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That, in the wake of energy shocks from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and everything-else shocks from the zero-covid policy in China, the author can still say wi

That, in the wake of energy shocks from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and everything-else shocks from the zero-covid policy in China, the author can still say with a straight face that free trade will solve our supply problems, can only be the product of motivated reasoning. It's one thing to supplement your domestic production with a bit of temporary outside help, but to allow whole industries to go overseas and have no substantive domestic production, in a nation as large as the USA, makes no sense. Free trade is what got us here. It's like the author slept through the last three years.

Barrin92 4y ago
>have no substantive domestic production, in a nation as large as the USA The US very much still has a domestic manufacturing sector, it just happens to be the case that fewer people work in it.[1] In fact the US manufacturing output is the second largest in the world, on par with China.[2] Insofar as the US does struggle, I don't see the connection to free trade. The US has one of the largest domestic economies, and free trade only comprises about 23% of the American GDP. That makes the US the third least free trade reliant country in the world. Compare that to Germany or South Korea, two strong manufacturing countries in the developed world, where trade is about 4 times(!) as important. [1]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN [2]https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scorecard-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scor... [3]https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS?most_rec...
- baybal2 4y ago
cowpig 4y ago
Can you explain the connection between free trade, covid/russian agression, and the economy? It's not obvious to me
- metabagel 4y ago
  That's not what parent is saying. They are saying there is a connection between Covid and the Russian war in Ukraine; and supply shocks and inflation. They are saying that free trade policies are unrelated and won't solve the current supply shocks and inflation. I agree.
  - beebmam 4y ago
    It's just an opinion. There's no serious argument being made in the comment everyone is replying to. It's just apriori reasoning, not based in evidence, about how the world works. It's fun to read, but it's not founded on reality (evidence), and people should not take it seriously, just like virtually all comments on social media sites.
- metabagel 4y ago
  The other argument which I think is being made is that free trade has led to supply chains which lack redundancy and are susceptible to shocks.
- corrral 4y ago
  Free trade—if it results in greater reliance on foreign suppliers, which it pretty much always does—comes at some national security risk, since you're depending on sources beyond your control for the supply of more goods and resources. To illustrate by extreme example: that your country has realized its greatest Ricardoan(?) comparative advantage potential and has efficiently converted its entire productive capacity to making teacups is not great if there's a global food shortage and you don't produce any food. Shocks to supply and to the economy (so, things like Covid or Russia invading a neighbor) can cause that risk to be realized as harm, or at least cause the risk to be more evident.
- idontpost 4y ago
  Free trade results in most production moving to its most inexpensive location. That's the whole point. Then when bad things happen in that location, you lose that production. The result is that you can't get what you need at any price.
- 4y ago

Barrin92 4y ago

>have no substantive domestic production, in a nation as large as the USA The US very much still has a domestic manufacturing sector, it just happens to be the case that fewer people work in it.[1] In fact the US manufacturing output is the second largest in the world, on par with China.[2] Insofar as the US does struggle, I don't see the connection to free trade. The US has one of the largest domestic economies, and free trade only comprises about 23% of the American GDP. That makes the US the third least free trade reliant country in the world. Compare that to Germany or South Korea, two strong manufacturing countries in the developed world, where trade is about 4 times(!) as important. [1]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN [2]https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scorecard-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scor... [3]https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS?most_rec...

baybal2 4y ago

cowpig 4y ago

Can you explain the connection between free trade, covid/russian agression, and the economy? It's not obvious to me

metabagel 4y ago
That's not what parent is saying. They are saying there is a connection between Covid and the Russian war in Ukraine; and supply shocks and inflation. They are saying that free trade policies are unrelated and won't solve the current supply shocks and inflation. I agree.
- beebmam 4y ago
  It's just an opinion. There's no serious argument being made in the comment everyone is replying to. It's just apriori reasoning, not based in evidence, about how the world works. It's fun to read, but it's not founded on reality (evidence), and people should not take it seriously, just like virtually all comments on social media sites.
metabagel 4y ago
The other argument which I think is being made is that free trade has led to supply chains which lack redundancy and are susceptible to shocks.
corrral 4y ago
Free trade—if it results in greater reliance on foreign suppliers, which it pretty much always does—comes at some national security risk, since you're depending on sources beyond your control for the supply of more goods and resources. To illustrate by extreme example: that your country has realized its greatest Ricardoan(?) comparative advantage potential and has efficiently converted its entire productive capacity to making teacups is not great if there's a global food shortage and you don't produce any food. Shocks to supply and to the economy (so, things like Covid or Russia invading a neighbor) can cause that risk to be realized as harm, or at least cause the risk to be more evident.
idontpost 4y ago
Free trade results in most production moving to its most inexpensive location. That's the whole point. Then when bad things happen in that location, you lose that production. The result is that you can't get what you need at any price.
4y ago