6 ms·

Not to be all conspiratorial but I noticed my gut reaction to this statement was “I wonder how much of that from WHO/CDC is stretching the truth to prevent stig

by tjs8rj 4y ago

Not to be all conspiratorial but I noticed my gut reaction to this statement was “I wonder how much of that from WHO/CDC is stretching the truth to prevent stigma”. The CDC really did a real number on its own credibility by showing itself to willfully stray from reasonable public health strategies in order to push political agendas. I wonder how much more monkeypox will spread above what it otherwise would do to this same politics over health approach that puts “prevent stigmatization” over “save lives”

foldr 4y ago
I think you are being a bit conspiratorial. Monkeypox isn't a new disease and we know that it can transmit through non-sexual means. I have seen no evidence that the variant of Monkeypox responsible for the current outbreak is any different in this respect. If you know of any evidence to the contrary then by all means link to it.
- makomk 4y ago
  Monkeypox can transmit through non-sexual means, but it transmits poorly enough amongst humans that way that those routes of transmission cannot explain the current outbreak. I think there's other hints that this is the cause too, such as the actual sites of the infection and most of the spread so far being amongst the more sexually promiscuous parts of the gay male community... This is even kind of hinted at in the article. The symptoms people are presenting with are different from classic monkeypox outbreaks, and as far as anyone can tell the actual disease hasn't changed and this is all due to the route of transmission.
  - foldr 4y ago
    > but it transmits poorly enough amongst humans that way that those routes of transmission cannot explain the current outbreak. Previous Monkeypox outbreaks have not been linked primarily to sexual transmission. It may be that the initial cluster of the current outbreak is caused by people meeting up for sex (although really, who knows?), but given what we already know about the disease, it would be unwise to jump to the conclusion that sex itself is necessary for efficient transmission. If there's really a consensus among experts that sexual transmission (rather than just transmission via contact during sex) is playing a key role here, then by all means reference this. I've been unable to find anything of the sort. >most of the spread so far being amongst the more sexually promiscuous parts of the gay male community... Here you're moving away from informed speculation (which is already unwise at this early stage, in my opinion) and simply repeating sensationalist nonsense from less reputable sections of the news media. There is absolutely no reliable data on how 'promiscuous' the people who have been infected so far are.
- Jeema101 4y ago
  The WHO's assessment does seem to suggest that it may be sexually transmitted but doesn't explicitly state it. Here's what they state: "The clinical presentation is often atypical, with few lesions localized to the genital, perineal/perianal or peri-oral area that do not spread further, and an asynchronous rash that appears prior to the development of a prodromal phase (i.e. lymphadenopathy, fever, malaise)." [1] [1] https://www.who.int/news/item/25-06-2022-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee--regarding-the-multi-country-monkeypox-outbreak https://www.who.int/news/item/25-06-2022-meeting-of-the-inte...
  - foldr 4y ago
    It may be. I am not saying the possibility can be ruled out, only that we don't know at present. The WHO doesn't explicitly state that it's sexually transmitted because they don't know that it is, and neither does anyone else. For example, the 'atypicality' of the presentation could simply be a consequence of MSM who are used to getting sexual health checkups being more comfortable with showing their genital sores to a doctor or nurse than other population groups. I'm not sure if the presence of genital lesions is necessarily even a good indicator that transmission was via sex. See e.g. https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/4/4/ofx168/4588539 https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/4/4/ofx168/4588539
londons_explore 4y ago
They need to just publish figures... "Of 150 analyzed transmissions, XX were from sexual activities, YY were from family interaction or shared living space, ZZ were unidentified"
- foldr 4y ago
  I don't see how this would work, as people generally don't know how they got Monkeypox. Even if you somehow know that a sexual encounter was the cause of transmission, it doesn't follow that transmission occurred through a specifically sexual route (rather than just general close physical contact). If such figures aren't being published, it isn't because of a conspiracy – it's just because no-one knows.
  - londons_explore 4y ago
    It seems a survey could build a pretty conclusive picture, especially while case numbers are low... You'd identify places where someone interacted with a previously infected person. You'd then send them a survey with questions like "how many hours were you in the same room as this person", "did you touch their bedding", "did you have sex", "which days, how many times, what type of sex?" etc. Using those results together with information about whether each contact got infected or not you should be able to get a good indication of the causes of transmission. More importantly you can probably also find what does not cause transmission, allowing those to be eliminated from public health guidance. I think the main limiting factor for such a survey will be people being dishonest on the survey. It only takes a few people to say "nah we just talked and didn't have sex" (when in fact they did, and got infected), and suddenly the survey results cause incorrect health guidance to be issued, putting others at risk.
    - foldr 4y ago
      Leaving aside all the usual difficulties with collecting data of that kind, it’s worth noting that such a procedure only has a hope of producing reliable results if: * The majority if cases of Monkeypox are both symptomatic and reported. * The majority of transmissions occur by contact between people who know each other personally (rather than e.g. brushing up against each other in a tube carriage). * It is possible to share names and other details in a way that respects people’s privacy. (On the face of it, sending out surveys saying 'Sam Jones had Monkeypox, did you kiss them last week?' is just unlawful.) We may eventually get reliable information about the main vectors for the current outbreak. At present, we haven’t. No-one is hiding anything. We just don’t know because it’s difficult to find out. edit: Also note the following from the article: >For many of the confirmed cases, health officials don't know how the person caught the virus. Those infected haven't traveled or come into contact with another infected person. That means the virus is spreading in some communities and cities, cryptically.

by tjs8rj 4y ago

foldr 4y ago

I think you are being a bit conspiratorial. Monkeypox isn't a new disease and we know that it can transmit through non-sexual means. I have seen no evidence that the variant of Monkeypox responsible for the current outbreak is any different in this respect. If you know of any evidence to the contrary then by all means link to it.

makomk 4y ago
Monkeypox can transmit through non-sexual means, but it transmits poorly enough amongst humans that way that those routes of transmission cannot explain the current outbreak. I think there's other hints that this is the cause too, such as the actual sites of the infection and most of the spread so far being amongst the more sexually promiscuous parts of the gay male community... This is even kind of hinted at in the article. The symptoms people are presenting with are different from classic monkeypox outbreaks, and as far as anyone can tell the actual disease hasn't changed and this is all due to the route of transmission.
- foldr 4y ago
  > but it transmits poorly enough amongst humans that way that those routes of transmission cannot explain the current outbreak. Previous Monkeypox outbreaks have not been linked primarily to sexual transmission. It may be that the initial cluster of the current outbreak is caused by people meeting up for sex (although really, who knows?), but given what we already know about the disease, it would be unwise to jump to the conclusion that sex itself is necessary for efficient transmission. If there's really a consensus among experts that sexual transmission (rather than just transmission via contact during sex) is playing a key role here, then by all means reference this. I've been unable to find anything of the sort. >most of the spread so far being amongst the more sexually promiscuous parts of the gay male community... Here you're moving away from informed speculation (which is already unwise at this early stage, in my opinion) and simply repeating sensationalist nonsense from less reputable sections of the news media. There is absolutely no reliable data on how 'promiscuous' the people who have been infected so far are.
Jeema101 4y ago
The WHO's assessment does seem to suggest that it may be sexually transmitted but doesn't explicitly state it. Here's what they state: "The clinical presentation is often atypical, with few lesions localized to the genital, perineal/perianal or peri-oral area that do not spread further, and an asynchronous rash that appears prior to the development of a prodromal phase (i.e. lymphadenopathy, fever, malaise)." [1] [1] https://www.who.int/news/item/25-06-2022-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee--regarding-the-multi-country-monkeypox-outbreak https://www.who.int/news/item/25-06-2022-meeting-of-the-inte...
- foldr 4y ago
  It may be. I am not saying the possibility can be ruled out, only that we don't know at present. The WHO doesn't explicitly state that it's sexually transmitted because they don't know that it is, and neither does anyone else. For example, the 'atypicality' of the presentation could simply be a consequence of MSM who are used to getting sexual health checkups being more comfortable with showing their genital sores to a doctor or nurse than other population groups. I'm not sure if the presence of genital lesions is necessarily even a good indicator that transmission was via sex. See e.g. https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/4/4/ofx168/4588539 https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/4/4/ofx168/4588539

londons_explore 4y ago

They need to just publish figures... "Of 150 analyzed transmissions, XX were from sexual activities, YY were from family interaction or shared living space, ZZ were unidentified"

foldr 4y ago
I don't see how this would work, as people generally don't know how they got Monkeypox. Even if you somehow know that a sexual encounter was the cause of transmission, it doesn't follow that transmission occurred through a specifically sexual route (rather than just general close physical contact). If such figures aren't being published, it isn't because of a conspiracy – it's just because no-one knows.
- londons_explore 4y ago
  It seems a survey could build a pretty conclusive picture, especially while case numbers are low... You'd identify places where someone interacted with a previously infected person. You'd then send them a survey with questions like "how many hours were you in the same room as this person", "did you touch their bedding", "did you have sex", "which days, how many times, what type of sex?" etc. Using those results together with information about whether each contact got infected or not you should be able to get a good indication of the causes of transmission. More importantly you can probably also find what does not cause transmission, allowing those to be eliminated from public health guidance. I think the main limiting factor for such a survey will be people being dishonest on the survey. It only takes a few people to say "nah we just talked and didn't have sex" (when in fact they did, and got infected), and suddenly the survey results cause incorrect health guidance to be issued, putting others at risk.
  - foldr 4y ago
    Leaving aside all the usual difficulties with collecting data of that kind, it’s worth noting that such a procedure only has a hope of producing reliable results if: * The majority if cases of Monkeypox are both symptomatic and reported. * The majority of transmissions occur by contact between people who know each other personally (rather than e.g. brushing up against each other in a tube carriage). * It is possible to share names and other details in a way that respects people’s privacy. (On the face of it, sending out surveys saying 'Sam Jones had Monkeypox, did you kiss them last week?' is just unlawful.) We may eventually get reliable information about the main vectors for the current outbreak. At present, we haven’t. No-one is hiding anything. We just don’t know because it’s difficult to find out. edit: Also note the following from the article: >For many of the confirmed cases, health officials don't know how the person caught the virus. Those infected haven't traveled or come into contact with another infected person. That means the virus is spreading in some communities and cities, cryptically.