The point isn't that the long tail hadn't existed before, it's that more people have access to it through new technology. In other words, it's the difference of

The point isn't that the long tail hadn't existed before, it's that more people have access to it through new technology. In other words, it's the difference of approximating a probability distribution with 1 billion points instead of 1 million. Before the internet, long tail effects were present with the 1M that could get past the gauntlet of labels and distribution conglomerates. After the internet, musicians had better avenues to get money more directly from fans and fans had better tools for discovery. You characterize it as being a zero-sum game but I don't believe this is right. I think it's easier now than ever to generate a (small, potentially liveable) income stream from 'mediocre dance music', niche writer, etc. There are more full-time musicians and musicians earning a living than there were 20 years ago [0] [1]. This is directly due to the internet being the distribution channel. I would imagine other fields have been effected similarly though I haven't seen a broad study. [0] https://www.techdirt.com/2013/05/30/massive-growth-independent-musicians-singers-over-past-decade/ https://www.techdirt.com/2013/05/30/massive-growth-independe... [1] https://www.rollingstone.com/pro/features/raine-group-independent-artists-2-billion-in-2020-967138/ https://www.rollingstone.com/pro/features/raine-group-indepe...