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Copilot currently is very far from being able to cut 33% of the time spend writing code, let alone 33% of the working time of the average software engineer. In

Copilot currently is very far from being able to cut 33% of the time spend writing code, let alone 33% of the working time of the average software engineer. In 3-4 years - maybe, but not now. That being said, luddism was a thing for obvious reasons and it's not clear to me that we will be able to create any jobs at all post automation with this type of AI models. At the very least what will happen is that human intelligence will be devalued significantly in the job market.

cdrini 4y ago
Oh yeah those numbers were hogwash, I was just looking for a number less than 3 :P I was thinking like small mom and pop shop that has like a small Dev team for some reason might be able to reduce it down. Vox hosted a fantastic discussion with artists after showing them Dalle, and their thoughts on how it'll affect their jobs are very interesting! Would highly recommend. https://youtu.be/sFBfrZ-N3G4 https://youtu.be/sFBfrZ-N3G4 it notes a few times in history when people have thought a technology would dangerously displace jobs (eg photography replacing painters), but that in general new, unforseen jobs appear. I know some argue that UBI is the natural conclusion of AI replacing more jobs. Or jobs shifting to be more coordinating the AI (the Vox video uses the term "prompt engineering" to describe this a bit). It's definitely an open question! But I'm honestly a little excited (and nervous!) to see where it goes. It could have realty positive impacts on humanity if we're careful! I think these tools could allow a certain level of individual productivity that would allow people to achieve more of their goals in our limited lifetimes :) But the future is murky and not guaranteed.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > I know some argue that UBI is the natural conclusion of AI replacing more jobs UBI is not the natural consequence of automation increasing the value of automation and reducing the relative value of all other labor, sharply increasing inequality and with extraordinary concentrated wealth and increasingly broad poverty is. UBI is a potential intervention to mitigate that natural consequence, though.

cdrini 4y ago

Oh yeah those numbers were hogwash, I was just looking for a number less than 3 :P I was thinking like small mom and pop shop that has like a small Dev team for some reason might be able to reduce it down. Vox hosted a fantastic discussion with artists after showing them Dalle, and their thoughts on how it'll affect their jobs are very interesting! Would highly recommend. https://youtu.be/sFBfrZ-N3G4 https://youtu.be/sFBfrZ-N3G4 it notes a few times in history when people have thought a technology would dangerously displace jobs (eg photography replacing painters), but that in general new, unforseen jobs appear. I know some argue that UBI is the natural conclusion of AI replacing more jobs. Or jobs shifting to be more coordinating the AI (the Vox video uses the term "prompt engineering" to describe this a bit). It's definitely an open question! But I'm honestly a little excited (and nervous!) to see where it goes. It could have realty positive impacts on humanity if we're careful! I think these tools could allow a certain level of individual productivity that would allow people to achieve more of their goals in our limited lifetimes :) But the future is murky and not guaranteed.

dragonwriter 4y ago
> I know some argue that UBI is the natural conclusion of AI replacing more jobs UBI is not the natural consequence of automation increasing the value of automation and reducing the relative value of all other labor, sharply increasing inequality and with extraordinary concentrated wealth and increasingly broad poverty is. UBI is a potential intervention to mitigate that natural consequence, though.