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I don't think it's crazy. You're valuing the company as a mature dividend paying company - one that is paying out to share holders the profits it makes, not inv
by SilverBirch 4y ago
I don't think it's crazy. You're valuing the company as a mature dividend paying company - one that is paying out to share holders the profits it makes, not investing further to grow. But that's not a reasonable way to value Atlassian, they're a growth company.
I think the expectation of the market is pretty simple, Atlassian grow by 30%+ YoY for the foreseeable future, which isn't totally unreasonable, and that their costs aren't going to scale with that growth because they're a software business.
If they grow 30% YoY for the next 5 years they'll be pulling in $10Bn in revenue, and maybe sales scale proportionally so call that 25% of revenue, R&D stays more or less flat at $1Bn - let's double it to $2Bn to be generous, Administrative stays fairly nominal at 500m. Hey presto, you've got a company with a tidy $5Bn annual profit. Discount that back to todays prices and that doesn't sound crazy. And all that is assuming is that Atlassian is fully matured in 5 years and not still growing.
To be clear, this is all just very hand wavey numbers, but it's not totally incredible.