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Both the rabid pro-crypto and rabid anti-crypto people seem to be missing that the prices move on the monetary policy of the United Stated Federal Reserve: more

Both the rabid pro-crypto and rabid anti-crypto people seem to be missing that the prices move on the monetary policy of the United Stated Federal Reserve: more visibly the FOMC target guidance, the underwater part of the iceberg is the balance sheet. Global finance is a big deal, to put it mildly. Crypto is a flea on the ass of the foreign exchange market (which it superficially resembles), which is a bacterium on the ass of the derivatives market. It’s. Just. Not. That big of a deal. There’s been a lot of scams, some serious people here and there are doing real work in the space (don’t argue with me: take it up with Liskov and Waddler). But if we put the wisdom of crowds on a forum like this to work on the dog wagging the tail with the flea on it, it would be a potentially useful discussion. Le sigh.

ramesh31 4y ago
>It’s. Just. Not. That big of a deal. Yup. Total crypto market cap is less than a couple of large S&P 500 companies. The SNR is just so insane in that community that it seems like a bigger deal than it is.
elil17 4y ago
Crypto has social effects (wasting energy production capacity, scams, wasting computer hardware and chip fab capacity) outside of its economic effects that do make it a big deal.
- cowtools 4y ago
  I've argued in another thread that we can expect those adverse effects to decrease as hype dies down and the coinbase reward for bitcoin and others decreases.
- benreesman 4y ago
  You’re seriously here to make the case that these basis points on the numbers that move real human beings around like pieces on a chessboard is why HN foams at the mouth over cyber-money? The energy cost is debatable (energy displacement is complex), the ASICs used to mine BTC are keeping someone’s Verilog sharp, and scams? There are 17 payday loan places in a 3 mile radius of my house, not counting pawn shops. This is not enlightened humanitarianism. Everyone on here knows an annoying asshole who rubs it in everyone’s face that they’re generationally wealthy over a speculative bet in 2015. I fucking hate intellectual dishonesty. Especially from smart people.
Ologn 4y ago
> It’s. Just. Not. That big of a deal. There are trailing indicators and leading indicators. The fact that something like Dogecoin can be invented as a joke (according to its investors) and be said to have a market cap of over $8 billion is an indicator - that's 8 "unicorns". Bitcoin's market cap is over $350 billion. You are right that it has to be seen in the context of global finance, but other parts of global finance were bubbly at the end of last year, and if there's confusion over that, Dogecoin's 8 billion dollar market cap is an indicator, even if eight billion dollar is not that much in the context of global finance.
- benreesman 4y ago
  So trade it! Anyone who talks about market price action in the short/medium-term a priori doesn’t have alpha. People with Alpha trade it.

ramesh31 4y ago

>It’s. Just. Not. That big of a deal. Yup. Total crypto market cap is less than a couple of large S&P 500 companies. The SNR is just so insane in that community that it seems like a bigger deal than it is.

elil17 4y ago

Crypto has social effects (wasting energy production capacity, scams, wasting computer hardware and chip fab capacity) outside of its economic effects that do make it a big deal.

cowtools 4y ago
I've argued in another thread that we can expect those adverse effects to decrease as hype dies down and the coinbase reward for bitcoin and others decreases.
benreesman 4y ago
You’re seriously here to make the case that these basis points on the numbers that move real human beings around like pieces on a chessboard is why HN foams at the mouth over cyber-money? The energy cost is debatable (energy displacement is complex), the ASICs used to mine BTC are keeping someone’s Verilog sharp, and scams? There are 17 payday loan places in a 3 mile radius of my house, not counting pawn shops. This is not enlightened humanitarianism. Everyone on here knows an annoying asshole who rubs it in everyone’s face that they’re generationally wealthy over a speculative bet in 2015. I fucking hate intellectual dishonesty. Especially from smart people.

Ologn 4y ago

> It’s. Just. Not. That big of a deal. There are trailing indicators and leading indicators. The fact that something like Dogecoin can be invented as a joke (according to its investors) and be said to have a market cap of over $8 billion is an indicator - that's 8 "unicorns". Bitcoin's market cap is over $350 billion. You are right that it has to be seen in the context of global finance, but other parts of global finance were bubbly at the end of last year, and if there's confusion over that, Dogecoin's 8 billion dollar market cap is an indicator, even if eight billion dollar is not that much in the context of global finance.

benreesman 4y ago
So trade it! Anyone who talks about market price action in the short/medium-term a priori doesn’t have alpha. People with Alpha trade it.