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I wouldn't classify India vs Pakistan as a world war. The primary nuclear belligerents would be US and Russia. I wouldn't trust the US military industrial compl

I wouldn't classify India vs Pakistan as a world war. The primary nuclear belligerents would be US and Russia. I wouldn't trust the US military industrial complex to be honest about their missile defence capabilities and it worries me that the west is being so cavalier about possible nuclear war.

Retric 4y ago
To be clear, I was suggesting an India vs Pakistan nuclear exchange could be part of a much larger conflict. WWII was called a world war because so many countries where involved and WWIII could similarly spiral even without a US vs Russia nuclear exchange. Anyway, I personally don’t believe the US has a highly effective nuclear defense system, but even the possibility of such changes the calculus of war. The more bombs you need to send to each target the fewer targets you can hit. DC and NYC are presumably fucked either way, but Tuscaloosa Alabama could easily survive the second scenario. It’s completely theoretical at this point, but coming up for plausible scenarios where the Jones Act ends up worthwhile doesn’t seem that difficult.
- cjbgkagh 4y ago
  My expectation is the coming conflict will be between NATO and a Chinese Russian alliance. The US maintains its current standard of living based on cheap Chinese goods, cheap Russian energy (indirectly) and financialization. I expect that none of those things will survive such a conflict. Even if a city avoids getting nuked what life is left for them. Maybe they could get a job at Foxconn.
  - Retric 4y ago
    That’s a common misconception, just over 1/5th of US imports come from China. The US is a net energy exporter.
    - cjbgkagh 4y ago
      Simply look at how much damage the Russian Ukraine war is doing to the US and that is relatively a minor skirmish that the US is not even directly involved with.
      - Retric 4y ago
        The Russian Ukraine war is doing approximately nothing to the US.

Retric 4y ago

To be clear, I was suggesting an India vs Pakistan nuclear exchange could be part of a much larger conflict. WWII was called a world war because so many countries where involved and WWIII could similarly spiral even without a US vs Russia nuclear exchange. Anyway, I personally don’t believe the US has a highly effective nuclear defense system, but even the possibility of such changes the calculus of war. The more bombs you need to send to each target the fewer targets you can hit. DC and NYC are presumably fucked either way, but Tuscaloosa Alabama could easily survive the second scenario. It’s completely theoretical at this point, but coming up for plausible scenarios where the Jones Act ends up worthwhile doesn’t seem that difficult.

cjbgkagh 4y ago
My expectation is the coming conflict will be between NATO and a Chinese Russian alliance. The US maintains its current standard of living based on cheap Chinese goods, cheap Russian energy (indirectly) and financialization. I expect that none of those things will survive such a conflict. Even if a city avoids getting nuked what life is left for them. Maybe they could get a job at Foxconn.
- Retric 4y ago
  That’s a common misconception, just over 1/5th of US imports come from China. The US is a net energy exporter.
  - cjbgkagh 4y ago
    Simply look at how much damage the Russian Ukraine war is doing to the US and that is relatively a minor skirmish that the US is not even directly involved with.
    - Retric 4y ago
      The Russian Ukraine war is doing approximately nothing to the US.