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This is all so well-played by Apple: evolve ever more locked down systems in seemingly consumer-friendly ways. Once consumers forget they can even install their
by dmbaggett 15y ago
This is all so well-played by Apple: evolve ever more locked down systems in seemingly consumer-friendly ways. Once consumers forget they can even install their own applications (except through the app store), OS X distribution will be just as heavily moderated by Apple as iOS distribution.
Expect Apple, Microsoft, and Google to exert ever more control over distribution. The software industry is evolving into the "studio model" just as the movie industry did decades before: 5-7 huge players controlling absolutely everything that sees the light of day. Everything else is small-time "indie" stuff that hits big every once in a while, but is otherwise irrelevant. (It took Apple to make Microsoft realize this was something they could actually get away with -- thanks, Apple!)
Nintendo's been doing this for years with their consoles. It's not good for developers, and not good for innovation. But it's very good for the studios, because it gives them complete control, and makes a new player emerging out of nowhere (as Google themselves did circa 2000, or Facebook did circa 2009) much less likely. The cartel stays nicely entrenched.
How long 'til websites are similarly locked down? Will users forget they can just type a URL in, and instead install everything through their friendly neighborhood web app store? (Don't laugh.) Who will approve websites? Oh right, the 5-7 huge players. Got it.
I don't want to sound like a tin-foil hat here, but having spent my youth in the console game business (Naughty Dog), this seems all too familiar...
- ootachi 15y ago"Will users forget they can just type a URL in, and instead install everything through their friendly neighborhood web app store? (Don't laugh.)" Who's laughing? All but two of the Web browser manufacturers (Opera and Mozilla, both of which are losing market share) seem to have vested interests in doing exactly this.
- dmbaggett 15y agoYes, and add to that the fact that typing on a mobile device is painful, and you have a strong usability argument for doing away with the URL bar entirely.
- artursapek 15y agoThis reminds me of Steve demoing the first iPhone, when he pulled out the numpad in the Phone app and called dialing a number "real last-century." I think soon we will all have the bookmarked websites we regularly visit as browser-apps (contacts, if you will) with most of the rest being taken care of by hyperlinks, and once in a while one will have to pull out the URL bar to actually type an address in manually.
- xsmasher 15y agoIt's happened already, with bookmarks and search replacing URLs. Googling for Sony is faster than typing in sony.com, so why not? The address bar would have faded into near-obsolescence if browsers hadn't smartened it up a bit, making it search your history and commonly used sites.
- Tichy 15y agoIf Google starts doing that to Android, why would I not just buy an iPhone...
- dextorious 15y ago"This is all so well-played by Apple: evolve ever more locked down systems in seemingly consumer-friendly ways. Once consumers forget they can even install their own applications (except through the app store), OS X distribution will be just as heavily moderated by Apple as iOS distribution." The "seemingly" part confuses me. Why seemingly? Either consumers will like the experience (as they seem to do in iOS and could care less about a few apps non allowed to the iOS App Store) or they won't and they will leave the platform. Apple cannot "foul" the consumers into liking a more locked down system. Either they will, or they wont. And I guess they will. The average consumer is not the average HN reader.
- dmbaggett 15y ago"Seemingly consumer friendly" because it may very well be so in the short term, but not, it seems to me, in the long term. Short term: less malware, better UX. Long term: software distribution carefully controlled by a cartel.