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This is a radical and somewhat risky plan. But I think we should fully explore it. The best plan, Plan A, would be drastically and immediately decarbonize and
by lukev 4y ago
This is a radical and somewhat risky plan. But I think we should fully explore it.
The best plan, Plan A, would be drastically and immediately decarbonize and cut CO2 emissions globally.
However, we have ample evidence that that is not going to happen, or at least not fast enough. This is a tremendously difficult problem because it requires a supermajority of actors to agree on a course of action, despite some game-theoretic reasons not to. Without a dramatic geopolitical shift, it's simply not going to happen.
Geoengineering is Plan B, strictly inferior to plan A. But it has the advantage that one sufficiently wealthy state or actor can do it unilaterally, meaning there is a non-zero chance of it actually happening.
Right now I am pessimistic enough about Plan A that I expect Plan B may be necessary if we want to avoid the horrors of a +4.5c climate change. And I sincerely hope someone eventually has the balls to do it (after a massive amount of scientific due diligence to mitigate risks like termination shock.)
- baggy_trough 4y agoYour Plan A is not the best plan because it ignores human nature and is consequently unrealistic, as you recognize. The best plan should be achievable.
- LudwigNagasena 4y agoSo you think that the obstacles in front of the worldwide de-industrialization stem only from game-theoretic reasons and have nothing to do with massive economic consequences that will disturb the welfare of all people on Earth including precarious populations?
- ncmncm 4y agoWorldwide transition from extractive to renewable energy would bring on prosperity like nothing else you can imagine.
- LudwigNagasena 4y ago> drastically and immediately
- ncmncm 4y agoPlan A + Plan B is strictly worse than Plan A, however much success Plan A has. Anything with Plan B in means certain catastrophe. But promoting Plan B demonstrably generates enough sick fascination to distract from determination to make Plan A work.