4 ms·
Can you even get away with object tracking? It always seemed to me that there were a lot of latent phenomena you'd need to model in order to get the dynamics of
by tel 15y ago
Can you even get away with object tracking? It always seemed to me that there were a lot of latent phenomena you'd need to model in order to get the dynamics of cloud motion. There's wind producing a line linear drift, but also a lot of pressure and humidity interaction.
- _delirium 15y agoIf you want a real physical simulation, there's tons of stuff yeah, but on a short term you can find considerable statistical regularities just by looking at how things move, while being agnostic about why they move that way. Over a 30-minute period, storm tracks tend to be semi-regular (though varies by region); if a storm's been moving ESE at 3 mph, and you have a bunch of historical data, you can come up with a decent predictive distribution over its likely heading/speed for the next 30 minutes. The uncertainty in the distribution is basically where all the un-modeled physical phenomena fall. If uncertainty is too high, then you can try to add in more complex models, or additional data (e.g. wind readings at various points, in addition to radar images).
- tel 15y agoIt's always seemed to me that weather clouds don't seem to move as much as evolve directionally. That's where this intuition is coming from, though I suppose I'm not honestly surprised to find that gross motion is predictive as well.
- shalmanese 15y agoA quick-and-dirty way I've seen a friend do it is to compress the images into h.264 and then extract the motion vectors. It's not the optimal algorithm but it does a pretty serviceable job and you're building off a large body of previous image tracking work.
- DarkShikari 15y agoMVTools is a dedicated Avisynth plugin designed to detect real motion, which is probably more suitable. Encoders only minimize residual, not find real motion vectors.