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My total compensation dropped about 20%. It was definitely a meaningful motivator to switch jobs. I started a new job this month, which put me back at market ra

My total compensation dropped about 20%. It was definitely a meaningful motivator to switch jobs. I started a new job this month, which put me back at market rate for my level and geo, plus a modest raise. Many people advise staying put during economic downturns for stability, but I actually think switching jobs is quite advantageous because you can get more shares per dollar in your initial equity grant. My shares at the new company were granted at a price ~25% down from peak. I'm optimistic the market will turn around in the next 12-24 months, leaving me with some handsome appreciation I would not have otherwise seen.

dasil003 4y ago
It really depends on how close you think we are to the bottom. Of course no one can say for sure, but as someone who came of age in the first dotcom bubble, and now finds himself surrounded by a generation of young engineers who has never known anything but a bull market, I think it's worth pointing out that the S&P has only fallen to Feb 2021 levels. We are still well above where the market was just prior to the pandemic, at which point we had already experienced a historic decade plus bull run on tech stocks which was then amplified by quarantine and everything needing to be done remotely. I wouldn't be surprised if we're flat or down further 12-24 months from now.
- MikeTheRocker 4y ago
  Yeah, that's possible too. I'm certainly no economic expert, but my understanding is that bear markets typically last less than 2 years on average. But who knows? Your guess is as good as mine.
  - jfim 4y ago
    > bear markets typically last less than 2 years on average According to a quick Google search, bull markets also last four to six years on average. The current bull market has been going on for about thirteen years now.
    - DragonStrength 4y ago
      We're at a generational change in political control for the first time in four decades, in uncharted territory with low interest rates (as you note), and looking at increased wealth inequality and as assets have raged unchecked (same as previous point basically). I think our conventional wisdom is failing here because we have not considered that the voting preferences will rapidly change over the next 8 years. Of course, the massive buffer there to my theory is Millennials will be the ones inheriting the bulk of these assets over the same time frame. Perhaps they will decide generational wealth isn't so bad once it is in their accounts.
      - oblio 4y ago
        > We're at a generational change in political control for the first time in four decades Where and how?
        justinzollars 4y ago
        Read Ray Dalio's Essays on the Long Term Debt Cycle. No one knows how this will end for sure, but it is a unique time in history.
      - yeaso9 4y ago
        Maybe Millennials won’t, but Gen Z polls favor progressive politics by wider margin than ahead of Millennials. Gen Zs political lean has not softened as they age into their late 20s, as it did with Millennials and older. Minus their elders, Gen X is not a powerful enough political force in another decade to avoid capitulating on new new deal type government. Gen X is pre Information Age, no where near as savvy and aware of how technological society works, raised by a still very God-headed society (the US recently just crossed a threshold of <50% believing in higher powers; was >80% around 2000). Urban growth has seen fewer teens get a license. Pee wee leagues participation was down before covid, as parents worried about future health, and cratered due to covid. Some unis have ended early education programs due to low enrollment. Essential workers are not staying in essential jobs as long, as they’ve seen they’re just a target for abuse by people who can’t feed themselves. 80% of nurses are considering leaving the field as they’ve just seen Americans rely on them like a mother rather than care for themselves. There are a lot of trends that are really interesting to see, and the big gorilla is a bunch of senile leaders like Feinstein who apparently forgets peoples names minutes after introductions, and others who can’t understand ideas that aren’t presented in folksy slang. American agency is a lot like her memory; giving way to something else.
  - nly 4y ago
    The following article will give you some perspective "Bear markets: what they are, how long they last, and how to invest during them" https://monevator.com/bear-markets/ https://monevator.com/bear-markets/
  - RickJWagner 4y ago
    "Your guess is as good as mine." Exactly right. If you look at Yahoo news, you'll find several articles from 'experts' daily that predict either imminent doom or a sudden rise in stock prices. On the same day. The great John Bogle said "Nobody knows nothing", meaning that nobody can predict where the market is going in the short term. (Long term, it's an up-and-right trend.) Your guess is absolutely as good as anyone else's.
- mupuff1234 4y ago
  And of course any single stock doesn't have to correlate with the performance of the market. The market as a whole might bounce back, but that doesn't mean that a specific stock will.
- spoonjim 4y ago
  then they can just switch jobs again. It's like a mortgage, keep refinancing until you hit bottom.
pg_1234 4y ago
It's simple, you stack rank your options. Since you can only have one employer at a time, everyone from number 2 down is cut.

dasil003 4y ago

It really depends on how close you think we are to the bottom. Of course no one can say for sure, but as someone who came of age in the first dotcom bubble, and now finds himself surrounded by a generation of young engineers who has never known anything but a bull market, I think it's worth pointing out that the S&P has only fallen to Feb 2021 levels. We are still well above where the market was just prior to the pandemic, at which point we had already experienced a historic decade plus bull run on tech stocks which was then amplified by quarantine and everything needing to be done remotely. I wouldn't be surprised if we're flat or down further 12-24 months from now.

MikeTheRocker 4y ago
Yeah, that's possible too. I'm certainly no economic expert, but my understanding is that bear markets typically last less than 2 years on average. But who knows? Your guess is as good as mine.
- jfim 4y ago
  > bear markets typically last less than 2 years on average According to a quick Google search, bull markets also last four to six years on average. The current bull market has been going on for about thirteen years now.
  - DragonStrength 4y ago
    We're at a generational change in political control for the first time in four decades, in uncharted territory with low interest rates (as you note), and looking at increased wealth inequality and as assets have raged unchecked (same as previous point basically). I think our conventional wisdom is failing here because we have not considered that the voting preferences will rapidly change over the next 8 years. Of course, the massive buffer there to my theory is Millennials will be the ones inheriting the bulk of these assets over the same time frame. Perhaps they will decide generational wealth isn't so bad once it is in their accounts.
    - oblio 4y ago
      > We're at a generational change in political control for the first time in four decades Where and how?
      - justinzollars 4y ago
        Read Ray Dalio's Essays on the Long Term Debt Cycle. No one knows how this will end for sure, but it is a unique time in history.
    - yeaso9 4y ago
      Maybe Millennials won’t, but Gen Z polls favor progressive politics by wider margin than ahead of Millennials. Gen Zs political lean has not softened as they age into their late 20s, as it did with Millennials and older. Minus their elders, Gen X is not a powerful enough political force in another decade to avoid capitulating on new new deal type government. Gen X is pre Information Age, no where near as savvy and aware of how technological society works, raised by a still very God-headed society (the US recently just crossed a threshold of <50% believing in higher powers; was >80% around 2000). Urban growth has seen fewer teens get a license. Pee wee leagues participation was down before covid, as parents worried about future health, and cratered due to covid. Some unis have ended early education programs due to low enrollment. Essential workers are not staying in essential jobs as long, as they’ve seen they’re just a target for abuse by people who can’t feed themselves. 80% of nurses are considering leaving the field as they’ve just seen Americans rely on them like a mother rather than care for themselves. There are a lot of trends that are really interesting to see, and the big gorilla is a bunch of senile leaders like Feinstein who apparently forgets peoples names minutes after introductions, and others who can’t understand ideas that aren’t presented in folksy slang. American agency is a lot like her memory; giving way to something else.
- nly 4y ago
  The following article will give you some perspective "Bear markets: what they are, how long they last, and how to invest during them" https://monevator.com/bear-markets/ https://monevator.com/bear-markets/
- RickJWagner 4y ago
  "Your guess is as good as mine." Exactly right. If you look at Yahoo news, you'll find several articles from 'experts' daily that predict either imminent doom or a sudden rise in stock prices. On the same day. The great John Bogle said "Nobody knows nothing", meaning that nobody can predict where the market is going in the short term. (Long term, it's an up-and-right trend.) Your guess is absolutely as good as anyone else's.
mupuff1234 4y ago
And of course any single stock doesn't have to correlate with the performance of the market. The market as a whole might bounce back, but that doesn't mean that a specific stock will.
spoonjim 4y ago
then they can just switch jobs again. It's like a mortgage, keep refinancing until you hit bottom.

pg_1234 4y ago

It's simple, you stack rank your options. Since you can only have one employer at a time, everyone from number 2 down is cut.