on a newspaper about the issue, I dont' think that there was anyone playing martyr, nor any intention for indentured labor or similar, it was - as I read it at the time - simply a rant about the scarcity of qualified drivers and the difficulties in hiring new workers (unqualified) and assist them in getting the license, as doing that would become a too large investment for the firm, and asked (this is actually italian entrpreneurship) for some form of assistance by the state. At least in the interview he stated that the people would be paid the national contract wage, roughly 3,000 Euro/month net, which is "market salary". Here is the online article (the one on the actual newspaper was longer and more detailed AFAICR): https://www.corriere.it/economia/lavoro/21_agosto_11/cerco-60-autisti-camion-3000-euro-mese-non-li-trovo-b57347be-fa0c-11eb-8ca9-234c5a5d119d.shtml https://www.corriere.it/economia/lavoro/21_agosto_11/cerco-6... (not too bad in Google translate).
        mmarq 4y ago
        In the article it says that he’s not going to pay for the driving license, so the part where he says he’d like to keep the worker for 2 years is missing (I was referring to that as indentured labor). Said that, if you can’t find workers, you are not paying the market clearing salary. Maybe now you have to offer 4K€ for 4 days of work. Proposing that the state pays for these licences is not that insane, it may address a market failure. Many countries, Italy included, have similar programs to help the unemployed find a job.

bediger4000 4y ago

How else are you going to get from a socialist hell hole like the UK was before Thatcher to the God Given paradise of a monarchy complete with hereditary aristocracy? One needs loyalty from servants, after all. How better to get it than an economically deprived populace?

pharmakom 4y ago

Remember Brexit hasn’t even fully landed yet. I don’t see how UK thrives without passporting rights to EU or US.

MrMan 4y ago
Brexit was russia funded suicide by the UK
vladharbuz 4y ago
You are right, but keep in mind that visas are already being expanded, with new visa tracks being added and restrictions on existing visa tracks being lifted.
- pharmakom 4y ago
  I am referring to passporting of services.
  - vladharbuz 4y ago
    D'oh, apologies.

throwaway22032 4y ago

In real terms (e.g. after accounting for monetary inflation) this seems like a logical consequence of the coronavirus lockdowns. We're a service economy. Tons of people work to support that, e.g. office cleaners, city centre pubs, transport workers, restaurants, entertainment, karaoke bars etc etc. London is still basically a ghost town in comparison to what it was prior to 2020 and the growth in the regions isn't anywhere close to making up for it. We're just literally doing less stuff. Less labour intensive stuff anyway.

hotpotamus 4y ago
Aren't those the logical consequence of widespread work from home? If you believe that WFH is the logical progression of work, then coronavirus was just a catalyst.
- Nextgrid 4y ago
  You can very well have a system stuck in a local maximum. Even if we assume that WFH is the most optimal state for the system, it may remain stuck in the less optimal state until it gets a "kick in the butt" that pushes it out. When it comes to WFH, that kick was the pandemic.
pjc50 4y ago
There was substantial subsidy during the lockdowns. This is the semi-voluntary withdrawal phase; people who are reluctant to risk covid are still reluctant to go out because covid is still quite prevalent (apparently 5% of Scotland has covid at the moment!) and an unclear number of people are suffering from long covid.

Proven 4y ago

Those stats are meaningless. As opposed to what? Where are real incomes increasing? France? Belgium? Real incomes are decreasing everywhere, but slower in countries where governments serve the people rather than globalists and climatists as is the case in the UK, EU and North America.

mmarq 4y ago
Real incomes in the UK are still less than what they were in 2007. That’s unique to the UK, as far as I remember.
- Proven 4y ago