4 ms·

I don't see how this would work, as people generally don't know how they got Monkeypox. Even if you somehow know that a sexual encounter was the cause of transm

by foldr 4y ago

I don't see how this would work, as people generally don't know how they got Monkeypox. Even if you somehow know that a sexual encounter was the cause of transmission, it doesn't follow that transmission occurred through a specifically sexual route (rather than just general close physical contact). If such figures aren't being published, it isn't because of a conspiracy – it's just because no-one knows.

londons_explore 4y ago
It seems a survey could build a pretty conclusive picture, especially while case numbers are low... You'd identify places where someone interacted with a previously infected person. You'd then send them a survey with questions like "how many hours were you in the same room as this person", "did you touch their bedding", "did you have sex", "which days, how many times, what type of sex?" etc. Using those results together with information about whether each contact got infected or not you should be able to get a good indication of the causes of transmission. More importantly you can probably also find what does not cause transmission, allowing those to be eliminated from public health guidance. I think the main limiting factor for such a survey will be people being dishonest on the survey. It only takes a few people to say "nah we just talked and didn't have sex" (when in fact they did, and got infected), and suddenly the survey results cause incorrect health guidance to be issued, putting others at risk.
- foldr 4y ago
  Leaving aside all the usual difficulties with collecting data of that kind, it’s worth noting that such a procedure only has a hope of producing reliable results if: * The majority if cases of Monkeypox are both symptomatic and reported. * The majority of transmissions occur by contact between people who know each other personally (rather than e.g. brushing up against each other in a tube carriage). * It is possible to share names and other details in a way that respects people’s privacy. (On the face of it, sending out surveys saying 'Sam Jones had Monkeypox, did you kiss them last week?' is just unlawful.) We may eventually get reliable information about the main vectors for the current outbreak. At present, we haven’t. No-one is hiding anything. We just don’t know because it’s difficult to find out. edit: Also note the following from the article: >For many of the confirmed cases, health officials don't know how the person caught the virus. Those infected haven't traveled or come into contact with another infected person. That means the virus is spreading in some communities and cities, cryptically.

by foldr 4y ago

londons_explore 4y ago

It seems a survey could build a pretty conclusive picture, especially while case numbers are low... You'd identify places where someone interacted with a previously infected person. You'd then send them a survey with questions like "how many hours were you in the same room as this person", "did you touch their bedding", "did you have sex", "which days, how many times, what type of sex?" etc. Using those results together with information about whether each contact got infected or not you should be able to get a good indication of the causes of transmission. More importantly you can probably also find what does not cause transmission, allowing those to be eliminated from public health guidance. I think the main limiting factor for such a survey will be people being dishonest on the survey. It only takes a few people to say "nah we just talked and didn't have sex" (when in fact they did, and got infected), and suddenly the survey results cause incorrect health guidance to be issued, putting others at risk.

foldr 4y ago
Leaving aside all the usual difficulties with collecting data of that kind, it’s worth noting that such a procedure only has a hope of producing reliable results if: * The majority if cases of Monkeypox are both symptomatic and reported. * The majority of transmissions occur by contact between people who know each other personally (rather than e.g. brushing up against each other in a tube carriage). * It is possible to share names and other details in a way that respects people’s privacy. (On the face of it, sending out surveys saying 'Sam Jones had Monkeypox, did you kiss them last week?' is just unlawful.) We may eventually get reliable information about the main vectors for the current outbreak. At present, we haven’t. No-one is hiding anything. We just don’t know because it’s difficult to find out. edit: Also note the following from the article: >For many of the confirmed cases, health officials don't know how the person caught the virus. Those infected haven't traveled or come into contact with another infected person. That means the virus is spreading in some communities and cities, cryptically.