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Especially because these sorts of predictions have happened before. Look at this prediction for the world in 2022 from 1922: >Vive la France? > No one would b
by TapWaterBandit 4y ago
Especially because these sorts of predictions have happened before. Look at this prediction for the world in 2022 from 1922:
>Vive la France?
> No one would be left to appreciate the Eiffel Tower or the Arc de Triomphe.
> French scientists were concerned about the nation’s birth rate 100 year ago. In 1860, there had been 1 million births in the country. In 1922, the number had fallen to 450,000.
> As one observer noted: “At the rate of decline in number of children born in that country, in the year 2022 — 100 years hence — there will be nobody left in France, except as they drift in from other sections of Europe. The figures show, unerringly, that the present rate of decrease, maintained for 100 years, would reduce the birthrate to zero.”
https://www.beaconjournal.com/story/news/2021/12/27/experts-from-1922-made-prophecies-2022-future-predictions-new-york-science-city-of-tomorrow/8972713002/ https://www.beaconjournal.com/story/news/2021/12/27/experts-...
And what happened in the 20th century post WW2? A French Baby Boom driven by increased marital fertility: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-20th_century_baby_boom#Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-20th_century_baby_boom#Eur...
> France and Austria experienced the strongest baby booms in Europe.[19] In contrast to most other countries, the French and Austrian baby booms were driven primarily by an increase in marital fertility.[28] In the French case, pronatalist policies were an important factor in this increase.[29] Weaker baby booms occurred in Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands.[30]
We really have no idea what is going on with fertility and what the end result will be. When population was booming everyone predicted mass starvation that didn't happen. Now when population is declining everyone is confidently predicting disaster, but who's to say it won't self-correct? (alongside appropriate societal efforts)?
- lotsofpulp 4y ago> We really have no idea what is going on with fertility and what the end result will be. When population was booming everyone predicted mass starvation that didn't happen. Now when population is declining everyone is confidently predicting disaster, but who's to say it won't self-correct? (alongside appropriate societal efforts)? The two big changes from previous decades are women’s financial independence and birth control methods that are 100% effective and relatively convenient and cheap, essentially separating the acts of having sex and becoming parents.