6 ms·

Do mask mandates work? Bay Area Covid data from June says no

47 points by scifibestfi 4y ago

paulpauper 4y ago
Just another example of 'trusting the science' not being as self-evident as commonly assumed. Science is supposed to be tested, not just blindly trusted.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- swechsler 4y ago
  It's worth noting that the story was for mask mandates, not masks in general. I'm reasonably certain that the science still says that masks can be effective in preventing the spread of Covid.
jdlyga 4y ago
Well, trust the science. If it doesn't work, we shouldn't mandate it.
- codefreeordie 4y ago
  That's not what "Trust the science" means. This science isn't "the science" because it doesn't reach the enforced narrative's required conclusion.
swayvil 4y ago
Wearing a mask lets everybody know that we are still in the midst of a very dangerous pandemic. It shows me that you take it seriously. It shows me who takes responsibility for the well-being of their fellow citizens and who doesn't. So even if it serves no practical purpose, it still serves a very important ritualistic purpose.
- jriot 4y ago
  In all honesty, are you serious?
  - swayvil 4y ago
    Surely it's obvious.
- proc0 4y ago
  I'd rather breathe more easily.
- aaron695 4y ago
- boeingUH60 4y ago
  I’m all for caution and taking safety protocol seriously in the midst of such a situation…but jeez, this thing has morphed into a religion for some people. I’m not sure if it’s sarcasm, so I’ll politely ask…Are you really judging who “takes responsibility for the well-being of their fellow citizens and who doesn't” by mask wearing, at a time when we have widespread availability of Covid vaccines and treatments?
- 90d 4y ago
  Choosing not to play part in what has become political theater has zero relevance to my civic duty. A cloth mask for you does the same as a blanket for a child. It provides a false sense of security and is a breeding ground for bacteria.
- tomohawk 4y ago
  Wearing a mask lets everyone know what team you're on. This allows people to disrespect others with an easily visible item. It also allows the powers that be to think they are in control and doing something useful.
  - swayvil 4y ago
    I think that the powers that be are more interested in convincing us that they are in control and doing something useful.
swayvil 4y ago
This post disappeared from the front page pretty darn quick.
anm89 4y ago
"working" implies that the goal of mask mandates is to reduce covid and not political theatre so some person in charge could say "we managed the situation". The mandate worked exactly as intended. Worth pointing out that there is nothing conspiratorial about this. It exactly aligns with the real life decision making process of how things like this get enacted
- pyronik19 4y ago
  Yes government bureaucrats got to drag political enemies off planes and kick them out of restaurants on the basis of wrongthink, masquerading dogma as science.
softwarebeware 4y ago
Just a couple things to note, which make this far from being a case against masking, or mask mandates: - The data is from one county in CA ... - ... for the time period June 3 - June 25, about 3 weeks - Neighboring counties did not have mask mandates at the time, meaning that anyone traveling between counties and not wearing their mask would have spread COVID-19 to Alameda County just as well as if no mask mandate existed - The article notes that the most likely explanation for the lack of a different outcome from neighboring counties is that people either do not follow mask mandates or do not wear effective masks Pretty much a non-sequitor article AFAICT
- aeternum 4y ago
  >Neighboring counties did not have mask mandates at the time, meaning that anyone traveling between counties and not wearing their mask would have spread COVID-19 to Alameda County just as well as if no mask mandate existed So masking is not effective unless we also ban travel from non-mask mandated areas? This very point seems to confirm that masking mandates can't work unless implemented in conjunction with a strict travel ban (which is impractical).
  - potbelly83 4y ago
    Masking might not be effective on a population level, true, but on an individual level it may make a difference (wear N95, proper fit, etc etc ....) Still I agree, this does supply evidence against mandates. Off topic but reminds me reading about how on a population level humans congregating in towns/cities was great, but terrible at an individual level (more diseases etc...)
bediger4000 4y ago
I'm a little confused. There are some studies that show wearing a mask on public transit helps: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7976046/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7976046/ https://npli.sph.harvard.edu/resources-2/aviation-public-health-initiative-aphi/ https://npli.sph.harvard.edu/resources-2/aviation-public-hea... And I'll grant there's some other studies that show individual mask wearing makes no difference on modern airplanes. But a lot of modern life is conducted in environments more similar to buses than to 767s that have HEPA filters and engineered airflows through the cabin. This suggests that there are other things complicating the situation, doesn't it?
TrapLord_Rhodo 4y ago
I wonder how future generations will judge us. These last years have showed how weak little sheep we all are. The US has spent more in the last 2 years than our entire countries history, we are racked with debt and stuck in 30 different wars. & yet we are still discussing covid and abortion. We stopped working for TWO YEARS, made things that were proven to be false from the start, the norm and have somehow seem to have just moved on. I was canceled at work, some social & professional cicles for calling out the absolute absurdity of masks in general but especially cloth & bandanas. When i spoke about the absolute onslaught of studies that have showed our data was all f*cked and we couldn't make any logical assumptions out of it. We had plans in place to quarantine the old and sickly and we did the exact opposite. I've always tried to understand how people could fight in hitlers army, now i have my answer. It's much easier to posture and social gesture your way to hell than it is to stand against the immoral tide.
- bsder 4y ago
  Except that mask mandates aren't worthless. We have relatively controlled studies in other countries demonstrating where one area got masks and another area didn't that there was a fairly clear difference in transmission rate. What are useless are mask mandates when you have a large cohort that simply won't comply or will anti-comply. Which is what we had in the US--both from political intransigence (Covid is a hoax) as well as general stupidity (Remember the police in CA having to break up a block party in the middle of Covid?) as well as general intransigence (Remember a handful of illegal gatherings being responsible for 80% of the Covid cases in California at the beginning? I do.). This shouldn't have even needed to be a mandate. It should have been common sense. It should have been protecting your fellow man. But, here, we are.
  - edmcnulty101 4y ago
    >protecting your fellow man I've been homeless before multiple times. Fellow man does not look out for me. That's the beauty of FREEDOM. I dont have to protect my fellow man because fellow man is mostly shitty. My body my choice is my favorite slogan ever.
  - 4y ago
wrp 4y ago
It will help to keep this kind of news in perspective if you remember that mask mandate studies are very blunt instruments. You identify (preferably large) communities experiencing an outbreak, some with and some without mask mandates, then compare contagion rates. We have over a century of this kind research and the results are very consistent that mask mandates make no overall difference. However, more focused research appears to support that masking does have some positive effect in situations of close contact and limited ventilation. This topic has been done to death over the past couple years, and you can find references in previous HN threads.
- josephcsible 4y ago
  If mask mandates make no overall difference, but help in some cases, doesn't that imply that they must cause harm in some other cases?
  - wrp 4y ago
    The broad answer is no, first of all because the narrow situations where masks are believed to help would not amount to a significant difference when considering the effect on an entire community. Secondly, I said "believed" because the evidence is actually rather limited and ambiguous, so the promotion of masks is based more on plausibility rather than firm proof. However, there does appear to be slight but consistent evidence for greater contagion rates in the general community when there is a mask mandate.

47 points by scifibestfi 4y ago

Just another example of 'trusting the science' not being as self-evident as commonly assumed. Science is supposed to be tested, not just blindly trusted.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
swechsler 4y ago
It's worth noting that the story was for mask mandates, not masks in general. I'm reasonably certain that the science still says that masks can be effective in preventing the spread of Covid.

jdlyga 4y ago

Well, trust the science. If it doesn't work, we shouldn't mandate it.

codefreeordie 4y ago
That's not what "Trust the science" means. This science isn't "the science" because it doesn't reach the enforced narrative's required conclusion.

swayvil 4y ago

Wearing a mask lets everybody know that we are still in the midst of a very dangerous pandemic. It shows me that you take it seriously. It shows me who takes responsibility for the well-being of their fellow citizens and who doesn't. So even if it serves no practical purpose, it still serves a very important ritualistic purpose.

jriot 4y ago
In all honesty, are you serious?
- swayvil 4y ago
  Surely it's obvious.
proc0 4y ago
I'd rather breathe more easily.
aaron695 4y ago
boeingUH60 4y ago
I’m all for caution and taking safety protocol seriously in the midst of such a situation…but jeez, this thing has morphed into a religion for some people. I’m not sure if it’s sarcasm, so I’ll politely ask…Are you really judging who “takes responsibility for the well-being of their fellow citizens and who doesn't” by mask wearing, at a time when we have widespread availability of Covid vaccines and treatments?
90d 4y ago
Choosing not to play part in what has become political theater has zero relevance to my civic duty. A cloth mask for you does the same as a blanket for a child. It provides a false sense of security and is a breeding ground for bacteria.
tomohawk 4y ago
Wearing a mask lets everyone know what team you're on. This allows people to disrespect others with an easily visible item. It also allows the powers that be to think they are in control and doing something useful.
- swayvil 4y ago
  I think that the powers that be are more interested in convincing us that they are in control and doing something useful.

swayvil 4y ago

This post disappeared from the front page pretty darn quick.

anm89 4y ago

"working" implies that the goal of mask mandates is to reduce covid and not political theatre so some person in charge could say "we managed the situation". The mandate worked exactly as intended. Worth pointing out that there is nothing conspiratorial about this. It exactly aligns with the real life decision making process of how things like this get enacted

pyronik19 4y ago
Yes government bureaucrats got to drag political enemies off planes and kick them out of restaurants on the basis of wrongthink, masquerading dogma as science.

softwarebeware 4y ago

Just a couple things to note, which make this far from being a case against masking, or mask mandates: - The data is from one county in CA ... - ... for the time period June 3 - June 25, about 3 weeks - Neighboring counties did not have mask mandates at the time, meaning that anyone traveling between counties and not wearing their mask would have spread COVID-19 to Alameda County just as well as if no mask mandate existed - The article notes that the most likely explanation for the lack of a different outcome from neighboring counties is that people either do not follow mask mandates or do not wear effective masks Pretty much a non-sequitor article AFAICT

aeternum 4y ago
>Neighboring counties did not have mask mandates at the time, meaning that anyone traveling between counties and not wearing their mask would have spread COVID-19 to Alameda County just as well as if no mask mandate existed So masking is not effective unless we also ban travel from non-mask mandated areas? This very point seems to confirm that masking mandates can't work unless implemented in conjunction with a strict travel ban (which is impractical).
- potbelly83 4y ago
  Masking might not be effective on a population level, true, but on an individual level it may make a difference (wear N95, proper fit, etc etc ....) Still I agree, this does supply evidence against mandates. Off topic but reminds me reading about how on a population level humans congregating in towns/cities was great, but terrible at an individual level (more diseases etc...)

bediger4000 4y ago

I'm a little confused. There are some studies that show wearing a mask on public transit helps: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7976046/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7976046/ https://npli.sph.harvard.edu/resources-2/aviation-public-health-initiative-aphi/ https://npli.sph.harvard.edu/resources-2/aviation-public-hea... And I'll grant there's some other studies that show individual mask wearing makes no difference on modern airplanes. But a lot of modern life is conducted in environments more similar to buses than to 767s that have HEPA filters and engineered airflows through the cabin. This suggests that there are other things complicating the situation, doesn't it?

TrapLord_Rhodo 4y ago

I wonder how future generations will judge us. These last years have showed how weak little sheep we all are. The US has spent more in the last 2 years than our entire countries history, we are racked with debt and stuck in 30 different wars. & yet we are still discussing covid and abortion. We stopped working for TWO YEARS, made things that were proven to be false from the start, the norm and have somehow seem to have just moved on. I was canceled at work, some social & professional cicles for calling out the absolute absurdity of masks in general but especially cloth & bandanas. When i spoke about the absolute onslaught of studies that have showed our data was all f*cked and we couldn't make any logical assumptions out of it. We had plans in place to quarantine the old and sickly and we did the exact opposite. I've always tried to understand how people could fight in hitlers army, now i have my answer. It's much easier to posture and social gesture your way to hell than it is to stand against the immoral tide.

bsder 4y ago
Except that mask mandates aren't worthless. We have relatively controlled studies in other countries demonstrating where one area got masks and another area didn't that there was a fairly clear difference in transmission rate. What are useless are mask mandates when you have a large cohort that simply won't comply or will anti-comply. Which is what we had in the US--both from political intransigence (Covid is a hoax) as well as general stupidity (Remember the police in CA having to break up a block party in the middle of Covid?) as well as general intransigence (Remember a handful of illegal gatherings being responsible for 80% of the Covid cases in California at the beginning? I do.). This shouldn't have even needed to be a mandate. It should have been common sense. It should have been protecting your fellow man. But, here, we are.
- edmcnulty101 4y ago
  >protecting your fellow man I've been homeless before multiple times. Fellow man does not look out for me. That's the beauty of FREEDOM. I dont have to protect my fellow man because fellow man is mostly shitty. My body my choice is my favorite slogan ever.
- 4y ago

wrp 4y ago

It will help to keep this kind of news in perspective if you remember that mask mandate studies are very blunt instruments. You identify (preferably large) communities experiencing an outbreak, some with and some without mask mandates, then compare contagion rates. We have over a century of this kind research and the results are very consistent that mask mandates make no overall difference. However, more focused research appears to support that masking does have some positive effect in situations of close contact and limited ventilation. This topic has been done to death over the past couple years, and you can find references in previous HN threads.

josephcsible 4y ago
If mask mandates make no overall difference, but help in some cases, doesn't that imply that they must cause harm in some other cases?
- wrp 4y ago
  The broad answer is no, first of all because the narrow situations where masks are believed to help would not amount to a significant difference when considering the effect on an entire community. Secondly, I said "believed" because the evidence is actually rather limited and ambiguous, so the promotion of masks is based more on plausibility rather than firm proof. However, there does appear to be slight but consistent evidence for greater contagion rates in the general community when there is a mask mandate.