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Whenever this comparison is drawn, it must also be pointed out that after the speculative bubble, the Netherlands has remained for centuries the center of a pro

Whenever this comparison is drawn, it must also be pointed out that after the speculative bubble, the Netherlands has remained for centuries the center of a profitable and stable flower industry that was born in that time. The collapse was real and the speculation was real, but the emergence of a new industry was also real. This is also similar example to the dot com bubble.

bendtheblock 4y ago
nice rebuttal - but the "profitable and stable flower industry" is the trade of an underlying commodity with utility value i.e. the flowers. there is no such underlying asset with crypto. the part that is parallel is the rife speculation that left many bust.
- datadata 4y ago
  Flowers were not a commodity before there was a market for them. Internet did not have commercial value before the speculative wave, in fact very little profits were made even by the end of the dot com boom. Agree there is rife speculation in crypto, but rife speculation does not prove that there won't be future sustained value. When dot com boom imploded it was because people similarly thought there was no value in the internet.
  - bendtheblock 4y ago
    Flowers are used for decoration, dies, teas, scents. Sometimes they may be overvalued. Crypto doesn't have any underlying value. It's just greater fool investing, there is no underlying cashflow, asset or company. Future cash flow comes from greater fools buying in. When you say "the internet" I think you mean the wave of web1 companies? Same as flowers above, there are real uses and value creation, which can be priced in many ways.
    - datadata 4y ago
      In 1999, what web1 companies had cash flows or even a business model that could become profitable? In hindsight it is obvious because we know that things worked out, but at the time it was just speculation, and the crash was the market calling it worthless. Similar objections then around what underlying value is and how the tech was useless. The ways to monetize often were invented much later (eg search ads). If you were a middle age farmer, sure you might like to look at or smell a flower but you would be crazy to say stop growing wheat and plant tulips. But as society advances markets can emerge to serve needs of people that were not possible before. I agree crypto tokens is just speculative investing. But that doesn't imply that the value doesn't stick-- it doesn't have to either collapse to zero or go up forever. Monetary premium is a real thing and necessary for humans to transact. You can't predict what money we will use in the future.
      - bendtheblock 4y ago
        it does imply that the value doesn't stick - in fact that's exactly what I'm saying. there is no value beyond the expectation that another greater fool will buy it from you in future.

bendtheblock 4y ago

nice rebuttal - but the "profitable and stable flower industry" is the trade of an underlying commodity with utility value i.e. the flowers. there is no such underlying asset with crypto. the part that is parallel is the rife speculation that left many bust.

datadata 4y ago
Flowers were not a commodity before there was a market for them. Internet did not have commercial value before the speculative wave, in fact very little profits were made even by the end of the dot com boom. Agree there is rife speculation in crypto, but rife speculation does not prove that there won't be future sustained value. When dot com boom imploded it was because people similarly thought there was no value in the internet.
- bendtheblock 4y ago
  Flowers are used for decoration, dies, teas, scents. Sometimes they may be overvalued. Crypto doesn't have any underlying value. It's just greater fool investing, there is no underlying cashflow, asset or company. Future cash flow comes from greater fools buying in. When you say "the internet" I think you mean the wave of web1 companies? Same as flowers above, there are real uses and value creation, which can be priced in many ways.
  - datadata 4y ago
    In 1999, what web1 companies had cash flows or even a business model that could become profitable? In hindsight it is obvious because we know that things worked out, but at the time it was just speculation, and the crash was the market calling it worthless. Similar objections then around what underlying value is and how the tech was useless. The ways to monetize often were invented much later (eg search ads). If you were a middle age farmer, sure you might like to look at or smell a flower but you would be crazy to say stop growing wheat and plant tulips. But as society advances markets can emerge to serve needs of people that were not possible before. I agree crypto tokens is just speculative investing. But that doesn't imply that the value doesn't stick-- it doesn't have to either collapse to zero or go up forever. Monetary premium is a real thing and necessary for humans to transact. You can't predict what money we will use in the future.
    - bendtheblock 4y ago
      it does imply that the value doesn't stick - in fact that's exactly what I'm saying. there is no value beyond the expectation that another greater fool will buy it from you in future.