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I won't pretend to know the specifics of the legal decision that will follow from this, but it's easy to guess that when those tools start causing structural un

I won't pretend to know the specifics of the legal decision that will follow from this, but it's easy to guess that when those tools start causing structural unemployment (and that will happen soon enough), there will be a backlash. Even the most naive takes I see here (it's no different than you reading public code = "the AI should be treated the same as a human") will be forced to re-evaluate their position once they become unemployable because of these AIs.

V__ 4y ago
> when those tools start causing structural unemployment (and that will happen soon enough) Is this actually happening? Some years ago there were articles about neural networks which can find errors/interesting points in law documents or find tumors during cancer imaging, but did this actually replace any jobs instead of just being an additional tool?
- trention 4y ago
  There is a capability line that needs to be crossed before we start seeing this. Which I think most of those older systems didn't cross. For me, one answer to this could be given when we're able to compare the number of illustrators employed in the US in June 2022 vs in June 2027. + the delta of the average salary.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
cdrini 4y ago
I don't think Copilot is at any risk of causing unemployment yet, but Dalle could very likely replace a number of graphic design jobs in marketing right now. I think it's an important question, but at the same time, replacing jobs didn't stop the spinning Jenny from taking the textile industry by storm. In fact the exact opposite was true. It was popular specifically because it replaced paid jobs with fewer paid jobs. I don't know if there was backlash at the time, but jobs get destroyed and rebuilt by technology all the time, for better or worse. Edit: actually I take that back. I think a team that previously needed 3 developers might get away with only 1 or 2 developers thanks to improved productivity from copilot. So it can replace jobs in that way. Dalle can make a team that has one designer go to 0 designers.
- trention 4y ago
  Copilot currently is very far from being able to cut 33% of the time spend writing code, let alone 33% of the working time of the average software engineer. In 3-4 years - maybe, but not now. That being said, luddism was a thing for obvious reasons and it's not clear to me that we will be able to create any jobs at all post automation with this type of AI models. At the very least what will happen is that human intelligence will be devalued significantly in the job market.
  - cdrini 4y ago
    Oh yeah those numbers were hogwash, I was just looking for a number less than 3 :P I was thinking like small mom and pop shop that has like a small Dev team for some reason might be able to reduce it down. Vox hosted a fantastic discussion with artists after showing them Dalle, and their thoughts on how it'll affect their jobs are very interesting! Would highly recommend. https://youtu.be/sFBfrZ-N3G4 https://youtu.be/sFBfrZ-N3G4 it notes a few times in history when people have thought a technology would dangerously displace jobs (eg photography replacing painters), but that in general new, unforseen jobs appear. I know some argue that UBI is the natural conclusion of AI replacing more jobs. Or jobs shifting to be more coordinating the AI (the Vox video uses the term "prompt engineering" to describe this a bit). It's definitely an open question! But I'm honestly a little excited (and nervous!) to see where it goes. It could have realty positive impacts on humanity if we're careful! I think these tools could allow a certain level of individual productivity that would allow people to achieve more of their goals in our limited lifetimes :) But the future is murky and not guaranteed.
    - dragonwriter 4y ago
      > I know some argue that UBI is the natural conclusion of AI replacing more jobs UBI is not the natural consequence of automation increasing the value of automation and reducing the relative value of all other labor, sharply increasing inequality and with extraordinary concentrated wealth and increasingly broad poverty is. UBI is a potential intervention to mitigate that natural consequence, though.
- 4y ago

V__ 4y ago

> when those tools start causing structural unemployment (and that will happen soon enough) Is this actually happening? Some years ago there were articles about neural networks which can find errors/interesting points in law documents or find tumors during cancer imaging, but did this actually replace any jobs instead of just being an additional tool?

trention 4y ago
There is a capability line that needs to be crossed before we start seeing this. Which I think most of those older systems didn't cross. For me, one answer to this could be given when we're able to compare the number of illustrators employed in the US in June 2022 vs in June 2027. + the delta of the average salary.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

cdrini 4y ago

I don't think Copilot is at any risk of causing unemployment yet, but Dalle could very likely replace a number of graphic design jobs in marketing right now. I think it's an important question, but at the same time, replacing jobs didn't stop the spinning Jenny from taking the textile industry by storm. In fact the exact opposite was true. It was popular specifically because it replaced paid jobs with fewer paid jobs. I don't know if there was backlash at the time, but jobs get destroyed and rebuilt by technology all the time, for better or worse. Edit: actually I take that back. I think a team that previously needed 3 developers might get away with only 1 or 2 developers thanks to improved productivity from copilot. So it can replace jobs in that way. Dalle can make a team that has one designer go to 0 designers.

trention 4y ago
Copilot currently is very far from being able to cut 33% of the time spend writing code, let alone 33% of the working time of the average software engineer. In 3-4 years - maybe, but not now. That being said, luddism was a thing for obvious reasons and it's not clear to me that we will be able to create any jobs at all post automation with this type of AI models. At the very least what will happen is that human intelligence will be devalued significantly in the job market.
- cdrini 4y ago
  Oh yeah those numbers were hogwash, I was just looking for a number less than 3 :P I was thinking like small mom and pop shop that has like a small Dev team for some reason might be able to reduce it down. Vox hosted a fantastic discussion with artists after showing them Dalle, and their thoughts on how it'll affect their jobs are very interesting! Would highly recommend. https://youtu.be/sFBfrZ-N3G4 https://youtu.be/sFBfrZ-N3G4 it notes a few times in history when people have thought a technology would dangerously displace jobs (eg photography replacing painters), but that in general new, unforseen jobs appear. I know some argue that UBI is the natural conclusion of AI replacing more jobs. Or jobs shifting to be more coordinating the AI (the Vox video uses the term "prompt engineering" to describe this a bit). It's definitely an open question! But I'm honestly a little excited (and nervous!) to see where it goes. It could have realty positive impacts on humanity if we're careful! I think these tools could allow a certain level of individual productivity that would allow people to achieve more of their goals in our limited lifetimes :) But the future is murky and not guaranteed.
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > I know some argue that UBI is the natural conclusion of AI replacing more jobs UBI is not the natural consequence of automation increasing the value of automation and reducing the relative value of all other labor, sharply increasing inequality and with extraordinary concentrated wealth and increasingly broad poverty is. UBI is a potential intervention to mitigate that natural consequence, though.
4y ago