5 ms·

It's probably related because Japan and the US both need a lot of natural gas to produce electricity, and natural gas is very expensive this year. The US replac

by sct202 4y ago

It's probably related because Japan and the US both need a lot of natural gas to produce electricity, and natural gas is very expensive this year. The US replaced coal with natural gas because it was cheaper and cleaner. Japan replaced nuclear with natural gas, because of Fukushima.

theshrike79 4y ago
Japan's energy is mostly (~80%) generated by imported coal and natural gas. The mix was better before, but they shut down all nuclear plants in 2012. This is also the reason why Toyota is pushing Hydrogen vehicles so hard, the Japanese grid can't handle EVs. Hydrogen they could theoretically manufacture, store and distribute locally.
- zumu 4y ago
  > the Japanese grid can't handle EVs I have a feeling most of the world's grid can't handle EVs
  - smileysteve 4y ago
    Acs are a much harder problem to solve than EVs. - First the instantaneous load, EVs don't require torque to charge like compressing a fluid. Fast charging has limitations on when it's optimal to use for the batteries and charging systems are capable of negotiating with the grid. - Time of Use (hourly). Unlike an AC, not every ev needs to be charged at reasonably the same time based on regional similarities (the worst time for the grid is when multiple hvac compressors try to start at the same time). Given a low amp slow charge (about 1/3 the needs of ac) an ev can still fully charge while over 12 hours while the user is at home. - Time of Use (daily). When the average commute is 20 miles a day and the average car has 200 mile range, the likelihood of every car needing to be fast charged at the same time on the same day is very unlikely. Tldr; electric vehicles are an extremely easy load relative to hvac and its usage patterns. The most obvious Internet connected optimization is that electric cars should turn off fast charging during a given 5 minute hvac compressor cycle (up to 30 minutes an hour) ps. Internet connected thermostats and EVs already offer time of use optimizations.
    - theshrike79 4y ago
      https://www.gridio.io https://www.gridio.io has already automated EV charging based on real-time electricity cost. Usually people without any EV experience tend to overestimate the time EV owners spend thinking about charging. I've got a 230V/12A plug on my parking spot. It'll charge my car from ~20% to 100% basically overnight. Most nights I don't even bother unless I know I'm going on a longer trip.
  - theshrike79 4y ago
    Nordic countries are doing just fine. We have a 230 volt 8A plug for most cars anyway, because ICE cars need it for their block and cabin heaters 50% of the year. And this is not just detached housing, apartment buildings have it too. That's enough to charge about 80-100km of range every night easily. If the cabling is done this millennium you can go to 10-12A single phase.
- selimthegrim 4y ago
  Why not just convert the cars to CNG?
  - jandrese 4y ago
    I'd guess the same way nobody wants to build H2 gas stations they also don't want to go to the effort to convert to CNG stations right as cars are making the switch to electric. It is a lot of work to support what is probably going to be a stopgap solution.
  - theshrike79 4y ago
    The conversion costs thousands of euros and takes up a good quarter-third of the boot space. Also the CNG network is really bad pretty much everywhere. The closest CNG station from my home is 90km away. Gas station is 5km away and the closest charger is 0km away on my driveway :D
dpierce9 4y ago
Wholesale gas is around the price it was in the mid-2000s and still much lower than peaks[0]. Note that this doesn’t adjust for inflation over the last two decades either so gas is still cheaper. Gas is only relatively expensive compared to recent years which were the cheapest gas prices ever. Japan also uses LNG which has a very different price than Henry Hub. [0]https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm
- whimsicalism 4y ago
  In the mid-2000s, most of the South relied on coal for power generation. Now, most of the South relies on natgas for power.
  - dpierce9 4y ago
    This supports my point about the cheapness of nat gas. Higher demand AND lower prices.
    - whimsicalism 4y ago
      No, it supports my point: ie. that disruptions to the electricity grid are caused by high price of gas. Your point was: in the past there were higher prices, but no major grid disruption. My point: the grid wasn't reliant on natgas in the same way back then as it is now. we have never been as reliant on natgas as today while simultaneously experiencing these high of prices.
      - dpierce9 4y ago
        I said nothing about grid disruptions. Charitably, ‘relied on’ is undefined. Each US interconnect still has many MWh provided by coal plants. Further, coal capacity is still hundreds of gigawatts but you are right that capacity has gone down over the last decade (this isn’t true in China). Still, we all ‘rely on’ coal for any reasonable definition even with relatively more natural gas capacity. We have also always had substantial natural gas generation in every interconnect. The thing that has changed since the shale boom is the relative proportion of those things. I am not sure I would call that disruption since that is how energy markets are designed to work, they reward the lowest cost producer. My only point is that gas looks expensive until you realize you are comparing today’s price to the lowest prices ever. You pointing out that demand has increased supports my point (imagine what the price would be without that demand).

by sct202 4y ago

theshrike79 4y ago

Japan's energy is mostly (~80%) generated by imported coal and natural gas. The mix was better before, but they shut down all nuclear plants in 2012. This is also the reason why Toyota is pushing Hydrogen vehicles so hard, the Japanese grid can't handle EVs. Hydrogen they could theoretically manufacture, store and distribute locally.

zumu 4y ago
> the Japanese grid can't handle EVs I have a feeling most of the world's grid can't handle EVs
- smileysteve 4y ago
  Acs are a much harder problem to solve than EVs. - First the instantaneous load, EVs don't require torque to charge like compressing a fluid. Fast charging has limitations on when it's optimal to use for the batteries and charging systems are capable of negotiating with the grid. - Time of Use (hourly). Unlike an AC, not every ev needs to be charged at reasonably the same time based on regional similarities (the worst time for the grid is when multiple hvac compressors try to start at the same time). Given a low amp slow charge (about 1/3 the needs of ac) an ev can still fully charge while over 12 hours while the user is at home. - Time of Use (daily). When the average commute is 20 miles a day and the average car has 200 mile range, the likelihood of every car needing to be fast charged at the same time on the same day is very unlikely. Tldr; electric vehicles are an extremely easy load relative to hvac and its usage patterns. The most obvious Internet connected optimization is that electric cars should turn off fast charging during a given 5 minute hvac compressor cycle (up to 30 minutes an hour) ps. Internet connected thermostats and EVs already offer time of use optimizations.
  - theshrike79 4y ago
    https://www.gridio.io https://www.gridio.io has already automated EV charging based on real-time electricity cost. Usually people without any EV experience tend to overestimate the time EV owners spend thinking about charging. I've got a 230V/12A plug on my parking spot. It'll charge my car from ~20% to 100% basically overnight. Most nights I don't even bother unless I know I'm going on a longer trip.
- theshrike79 4y ago
  Nordic countries are doing just fine. We have a 230 volt 8A plug for most cars anyway, because ICE cars need it for their block and cabin heaters 50% of the year. And this is not just detached housing, apartment buildings have it too. That's enough to charge about 80-100km of range every night easily. If the cabling is done this millennium you can go to 10-12A single phase.
selimthegrim 4y ago
Why not just convert the cars to CNG?
- jandrese 4y ago
  I'd guess the same way nobody wants to build H2 gas stations they also don't want to go to the effort to convert to CNG stations right as cars are making the switch to electric. It is a lot of work to support what is probably going to be a stopgap solution.
- theshrike79 4y ago
  The conversion costs thousands of euros and takes up a good quarter-third of the boot space. Also the CNG network is really bad pretty much everywhere. The closest CNG station from my home is 90km away. Gas station is 5km away and the closest charger is 0km away on my driveway :D

dpierce9 4y ago

Wholesale gas is around the price it was in the mid-2000s and still much lower than peaks[0]. Note that this doesn’t adjust for inflation over the last two decades either so gas is still cheaper. Gas is only relatively expensive compared to recent years which were the cheapest gas prices ever. Japan also uses LNG which has a very different price than Henry Hub. [0]https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm

whimsicalism 4y ago
In the mid-2000s, most of the South relied on coal for power generation. Now, most of the South relies on natgas for power.
- dpierce9 4y ago
  This supports my point about the cheapness of nat gas. Higher demand AND lower prices.
  - whimsicalism 4y ago
    No, it supports my point: ie. that disruptions to the electricity grid are caused by high price of gas. Your point was: in the past there were higher prices, but no major grid disruption. My point: the grid wasn't reliant on natgas in the same way back then as it is now. we have never been as reliant on natgas as today while simultaneously experiencing these high of prices.
    - dpierce9 4y ago
      I said nothing about grid disruptions. Charitably, ‘relied on’ is undefined. Each US interconnect still has many MWh provided by coal plants. Further, coal capacity is still hundreds of gigawatts but you are right that capacity has gone down over the last decade (this isn’t true in China). Still, we all ‘rely on’ coal for any reasonable definition even with relatively more natural gas capacity. We have also always had substantial natural gas generation in every interconnect. The thing that has changed since the shale boom is the relative proportion of those things. I am not sure I would call that disruption since that is how energy markets are designed to work, they reward the lowest cost producer. My only point is that gas looks expensive until you realize you are comparing today’s price to the lowest prices ever. You pointing out that demand has increased supports my point (imagine what the price would be without that demand).