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This article's finger is on the right place, but IMO the analysis is off. Netflix, has recently excited the fundamental/rationalist investor camp. The huge val
by dalbasal 4y ago
This article's finger is on the right place, but IMO the analysis is off.
Netflix, has recently excited the fundamental/rationalist investor camp. The huge valuations hot tech companies enjoy must eventually be justified by a "Thiel Monopoly." That's the only way to earn the 20%-50% margins that Google/Apple/Meta can achieve. Netflix sells a cheap consumer product. One product among several similar options. Consumers are savvy, with many jumping between subscriptions for deals and variety. Content producers have market power, because multiple buyers.
In short, textbook microeconomics is afoot. That means competition, efficiency and low margins. That means "startup economics" don't apply. The market is not going to let Netflix sit on massive margins and monopoly market share. Newschool tech investors see this as an abomination. Old schoolers see it as cosmic justice.
Anyway.. those who desire market rationality love Netflix and are applying the Netflix analysis to everything.
Atlassian is a different story entirely. They actually sell software. Enterprise software, really. There are no content producers squeezing them for a bigger cut. The companies who pay them aren't price sensitive, and they are locked in enough. This is not the "microeconomic normality" monster that bit Netflix. Atlassian's business model is fine. Competition isn't the problem, and neither is consumer bargaining power.
Atlassian's problem is that they haven't done good enough. The bar, set by both tech history and the $150bn peak valuation, is that Atlassian becomes a microsoft.. at least a SalesForce, IMB or somesuch. Where's Atlassian's challenge to AWS? When is Atlassian leading the WFH revolution. How will Atlassian become the organisational nervous system of the modern knowledge firm?
It just doesn't look likely that Atlassian is going to achieve that kind of big-hairy-goal. The products have a crusty, uninspiring feel. The take over the world vibe is missing.
So... Atlassian's valuation is down. I doubt the share price will ever approach "rational." Software companies have value, and the floor is set by opportunistic M&A. If stock markets don't want TEAM @ 10X revenue or more... someone will buy them.
- geodel 4y ago> The companies who pay them aren't price sensitive, and they are locked in enough. I doubt this is true lately. I have seen even more critical ticketing system like ServiceNow/Cherwell/Remedy getting replaced. We replaced Slack with other chat software because of licensing cost. Big companies are not price sensitive seems like old theory. Because I am seeing in so many large companies increasing license fee is causing replacement of existing products.
- dalbasal 4y agoI didn't mean that lock-in is absolute. I mean that this is not netflix. Customers don't hop around for fun.