It seems obvious to me that giant fiscal stimulus was a factor in today’s inflation to the extent that it gave households extra cash to spend once the pandemic

It seems obvious to me that giant fiscal stimulus was a factor in today’s inflation to the extent that it gave households extra cash to spend once the pandemic restrictions eased up. All that spending hit physical goods at first, and now services. Because politicians are loath to take away the punch bowl just when things are getting good, central banks usually have to do so via interest rates and money supply. And because politicians are unlikely to increase taxes or reduce spending to mop up the extra cash, it’s likely that sustained, harsh monetary policy will be required. This policy will put the economy into recession for a time, will reset asset values, and will lead to higher unemployment. And central banks will inevitably overshoot, because it’s nigh impossible to predict the path of the macroeconomy with much accuracy.