5 ms·

Notice how this news tends to come out just after major Russian advances (Severodonetsk).

by tus666 4y ago

MilnerRoute 4y ago
The article cites both a senior Western official and actual UK intelligence assessments to back up its claims: The “creeping” advances are dependent almost entirely on the expenditure of vast quantities of ammunition, notably artillery shells, which are being fired at a rate almost no military in the world would be able to sustain for long, said the senior Western official. Russia, meanwhile, is continuing to suffer heavy losses of equipment and men, calling into question how much longer it can remain on the attack, the official said. Officials refuse to offer a time frame, but British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, citing intelligence assessments, indicated this week that Russia would be able to continue to fight on only for the “next few months.” After that, “Russia could come to a point when there is no longer any forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources,” he told the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung in an interview.
- tus666 4y ago
  Where do you think propaganda comes from exactly?
  - MilnerRoute 4y ago
    A Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews also seems to think Russia is exhausting its combat capability. (Interesting Twitter thread...) https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1541036376703090689 https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/15410363767030906... The strategic studies professor says "the Russians are only making an effort in a very small area of the line.... This scaling back is a sign of failure. The Russians have shown no ability to make and exploit a breakthrough in the Donbas (indeed I haven't seen anything worthy of being called a breakthrough in the whole battle). They make small, incremental, expensive advances. "Russian failure has led them to 'recalibrate' their entire plan and add very limited objectives. They have finally achieved one (seizing SDonetsk) but compared to where we were on April 18, this was probably the least ambitious objective Russia could have set.... The Ukranian withdrawal from Severodonetsk is not some great 'strategic' victory for Russia. It does not effect in any way Ukraine's ability to regenerate force and keep fighting the war. At best its a tactical adjustment." "Also worth pointing out that there are signs of a growing Ukrainian resistance movement behind Russian lines."
    - tus666 4y ago
      When you hear the words "Strategic Studies" you should immediately think of CIA linked think tanks and the like.
      - ksaj 4y ago
        I can't count how many times I've already heard how Russia only has X amount of money left, Y amount of soldiers left, Z amounts of capacity left. Sure they originally thought it would take 3 days. BUT every "estimation" I've heard of how long Russia can sustain this keeps going past, and new limits are invented and presented as "fact" shortly thereafter. tus666 has nailed it. You just have to look at all the other projections over the past few months and it is pretty clear. The claims that this will likely be a protracted, expensive, and globally painful war seem to be the only ones that have continued to appear accurate.
        Arnt 4y ago
        You say that wrt. https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien — would you mind giving some examples?
- rasz 4y ago
  >only for the “next few months.” so for longer than current invasion to date, ok then. In other news RU dipped into their Belarusian bitch stocks https://ukranews.com/en/news/865098-belarus-hands-over-batch-of-ammunition-to-russia https://ukranews.com/en/news/865098-belarus-hands-over-batch...
- Normille 4y ago
  >The article cites both a senior Western official and actual UK intelligence assessments... Cue the Mandy Rice Davies Defence
Arnt 4y ago
The russians advanced on and conquered Severodonetsk at very roughly 1% of of a turtle's walking speed. What's a minor advance, if that's major?

Notice how this news tends to come out just after major Russian advances (Severodonetsk).

by tus666 4y ago

Notice how this news tends to come out just after major Russian advances (Severodonetsk).

The article cites both a senior Western official and actual UK intelligence assessments to back up its claims: The “creeping” advances are dependent almost entirely on the expenditure of vast quantities of ammunition, notably artillery shells, which are being fired at a rate almost no military in the world would be able to sustain for long, said the senior Western official. Russia, meanwhile, is continuing to suffer heavy losses of equipment and men, calling into question how much longer it can remain on the attack, the official said. Officials refuse to offer a time frame, but British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, citing intelligence assessments, indicated this week that Russia would be able to continue to fight on only for the “next few months.” After that, “Russia could come to a point when there is no longer any forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources,” he told the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung in an interview.

tus666 4y ago
Where do you think propaganda comes from exactly?
- MilnerRoute 4y ago
  A Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews also seems to think Russia is exhausting its combat capability. (Interesting Twitter thread...) https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1541036376703090689 https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/15410363767030906... The strategic studies professor says "the Russians are only making an effort in a very small area of the line.... This scaling back is a sign of failure. The Russians have shown no ability to make and exploit a breakthrough in the Donbas (indeed I haven't seen anything worthy of being called a breakthrough in the whole battle). They make small, incremental, expensive advances. "Russian failure has led them to 'recalibrate' their entire plan and add very limited objectives. They have finally achieved one (seizing SDonetsk) but compared to where we were on April 18, this was probably the least ambitious objective Russia could have set.... The Ukranian withdrawal from Severodonetsk is not some great 'strategic' victory for Russia. It does not effect in any way Ukraine's ability to regenerate force and keep fighting the war. At best its a tactical adjustment." "Also worth pointing out that there are signs of a growing Ukrainian resistance movement behind Russian lines."
  - tus666 4y ago
    When you hear the words "Strategic Studies" you should immediately think of CIA linked think tanks and the like.
    - ksaj 4y ago
      I can't count how many times I've already heard how Russia only has X amount of money left, Y amount of soldiers left, Z amounts of capacity left. Sure they originally thought it would take 3 days. BUT every "estimation" I've heard of how long Russia can sustain this keeps going past, and new limits are invented and presented as "fact" shortly thereafter. tus666 has nailed it. You just have to look at all the other projections over the past few months and it is pretty clear. The claims that this will likely be a protracted, expensive, and globally painful war seem to be the only ones that have continued to appear accurate.
      - Arnt 4y ago
        You say that wrt. https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien — would you mind giving some examples?
rasz 4y ago
>only for the “next few months.” so for longer than current invasion to date, ok then. In other news RU dipped into their Belarusian bitch stocks https://ukranews.com/en/news/865098-belarus-hands-over-batch-of-ammunition-to-russia https://ukranews.com/en/news/865098-belarus-hands-over-batch...
Normille 4y ago
>The article cites both a senior Western official and actual UK intelligence assessments... Cue the Mandy Rice Davies Defence

Arnt 4y ago

The russians advanced on and conquered Severodonetsk at very roughly 1% of of a turtle's walking speed. What's a minor advance, if that's major?