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> In short, we are positive about the economy’s fundamentals and believe they can provide ballast in the event of a recession. Nonetheless, the bear-market bott
by superb-owl 4y ago
> In short, we are positive about the economy’s fundamentals and believe they can provide ballast in the event of a recession. Nonetheless, the bear-market bottom for stocks may still be 5%-10% away.
This is a bold prediction given that multiples are near all time highs [1]. The Schiller PE ratio suggests that in historically normal times stocks would be worth 50-60% less than they are today, and monetary policy is quickly returning to normal.
[1] https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
- _uy6i 4y agoWhile I’m not bullish I think markets are now closer to fairly valued than extreme over valuation, on a Schiller PE basis we are somewhere between the 5 and 10 year trailing averages, the 20 year average puts you at 25.9x which is a 12% drop from here. Sure the 40 year average is at 23.8x but if you used that as a gauge of fair value the only time you would have been below that was the depths of the financial crisis.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]