I see it as a case of the Availability Heuristic[1] striking hard. Say you make 100 decisions in a day, and your expertise yields an obvious, high-quality answ

I see it as a case of the Availability Heuristic[1] striking hard. Say you make 100 decisions in a day, and your expertise yields an obvious, high-quality answer in 98 of them. When you think back to that day, the remaining 2 (which didn’t so yield) will dominate your memory of what happened. In that case, it will feel like all you did was make non-rigorous, poorly-grounded guesses … but that impression is wrong. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic