4 ms·

You're working with the edge case in your example where a really smart person can get an amazing job right out of high school. It's more instructive to look at

You're working with the edge case in your example where a really smart person can get an amazing job right out of high school. It's more instructive to look at the average case: - In the current economy, the number of high school grads making $40k/year is vanishingly small. It's more likely he'd be making 25k or less if he has a job at all. - 25k for living expenses and books for a college student is way too high unless she's going to school across the country and flies home a ton. - The average student doesn't pay 40k/year in tuition unless he has rich parents and is a below-average student. The average is less than 20k. Let's redo the math: Tuition: 20k * 4 = 80k Living Expenses: 15k * 4 = 60k Total Expense: 140k Let's say that our college student gets a below-average job that pays 32k/year. In a 35 year career with 3% raises, our high school grad makes a total of $1,511,552. In a 31 year career with 3% raises, our college grad makes a total of $1,600,086. Considering the time value of that $140,000, it's a wash. Go to college and study poetry if you want. The impact to your long-term bottom line is negligible.

maratd 15y ago
> You're working with the edge case The only people on this site, by definition, are edge cases. I really don't like mental masturbation, so I was really speaking to everyone reading this thread. Your post absolutely applies for the average person. Even for the edge cases, I'm not implying you shouldn't go to college. There is still the social aspect to consider. But, honestly, it's about time people started thinking about the option of not going to college. It's not such a terrible option and does not spell immediate doooooom.
beambot 15y ago
I believe his math was accounting for the 4 years of lost wages during college as an opportunity cost of $32k/yr * 4yr = $128k for a total college expense of $140k + $128k = $268k. Now, if you could invest that money at 3% compound interest over 30 years, you're talking about $650k -- that's 33% of your final career totals. (When I do that calculation for my 10 years of BS+PhD engineering, its pretty dramatic!)
- _delirium 15y ago
  That's assuming that an 18-year-old outside of the tech field could get a $32k/yr job to begin with. Looking at the unemployment rates for people without college degrees, there's a pretty large chance they wouldn't be able to get any job at all.
  - TheCapn 15y ago
    There's too many variables for people to be crunching numbers like this... while I went through university I lived at home and worked at jobs that paid $17/hour minimum. My total take home would probably be comparable to that of a person making less but paying for room and board. I say this with the assumption that those who skipped post-secondary education in favor of a job moved out of their homes almost immediately. So where are those types of values in the calculations? Now that I've graduated my starting job is ~$60k with a $20k annual raise once I've been in this position for a little over three years. There's not one friend that started work directly out of school that I can say that for. Not to mention my degree allows me to venture to the upper ends of this company where education is a requirement while they'll plateau in seniority because of that. Again, way too many variables and gray areas for us to do a number to number comparison because no two situations are identical and the idea of "average" or "typical" probably only makes up a small percentage of personae anyway.
    - beambot 15y ago
      I'm assuming you graduated with a bachelors? At the end of your BS, it's definitely worth thinking about opportunity cost (eg. is graduate school "worth it"). When I was working toward my PhD (engineering, with goals to eventually be entrepreneur)... I had to fend off detractors: "if you want to make money or do a startup, stop at a MS and get out there." I politely disagreed. Getting my PhD was a personal goal and shouldn't detract from future entrepreneurial activities. Like you, I lived frugally during my entire educational experience, and the tuition was largely paid for through scholarship / fellowship. For talented people (who could prosper after dropping out), college expenses can be fairly minimal.
dredmorbius 15y ago
What do those stats look like normed for some proxy of intelligence, say, IQ, SAT/ACT scores, etc.? I'm not sold either way on the debate myself. I think there are a lot of people in college who'd be better off outside, and a lot of people outside who'd be better off in. More to the point: I think that society as a whole would be better off with a different distribution of higher education opportunity. Paraphrasing William Gibson: higher education is here, it's just not evenly distributed.

maratd 15y ago

> You're working with the edge case The only people on this site, by definition, are edge cases. I really don't like mental masturbation, so I was really speaking to everyone reading this thread. Your post absolutely applies for the average person. Even for the edge cases, I'm not implying you shouldn't go to college. There is still the social aspect to consider. But, honestly, it's about time people started thinking about the option of not going to college. It's not such a terrible option and does not spell immediate doooooom.

beambot 15y ago

I believe his math was accounting for the 4 years of lost wages during college as an opportunity cost of $32k/yr * 4yr = $128k for a total college expense of $140k + $128k = $268k. Now, if you could invest that money at 3% compound interest over 30 years, you're talking about $650k -- that's 33% of your final career totals. (When I do that calculation for my 10 years of BS+PhD engineering, its pretty dramatic!)

_delirium 15y ago
That's assuming that an 18-year-old outside of the tech field could get a $32k/yr job to begin with. Looking at the unemployment rates for people without college degrees, there's a pretty large chance they wouldn't be able to get any job at all.
- TheCapn 15y ago
  There's too many variables for people to be crunching numbers like this... while I went through university I lived at home and worked at jobs that paid $17/hour minimum. My total take home would probably be comparable to that of a person making less but paying for room and board. I say this with the assumption that those who skipped post-secondary education in favor of a job moved out of their homes almost immediately. So where are those types of values in the calculations? Now that I've graduated my starting job is ~$60k with a $20k annual raise once I've been in this position for a little over three years. There's not one friend that started work directly out of school that I can say that for. Not to mention my degree allows me to venture to the upper ends of this company where education is a requirement while they'll plateau in seniority because of that. Again, way too many variables and gray areas for us to do a number to number comparison because no two situations are identical and the idea of "average" or "typical" probably only makes up a small percentage of personae anyway.
  - beambot 15y ago
    I'm assuming you graduated with a bachelors? At the end of your BS, it's definitely worth thinking about opportunity cost (eg. is graduate school "worth it"). When I was working toward my PhD (engineering, with goals to eventually be entrepreneur)... I had to fend off detractors: "if you want to make money or do a startup, stop at a MS and get out there." I politely disagreed. Getting my PhD was a personal goal and shouldn't detract from future entrepreneurial activities. Like you, I lived frugally during my entire educational experience, and the tuition was largely paid for through scholarship / fellowship. For talented people (who could prosper after dropping out), college expenses can be fairly minimal.

dredmorbius 15y ago

What do those stats look like normed for some proxy of intelligence, say, IQ, SAT/ACT scores, etc.? I'm not sold either way on the debate myself. I think there are a lot of people in college who'd be better off outside, and a lot of people outside who'd be better off in. More to the point: I think that society as a whole would be better off with a different distribution of higher education opportunity. Paraphrasing William Gibson: higher education is here, it's just not evenly distributed.