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> That is a complete failure and it just took one crypto crash. Disclosure: I hold virtually no crypto (a few thousand XRP) As I watch this show from the side

> That is a complete failure and it just took one crypto crash. Disclosure: I hold virtually no crypto (a few thousand XRP) As I watch this show from the sidelines, I wonder if the latest crash (and no doubt future crashes) isn't exactly the force needed to distribute crypto more widely into more hands, normalizing to some roughly steady state value. After several swings of the pendulum, you end up at some more or less stable value with many more users, making actual marketetplace purchases with crypto more ubiquitous. I guess time will tell, eh?

clpm4j 4y ago
Who does the distribution? The vast majority of people in the world can't afford to buy crypto. The people who hold most of the BTC, ETH, SOL, and whatever other major coins were already rich before they got into it. Maybe single digit thousands of people went from non-rich to rich through buying and holding crypto, but that's a tiny fraction.
- rglover 4y ago
  > The vast majority of people in the world can't afford to buy crypto. You can buy fractions of it, meaning the affordability is relative to the individual and what they can spend.
  - clpm4j 4y ago
    That just means poor people are dividing their already limited resources to buy a fraction of something that they can't use to pay for rent, food, and clothing. If you can only afford to buy a fraction of something, then you can't afford it.
    - rglover 4y ago
      That's rapidly changing. Considering that Bitcoin has the potential to help more than it hurts (developing countries don't have to plan growth at the barrel of a Western gun), there's an incentive to start moving in the direction of making it a standard. See Central African Republic and El Salvador. Countries are waking up to the mafia operation that is the IMF and its favorite weapon, the dollar. Because it's still early in the adoption cycle, critics will continue to be "correct" until one day they wake up and find they've been left behind.
      - el-salvador 4y ago
        > See Central African Republic and El Salvador. Countries are waking up to the mafia operation that is the IMF and its favorite weapon, the dollar. I'm not an economist, but doesn't the IMF use a basket of currencies called SDRs instead of dollars? And isn't the IMF owned by member countries? Interestingly, El Salvador still owns more IMF shares than Bitcoin. - El Salvador Bitcoin: 49million USD after compunding for -53% losses [2] - El Salvador IMF shares: 402 million USD (207 million SDRs) [1] [1] https://www.imf.org/en/About/executive-board/members-quotas https://www.imf.org/en/About/executive-board/members-quotas [2] https://nayibtracker.com/ https://nayibtracker.com/
        rglover 4y ago
        > doesn't the IMF use a basket of currencies called SDRs instead of dollars Yes, which are just claims on that basket of currencies, the U.S. Dollar being the majority currency (in the current 5 year basket 43.38% with the next closest being the Euro at 30.93%). My point was admittedly hyperbolic, but as the majority currency in the SDR basket (and the world reserve currency) the USD has both voting and trade sway as countries need it to pay debts and acquire resources. As for governance, U.S. votes account for over 16% (the greatest shareholder of votes) with the next closest being China at 6%. In effect, the U.S. has a soft-monopoly over the basket as the stated requirements for ranking/inclusion "take into account their current prominence in terms of international trade and national foreign exchange reserves." Combine that with the U.S. military/intelligence threat, NATO threat, and all of the other tentacles of U.S. hegemony and its currency is—for all intents and purposes—a weapon. Something like Bitcoin is a significant enough threat that the IMF as steered by the U.S. is incentivized to dismiss it (and has [1]). As for El Salvador's holdings, well, yeah. Even as a Bitcoin maximalist I'd think Bukele were putting his country in a dangerous position short-term if he went all in as other countries would just threaten to cut them off from resources/aid (see link which makes my point). A full-blown transition to Bitcoin is going to need enough countries with tradeable resources to start accepting it as payment. Again, we're in the early days of the transition away from state currencies. The real battle will be when they try to rug pull everyone with CBDCs [2] (which is precisely when the intelligent but timid will realize that Bitcoin is the only option to preserve personal/state sovereignty). [1] https://www.ft.com/content/fbf9aef0-453f-4e61-bd83-ff2b2bc92221 https://www.ft.com/content/fbf9aef0-453f-4e61-bd83-ff2b2bc92... [2] https://twitter.com/martybent/status/1537946342890168323?s=21&t=i3dIJWkKIDHL34bR54hNkA https://twitter.com/martybent/status/1537946342890168323?s=2...
kevingadd 4y ago
How is a crash going to distribute eth or btc into more hands? A bunch of people losing their shirts doesn't seem like it's going to motivate more people to buy in, and individual investors may panic sell before prices go down further.
- rglover 4y ago
  > A bunch of people losing their shirts doesn't seem like it's going to motivate more people to buy in It will if they're smart enough to ask "why" people lost their shirts and take the POV of someone like John Templeton. The best time to buy is when everyone else is panicking or ignoring an asset you view as undervalued. Just like the stock market, though, that's not likely to happen. Most people are controlled by emotions, not logic, and so miss out on many opportunities.
tablespoon 4y ago
> I wonder if the latest crash (and no doubt future crashes) isn't exactly the force needed to distribute crypto more widely into more hands, normalizing to some roughly steady state value. No. Hodl the dip.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
rglover 4y ago
> exactly the force needed to distribute crypto more widely into more hands Yes, but not "crypto." Bitcoin. The entire crash was due to VCs and hedge funds overleveraging into shitcoins [1]. It started with Luna and that created a domino effect for the rest of it. Sprinkle on the panic typical to all markets and kablamo. In essence, that's good (albeit painful to some degree) because it's a truly free market. Bad players got washed out and there's more to come as far as I can tell. Fairly excited as, like you suggest, it means people have a chance to acquire more Bitcoin while they still can. [1] https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1524377921338724354 https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1524377921338724354
- mnd999 4y ago
  Bad players will be back next week with a better con.
  - rglover 4y ago
    Welcome to humanity, skipper.
7ewis 4y ago
I agree to some extent, but there are far too many shitcoins out there and people think it's all a 'get rich quick scheme'. There's also lots of bad press about crypto scams, we have things like Terra and other stablecoins losing their peg, all these smart contract hacks etc. Then we have all the whales and hedge funds manipulating the market, pump and dumps... it's really is the wild west out here still unfortunately. On top of all that, your parents probably think Crypto.com is the only place to buy it, and the more tech inclined may read 'not your keys, not your crypto', create a wallet and lose the keys or typo an address and lose the coins. Plus we can't forget all the newer investors, over the past year or two. All of which are probably deep in the red right now and will sell at any opportunity when things look to start improving (and probably tell their mates to avoid it too). I think the whole industry needs to take a step back, quietly work away for a few years, keep building things, improve security, increase trust. Drop all the DeFi farming pools with the ridiculous earn rates, stop the hype every time a new coin is launched. Get back to basics, create some real utility. I'm not sure what the answer is on stablecoins or encouraging people to spend crypto. I think it's become too ingrained in peoples heads that crypto is an investment rather than a currency. Stablecoins were a partial answer to that, but they also kind of defeat the purpose too. We're back to trusting the US government, Tether and/or algorithmic stablecoins - which so far have proved to _not_ work. I believe it will take decades for people to stop tracking their crypto holdings and always converting it back to local currencies. Maybe we need some 'super' stable coin, that's backed by stocks, currencies (fiat and crypto) globally but not pegged to any one thing, kind of like an ETF? Is that possible algorithmically though and would governments ever legalise it and allow people to be paid in it? I do think the tech that the crypto industry has created is great, and I do hold numerous cryptocurrencies (and am making a loss too...) but we're a long way off making prices recoveries, rebuilding trust and actually becoming useful in society.

clpm4j 4y ago

Who does the distribution? The vast majority of people in the world can't afford to buy crypto. The people who hold most of the BTC, ETH, SOL, and whatever other major coins were already rich before they got into it. Maybe single digit thousands of people went from non-rich to rich through buying and holding crypto, but that's a tiny fraction.

rglover 4y ago
> The vast majority of people in the world can't afford to buy crypto. You can buy fractions of it, meaning the affordability is relative to the individual and what they can spend.
- clpm4j 4y ago
  That just means poor people are dividing their already limited resources to buy a fraction of something that they can't use to pay for rent, food, and clothing. If you can only afford to buy a fraction of something, then you can't afford it.
  - rglover 4y ago
    That's rapidly changing. Considering that Bitcoin has the potential to help more than it hurts (developing countries don't have to plan growth at the barrel of a Western gun), there's an incentive to start moving in the direction of making it a standard. See Central African Republic and El Salvador. Countries are waking up to the mafia operation that is the IMF and its favorite weapon, the dollar. Because it's still early in the adoption cycle, critics will continue to be "correct" until one day they wake up and find they've been left behind.
    - el-salvador 4y ago
      > See Central African Republic and El Salvador. Countries are waking up to the mafia operation that is the IMF and its favorite weapon, the dollar. I'm not an economist, but doesn't the IMF use a basket of currencies called SDRs instead of dollars? And isn't the IMF owned by member countries? Interestingly, El Salvador still owns more IMF shares than Bitcoin. - El Salvador Bitcoin: 49million USD after compunding for -53% losses [2] - El Salvador IMF shares: 402 million USD (207 million SDRs) [1] [1] https://www.imf.org/en/About/executive-board/members-quotas https://www.imf.org/en/About/executive-board/members-quotas [2] https://nayibtracker.com/ https://nayibtracker.com/
      - rglover 4y ago
        > doesn't the IMF use a basket of currencies called SDRs instead of dollars Yes, which are just claims on that basket of currencies, the U.S. Dollar being the majority currency (in the current 5 year basket 43.38% with the next closest being the Euro at 30.93%). My point was admittedly hyperbolic, but as the majority currency in the SDR basket (and the world reserve currency) the USD has both voting and trade sway as countries need it to pay debts and acquire resources. As for governance, U.S. votes account for over 16% (the greatest shareholder of votes) with the next closest being China at 6%. In effect, the U.S. has a soft-monopoly over the basket as the stated requirements for ranking/inclusion "take into account their current prominence in terms of international trade and national foreign exchange reserves." Combine that with the U.S. military/intelligence threat, NATO threat, and all of the other tentacles of U.S. hegemony and its currency is—for all intents and purposes—a weapon. Something like Bitcoin is a significant enough threat that the IMF as steered by the U.S. is incentivized to dismiss it (and has [1]). As for El Salvador's holdings, well, yeah. Even as a Bitcoin maximalist I'd think Bukele were putting his country in a dangerous position short-term if he went all in as other countries would just threaten to cut them off from resources/aid (see link which makes my point). A full-blown transition to Bitcoin is going to need enough countries with tradeable resources to start accepting it as payment. Again, we're in the early days of the transition away from state currencies. The real battle will be when they try to rug pull everyone with CBDCs [2] (which is precisely when the intelligent but timid will realize that Bitcoin is the only option to preserve personal/state sovereignty). [1] https://www.ft.com/content/fbf9aef0-453f-4e61-bd83-ff2b2bc92221 https://www.ft.com/content/fbf9aef0-453f-4e61-bd83-ff2b2bc92... [2] https://twitter.com/martybent/status/1537946342890168323?s=21&t=i3dIJWkKIDHL34bR54hNkA https://twitter.com/martybent/status/1537946342890168323?s=2...

kevingadd 4y ago

How is a crash going to distribute eth or btc into more hands? A bunch of people losing their shirts doesn't seem like it's going to motivate more people to buy in, and individual investors may panic sell before prices go down further.

rglover 4y ago
> A bunch of people losing their shirts doesn't seem like it's going to motivate more people to buy in It will if they're smart enough to ask "why" people lost their shirts and take the POV of someone like John Templeton. The best time to buy is when everyone else is panicking or ignoring an asset you view as undervalued. Just like the stock market, though, that's not likely to happen. Most people are controlled by emotions, not logic, and so miss out on many opportunities.

tablespoon 4y ago

> I wonder if the latest crash (and no doubt future crashes) isn't exactly the force needed to distribute crypto more widely into more hands, normalizing to some roughly steady state value. No. Hodl the dip.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

rglover 4y ago

> exactly the force needed to distribute crypto more widely into more hands Yes, but not "crypto." Bitcoin. The entire crash was due to VCs and hedge funds overleveraging into shitcoins [1]. It started with Luna and that created a domino effect for the rest of it. Sprinkle on the panic typical to all markets and kablamo. In essence, that's good (albeit painful to some degree) because it's a truly free market. Bad players got washed out and there's more to come as far as I can tell. Fairly excited as, like you suggest, it means people have a chance to acquire more Bitcoin while they still can. [1] https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1524377921338724354 https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1524377921338724354

mnd999 4y ago
Bad players will be back next week with a better con.
- rglover 4y ago
  Welcome to humanity, skipper.

7ewis 4y ago

I agree to some extent, but there are far too many shitcoins out there and people think it's all a 'get rich quick scheme'. There's also lots of bad press about crypto scams, we have things like Terra and other stablecoins losing their peg, all these smart contract hacks etc. Then we have all the whales and hedge funds manipulating the market, pump and dumps... it's really is the wild west out here still unfortunately. On top of all that, your parents probably think Crypto.com is the only place to buy it, and the more tech inclined may read 'not your keys, not your crypto', create a wallet and lose the keys or typo an address and lose the coins. Plus we can't forget all the newer investors, over the past year or two. All of which are probably deep in the red right now and will sell at any opportunity when things look to start improving (and probably tell their mates to avoid it too). I think the whole industry needs to take a step back, quietly work away for a few years, keep building things, improve security, increase trust. Drop all the DeFi farming pools with the ridiculous earn rates, stop the hype every time a new coin is launched. Get back to basics, create some real utility. I'm not sure what the answer is on stablecoins or encouraging people to spend crypto. I think it's become too ingrained in peoples heads that crypto is an investment rather than a currency. Stablecoins were a partial answer to that, but they also kind of defeat the purpose too. We're back to trusting the US government, Tether and/or algorithmic stablecoins - which so far have proved to _not_ work. I believe it will take decades for people to stop tracking their crypto holdings and always converting it back to local currencies. Maybe we need some 'super' stable coin, that's backed by stocks, currencies (fiat and crypto) globally but not pegged to any one thing, kind of like an ETF? Is that possible algorithmically though and would governments ever legalise it and allow people to be paid in it? I do think the tech that the crypto industry has created is great, and I do hold numerous cryptocurrencies (and am making a loss too...) but we're a long way off making prices recoveries, rebuilding trust and actually becoming useful in society.