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It’s a weird trick. Russia has more money but they can’t import anything so it keeps piling up. Their economy is shrinking +10% yoy because they cannot import t

It’s a weird trick. Russia has more money but they can’t import anything so it keeps piling up. Their economy is shrinking +10% yoy because they cannot import the parts necessary to run a modern economy

vntok 4y ago
Surely China and India are willing to sell those parts to Russia.. for the right price.
- jacobolus 4y ago
  China and India don’t e.g. make the equipment needed to keep Russian fossil fuel extraction working in the medium term.
- ElectricalUnion 4y ago
  > willing to sell those parts to Russia Not sure about this, it's not about will, it's about not being thrown in a sanction package youself.
  - MarcellusDrum 4y ago
    It's not like the US/EU can just sanction China and India on top of the Russian and Iranian sanctions. All that would do is make those countries more economically connected than ever before, and creating an alternative for smaller sanctioned countries like Syria and Venezuela, making all sanctions useless.
    - Isinlor 4y ago
      They would risk their biggest market with potential for growth for a tiny market that is shrinking further. Also, China may not like NATO, but they are not great fans of the war in Ukraine either.
    - benj111 4y ago
      Where does China and india sell its stuff to? They both rely on oil and gas so aren't willing to negotiate on that, but they are dependent on the west for trade so will play ball.
      - MarcellusDrum 4y ago
        > Where does China and india sell its stuff to? True, but this works in reverse as well. Where does the US/Europe get their stuff from? Obviously western society won't collapse due to the lack of Chinese merchandise, but it will have a huge effect.
    - justinnf 4y ago
      Which is exactly where this is all heading.
  - MonkeyClub 4y ago
    The threat of sanctions seems to be greater than actual sanctions, if the past four months are anything to go by. If anything, the sanctions that were imposed on Russia only served to illustrate the above, and may serve as incentive to other dictatorial hopefuls.
- 0xB31B1B 4y ago
  The parts in question (semi coonductors, oil services equipment, jet engine parts) are not manufactured in India or china.
  - vntok 4y ago
    Not sure what your point is. Countries can perfectly export manufactured parts that they import from elsewhere. Again, this comes at a cost, which while prohibitive to some is not an issue for Russia, sitting on a pile of cash as they are.
    - 0xB31B1B 4y ago
      It’s not just the parts though, it’s the expertise. Boeing has maintenance systems and programs that Russia does not have access to. The parts and schedules and materials are not really pirateable. The package needed is a combination of a part, a trained worker to do a job, a set of custom monitors/tools to do the maintenance (all owned and leased out by the US cos), and the custom parts themself. What Russia is doing right now is canabalizing their planes for used parts, which can only get you so far. Oil services is much more complicated and they’re production is going to decrease say 20% yoy for a long time as the oil services firms like schlumberger have withdrawn. I worked at an startup digitizing industrial maintenance SOPs for aerospace, oil services and manufacturing and have dealt with this extensively.
jansen555 4y ago

vntok 4y ago

Surely China and India are willing to sell those parts to Russia.. for the right price.

jacobolus 4y ago
China and India don’t e.g. make the equipment needed to keep Russian fossil fuel extraction working in the medium term.
ElectricalUnion 4y ago
> willing to sell those parts to Russia Not sure about this, it's not about will, it's about not being thrown in a sanction package youself.
- MarcellusDrum 4y ago
  It's not like the US/EU can just sanction China and India on top of the Russian and Iranian sanctions. All that would do is make those countries more economically connected than ever before, and creating an alternative for smaller sanctioned countries like Syria and Venezuela, making all sanctions useless.
  - Isinlor 4y ago
    They would risk their biggest market with potential for growth for a tiny market that is shrinking further. Also, China may not like NATO, but they are not great fans of the war in Ukraine either.
  - benj111 4y ago
    Where does China and india sell its stuff to? They both rely on oil and gas so aren't willing to negotiate on that, but they are dependent on the west for trade so will play ball.
    - MarcellusDrum 4y ago
      > Where does China and india sell its stuff to? True, but this works in reverse as well. Where does the US/Europe get their stuff from? Obviously western society won't collapse due to the lack of Chinese merchandise, but it will have a huge effect.
  - justinnf 4y ago
    Which is exactly where this is all heading.
- MonkeyClub 4y ago
  The threat of sanctions seems to be greater than actual sanctions, if the past four months are anything to go by. If anything, the sanctions that were imposed on Russia only served to illustrate the above, and may serve as incentive to other dictatorial hopefuls.
0xB31B1B 4y ago
The parts in question (semi coonductors, oil services equipment, jet engine parts) are not manufactured in India or china.
- vntok 4y ago
  Not sure what your point is. Countries can perfectly export manufactured parts that they import from elsewhere. Again, this comes at a cost, which while prohibitive to some is not an issue for Russia, sitting on a pile of cash as they are.
  - 0xB31B1B 4y ago
    It’s not just the parts though, it’s the expertise. Boeing has maintenance systems and programs that Russia does not have access to. The parts and schedules and materials are not really pirateable. The package needed is a combination of a part, a trained worker to do a job, a set of custom monitors/tools to do the maintenance (all owned and leased out by the US cos), and the custom parts themself. What Russia is doing right now is canabalizing their planes for used parts, which can only get you so far. Oil services is much more complicated and they’re production is going to decrease say 20% yoy for a long time as the oil services firms like schlumberger have withdrawn. I worked at an startup digitizing industrial maintenance SOPs for aerospace, oil services and manufacturing and have dealt with this extensively.

jansen555 4y ago