The Russian economy is expected to contract by about 10–15%. For comparison in the 2008 “great recession” the US economy contracted by 4.2% over the course of 1

The Russian economy is expected to contract by about 10–15%. For comparison in the 2008 “great recession” the US economy contracted by 4.2% over the course of 1.5 years. The Russian economy contracted by 5.3% in 1998 and it caused an acute political crisis which ultimately brought Putin to power. This Ukraine war is a calamity for Russia’s economy. While Nabiullina has been doing an impressive job of sticking fingers in the dyke for a few months, pressure continues to build and the crisis doesn’t show signs of ending any time soon. Europe is working full speed on independence from Russian fossil fuels, and US/European officials are continuing to look for more ways to make sanctions hurt. > And we are running to Venezuela, Saudi Arabia (the good guys this month) to get oil, Nobody is under any illusions about this. But there’s only so much you can do on the time scale of a few months in a world economy totally dependent on fossil fuels.