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No. My anonymous gun ownership make me and my neighbors safer because I: 1. Can protect myself and my family. 2. Gun seeking criminals (e.g. Mexican drug car

No. My anonymous gun ownership make me and my neighbors safer because I: 1. Can protect myself and my family. 2. Gun seeking criminals (e.g. Mexican drug cartels) that are better armed for the occasion do not know to target my house for my rifles, shotgun and handgun. 3. Burgling my very (yet cool) progressive neighbors is risky since every other house in America has a gun (I found a corner of swing state America that looks down on lawn signs). Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime.

threeseed 4y ago
> Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime Be useful to post evidence of this claim.
- quarantaseih 4y ago
  im not stating a statistical fact. All Im saying is, all else being equal, there is an extra nevative term in the expected value equation that goes boom and has a P ~ 0.5
zorpner 4y ago
As all statistical evidence indicates, your family is far more likely to be killed by your gun than by any other. Your gun ownership endangers your family.
- quarantaseih 4y ago
  Like everything in stats you have a conditional probability given that I, like most gun owners, am a responsible gun owner. I have a safe, trigger locks, don't have a history of violence, etc. The small minority who are irresponsible gun owners get slaughtered increasing the numbers for the larger pool. That partition function in the denominator is key! So, no. My gun does not endanger my family.
albertopv 4y ago
"Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime." That's a serious claim. USA is first by incarceration rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarcera... even with 120 arms every 100 persons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_g... South states (where AFAIK at least looking at international news, people is more willing to own a gun) have incarceration rate really high: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_ra... Probably there's a problem with illegal immigration, that doesn't explain everything, overall is incredibly higher than other western countries. This is quite old https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9715182/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9715182/ "Conclusions: Guns kept in homes are more likely to be involved in a fatal or nonfatal accidental shooting, criminal assault, or suicide attempt than to be used to injure or kill in self-defense. Also: https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/sites/default/files/2014-2020%20SUMMARY%202020%20GRAPHIC%20with%202019%20CDC.jpg https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/sites/default/files/2014-... Almost all KPI but Defensive Use are increasing since 2014. Of course it's only correlation with number of arms, much higher in USA than most other countries. But, there's a 2013 CDC study https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/cdc-study-use-firearms-self-defense-important-crime-deterrent https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/cdc-study-use-firearms-... that says * "that guns are an effective and often used crime deterrent and that most firearm incidents are not fatal" * "stolen guns account for only a small percentage of guns used by convicted criminals." Or another one https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm: that says "In summary, the Task Force found insufficient evidence to determine the effectiveness of any of the firearms laws reviewed for preventing violence." Or from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concealed_carry_in_the_United_States#Effect_on_crime_and_deaths https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concealed_carry_in_the_United_... it's not clear if concealed arm licenses had impact on crime, in any way. Also, you must really be willing to use a gun. Uvalde police waited 45 minutes before going in, protocol says to go in as soon as possible, they were scared. They are humans afterall, even if trained. So, it's not really clear to me that more arms means more or less safety. But I know this: in 2020 Chicago alone (where AFAIK there are what you could call "strict laws") there have been almost 3 times murders than whole Italy. Rate is about 60 times, and Chicago is not even in top 10 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...). Something to think about.

threeseed 4y ago

> Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime Be useful to post evidence of this claim.

quarantaseih 4y ago
im not stating a statistical fact. All Im saying is, all else being equal, there is an extra nevative term in the expected value equation that goes boom and has a P ~ 0.5

zorpner 4y ago

As all statistical evidence indicates, your family is far more likely to be killed by your gun than by any other. Your gun ownership endangers your family.

quarantaseih 4y ago
Like everything in stats you have a conditional probability given that I, like most gun owners, am a responsible gun owner. I have a safe, trigger locks, don't have a history of violence, etc. The small minority who are irresponsible gun owners get slaughtered increasing the numbers for the larger pool. That partition function in the denominator is key! So, no. My gun does not endanger my family.

albertopv 4y ago

"Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime." That's a serious claim. USA is first by incarceration rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarcera... even with 120 arms every 100 persons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_g... South states (where AFAIK at least looking at international news, people is more willing to own a gun) have incarceration rate really high: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_ra... Probably there's a problem with illegal immigration, that doesn't explain everything, overall is incredibly higher than other western countries. This is quite old https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9715182/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9715182/ "Conclusions: Guns kept in homes are more likely to be involved in a fatal or nonfatal accidental shooting, criminal assault, or suicide attempt than to be used to injure or kill in self-defense. Also: https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/sites/default/files/2014-2020%20SUMMARY%202020%20GRAPHIC%20with%202019%20CDC.jpg https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/sites/default/files/2014-... Almost all KPI but Defensive Use are increasing since 2014. Of course it's only correlation with number of arms, much higher in USA than most other countries. But, there's a 2013 CDC study https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/cdc-study-use-firearms-self-defense-important-crime-deterrent https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/cdc-study-use-firearms-... that says * "that guns are an effective and often used crime deterrent and that most firearm incidents are not fatal" * "stolen guns account for only a small percentage of guns used by convicted criminals." Or another one https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm: that says "In summary, the Task Force found insufficient evidence to determine the effectiveness of any of the firearms laws reviewed for preventing violence." Or from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concealed_carry_in_the_United_States#Effect_on_crime_and_deaths https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concealed_carry_in_the_United_... it's not clear if concealed arm licenses had impact on crime, in any way. Also, you must really be willing to use a gun. Uvalde police waited 45 minutes before going in, protocol says to go in as soon as possible, they were scared. They are humans afterall, even if trained. So, it's not really clear to me that more arms means more or less safety. But I know this: in 2020 Chicago alone (where AFAIK there are what you could call "strict laws") there have been almost 3 times murders than whole Italy. Rate is about 60 times, and Chicago is not even in top 10 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...). Something to think about.