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> While some of what that means for California remains to be seen, parts of the process have already begun, including the steady decline of the Colorado River.
by Barrera 4y ago
> While some of what that means for California remains to be seen, parts of the process have already begun, including the steady decline of the Colorado River. Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir which is located along that river, is now only 150 feet from dipping below its lowest intake valve, officials announced this month.
How much time will it take for a 150-foot drop at current rates of loss? I haven't been able to find an estimate of the rate of loss in the last couple of years. I also imagine that the rate of drop could be non-linear.
- nathanaldensr 4y agoRegarding Lake Mead, it's worse than that: It's now less than 100 feet away from the 950 ft mark. It's already officially considered "inactive pool."
- Fatnino 4y agoIt's probable that the lake gets narrower the lower it is. Assuming a steady removal of n acre feet (a common measure of water volume in reservoirs), the rate at which the water level elevation drops will accelerate as less acreage of surface gets compensated for by more feet dropping. Anecdotally, the water level is dropping fast enough that you come back 2 days later and it's plainly apparent to the eye without looking too closely. So its dropping some significant number of inches per day, and only accelerating.
- AnimalMuppet 4y agoFor back-of-the-envelope calculations, you could model a lake as an inverted pyramid. Each foot of higher surface results in more surface area, both north-south and east-west. So the surface area of the lake is quadratic in elevation above the lowest point, and the volume is cubic in elevation above the lowest point. That's just back of the envelope. I'm sure there are geographical studies of Lake Mead that have accurate numbers.