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Yeah, that's possible too. I'm certainly no economic expert, but my understanding is that bear markets typically last less than 2 years on average. But who know

Yeah, that's possible too. I'm certainly no economic expert, but my understanding is that bear markets typically last less than 2 years on average. But who knows? Your guess is as good as mine.

jfim 4y ago
> bear markets typically last less than 2 years on average According to a quick Google search, bull markets also last four to six years on average. The current bull market has been going on for about thirteen years now.
- DragonStrength 4y ago
  We're at a generational change in political control for the first time in four decades, in uncharted territory with low interest rates (as you note), and looking at increased wealth inequality and as assets have raged unchecked (same as previous point basically). I think our conventional wisdom is failing here because we have not considered that the voting preferences will rapidly change over the next 8 years. Of course, the massive buffer there to my theory is Millennials will be the ones inheriting the bulk of these assets over the same time frame. Perhaps they will decide generational wealth isn't so bad once it is in their accounts.
  - oblio 4y ago
    > We're at a generational change in political control for the first time in four decades Where and how?
    - justinzollars 4y ago
      Read Ray Dalio's Essays on the Long Term Debt Cycle. No one knows how this will end for sure, but it is a unique time in history.
  - yeaso9 4y ago
    Maybe Millennials won’t, but Gen Z polls favor progressive politics by wider margin than ahead of Millennials. Gen Zs political lean has not softened as they age into their late 20s, as it did with Millennials and older. Minus their elders, Gen X is not a powerful enough political force in another decade to avoid capitulating on new new deal type government. Gen X is pre Information Age, no where near as savvy and aware of how technological society works, raised by a still very God-headed society (the US recently just crossed a threshold of <50% believing in higher powers; was >80% around 2000). Urban growth has seen fewer teens get a license. Pee wee leagues participation was down before covid, as parents worried about future health, and cratered due to covid. Some unis have ended early education programs due to low enrollment. Essential workers are not staying in essential jobs as long, as they’ve seen they’re just a target for abuse by people who can’t feed themselves. 80% of nurses are considering leaving the field as they’ve just seen Americans rely on them like a mother rather than care for themselves. There are a lot of trends that are really interesting to see, and the big gorilla is a bunch of senile leaders like Feinstein who apparently forgets peoples names minutes after introductions, and others who can’t understand ideas that aren’t presented in folksy slang. American agency is a lot like her memory; giving way to something else.
    - DragonStrength 4y ago
      > Gen Zs political lean has not softened as they age into their late 20s, as it did with Millennials and older. A quick search for generational boundaries put the consensus at around 1997, which would make the oldest 25 years old. I don't think there is any data to analyze about how their leanings will change. They've barely left college and during the most significant global crisis of most living people's lifetimes.
    - scarface74 4y ago
      Demographically you might be right about where the majority of the population leans. But it doesn’t matter. Between the “small state bias” of the electoral college and gerrymandering, the minority are going to rule for the foreseeable future. The Democrats have now lost the Presidency twice in the last thirty years while winning the popular votes and are underrepresented in congress in comparison to the popular vote. Most Americans disapprove of the recent Supreme Court ruling on abortion - even Republicans.
  - airbreather 4y ago
    Demographics are the only real broad brush crystal ball - we are now for the first time on the downward slope of the generational wave of increased consumption that the baby boomers historically brought to the consumer driven end of the globe, a different paradigm will emerge. As for inheritance, you can almost make a certain bet that once the scope of transference starts to reach substantial proportions that the worlds governments will find novel and pervasive ways of garnishing taxes from such movements of wealth.
- ac29 4y ago
  > The current bull market has been going on for about thirteen years now. There was a bear market during the 2020 recession.
nly 4y ago
The following article will give you some perspective "Bear markets: what they are, how long they last, and how to invest during them" https://monevator.com/bear-markets/ https://monevator.com/bear-markets/
RickJWagner 4y ago
"Your guess is as good as mine." Exactly right. If you look at Yahoo news, you'll find several articles from 'experts' daily that predict either imminent doom or a sudden rise in stock prices. On the same day. The great John Bogle said "Nobody knows nothing", meaning that nobody can predict where the market is going in the short term. (Long term, it's an up-and-right trend.) Your guess is absolutely as good as anyone else's.

Yeah, that's possible too. I'm certainly no economic expert, but my understanding is that bear markets typically last less than 2 years on average. But who knows? Your guess is as good as mine.

jfim 4y ago

> bear markets typically last less than 2 years on average According to a quick Google search, bull markets also last four to six years on average. The current bull market has been going on for about thirteen years now.

DragonStrength 4y ago
We're at a generational change in political control for the first time in four decades, in uncharted territory with low interest rates (as you note), and looking at increased wealth inequality and as assets have raged unchecked (same as previous point basically). I think our conventional wisdom is failing here because we have not considered that the voting preferences will rapidly change over the next 8 years. Of course, the massive buffer there to my theory is Millennials will be the ones inheriting the bulk of these assets over the same time frame. Perhaps they will decide generational wealth isn't so bad once it is in their accounts.
- oblio 4y ago
  > We're at a generational change in political control for the first time in four decades Where and how?
  - justinzollars 4y ago
    Read Ray Dalio's Essays on the Long Term Debt Cycle. No one knows how this will end for sure, but it is a unique time in history.
- yeaso9 4y ago
  Maybe Millennials won’t, but Gen Z polls favor progressive politics by wider margin than ahead of Millennials. Gen Zs political lean has not softened as they age into their late 20s, as it did with Millennials and older. Minus their elders, Gen X is not a powerful enough political force in another decade to avoid capitulating on new new deal type government. Gen X is pre Information Age, no where near as savvy and aware of how technological society works, raised by a still very God-headed society (the US recently just crossed a threshold of <50% believing in higher powers; was >80% around 2000). Urban growth has seen fewer teens get a license. Pee wee leagues participation was down before covid, as parents worried about future health, and cratered due to covid. Some unis have ended early education programs due to low enrollment. Essential workers are not staying in essential jobs as long, as they’ve seen they’re just a target for abuse by people who can’t feed themselves. 80% of nurses are considering leaving the field as they’ve just seen Americans rely on them like a mother rather than care for themselves. There are a lot of trends that are really interesting to see, and the big gorilla is a bunch of senile leaders like Feinstein who apparently forgets peoples names minutes after introductions, and others who can’t understand ideas that aren’t presented in folksy slang. American agency is a lot like her memory; giving way to something else.
  - DragonStrength 4y ago
    > Gen Zs political lean has not softened as they age into their late 20s, as it did with Millennials and older. A quick search for generational boundaries put the consensus at around 1997, which would make the oldest 25 years old. I don't think there is any data to analyze about how their leanings will change. They've barely left college and during the most significant global crisis of most living people's lifetimes.
  - scarface74 4y ago
    Demographically you might be right about where the majority of the population leans. But it doesn’t matter. Between the “small state bias” of the electoral college and gerrymandering, the minority are going to rule for the foreseeable future. The Democrats have now lost the Presidency twice in the last thirty years while winning the popular votes and are underrepresented in congress in comparison to the popular vote. Most Americans disapprove of the recent Supreme Court ruling on abortion - even Republicans.
- airbreather 4y ago
  Demographics are the only real broad brush crystal ball - we are now for the first time on the downward slope of the generational wave of increased consumption that the baby boomers historically brought to the consumer driven end of the globe, a different paradigm will emerge. As for inheritance, you can almost make a certain bet that once the scope of transference starts to reach substantial proportions that the worlds governments will find novel and pervasive ways of garnishing taxes from such movements of wealth.
ac29 4y ago
> The current bull market has been going on for about thirteen years now. There was a bear market during the 2020 recession.

nly 4y ago

The following article will give you some perspective "Bear markets: what they are, how long they last, and how to invest during them" https://monevator.com/bear-markets/ https://monevator.com/bear-markets/

RickJWagner 4y ago

"Your guess is as good as mine." Exactly right. If you look at Yahoo news, you'll find several articles from 'experts' daily that predict either imminent doom or a sudden rise in stock prices. On the same day. The great John Bogle said "Nobody knows nothing", meaning that nobody can predict where the market is going in the short term. (Long term, it's an up-and-right trend.) Your guess is absolutely as good as anyone else's.