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> But, you can't grow forever. At some point you hit things like the maximum market size and there's no longer any way to invest your profits back into growth.

> But, you can't grow forever. At some point you hit things like the maximum market size and there's no longer any way to invest your profits back into growth. Atlassian is probably a fair bit away from that. Amazon is much closer to that mark today but they got there after following exactly this strategy since the 90s.

zerkten 4y ago
>> Atlassian is probably a fair bit away from that. How do you justify that? One way Atlassian's market size gets limited is by being viewed as a competitor to Microsoft (or other large incumbent's) products. Some customers can choose both, but not everyone can. The feature and experience differences don't matter much to the buyers (procurement), so if something is cheaper elsewhere, then it's a harder sell. It also increases risk in a potential recession where Atlassian is viewed as a luxury option. I feel like JetBrains play a smarter game here. It feels like folks have forgotten how bad a niche developer tools have been. Circumstances have meant that VCs have been throwing money at developer tools and developer experience has been in vogue. Things will probably be better in this wave than previous ones, but it's still much riskier than other markets. Developers may rule the world, but the software powering their day-to-day is very different between software companies and the majority building line-of-business software.
- mbesto 4y ago
  > How do you justify that? I don't think people, even here, understand how simply large and growing the market is for software development tools. https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2022-04-06-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-it-spending-to-reach-4-point-four-trillion-in-2022 https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2022-04-0...
CuriouslyC 4y ago
Amazon is a bit of a unicorn in this regard though. They've been able to consistently pivot profits into expanding services into new (but highly related) areas. Most companies are overly aggressive in trying to chase exponential growth, they end up outgrowing their competence.

zerkten 4y ago

>> Atlassian is probably a fair bit away from that. How do you justify that? One way Atlassian's market size gets limited is by being viewed as a competitor to Microsoft (or other large incumbent's) products. Some customers can choose both, but not everyone can. The feature and experience differences don't matter much to the buyers (procurement), so if something is cheaper elsewhere, then it's a harder sell. It also increases risk in a potential recession where Atlassian is viewed as a luxury option. I feel like JetBrains play a smarter game here. It feels like folks have forgotten how bad a niche developer tools have been. Circumstances have meant that VCs have been throwing money at developer tools and developer experience has been in vogue. Things will probably be better in this wave than previous ones, but it's still much riskier than other markets. Developers may rule the world, but the software powering their day-to-day is very different between software companies and the majority building line-of-business software.

mbesto 4y ago
> How do you justify that? I don't think people, even here, understand how simply large and growing the market is for software development tools. https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2022-04-06-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-it-spending-to-reach-4-point-four-trillion-in-2022 https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2022-04-0...

CuriouslyC 4y ago

Amazon is a bit of a unicorn in this regard though. They've been able to consistently pivot profits into expanding services into new (but highly related) areas. Most companies are overly aggressive in trying to chase exponential growth, they end up outgrowing their competence.