5 ms·

I think the important point is not whether this outbreak was in fact a lab leak, but that it is entirely plausible due to gain-of-function research. Even if th

I think the important point is not whether this outbreak was in fact a lab leak, but that it is entirely plausible due to gain-of-function research. Even if this one wasn’t a lab leak, the next one very well could be. The risk/reward profile of that sort of research is insanely unfavorable.

azekai 4y ago
This is the conversation we need to have, on an international level.
- EA_itsinthegame 4y ago
  When Australia proposed an international investigation into the origins, in direct response, China started cyber attacks, resentencing Australian prisoners to death, and used economic warfare. This seems like a conversation we can not have, if China has any say in it. And for a natural origin spillover event, it sure wants to have its say...
  - zo1 4y ago
    If your claims are true, then the fact that I (and others) didn't know this is seriously disturbing. I think a lot of people would have doubled down and pushed for alot more pressure and investigation into all of China's dealings across the board, if they had known. At the very least it's an indictment on our media which should be pointing out these curious coincidences. Instead I think they have other motives.
    - throwawaymaths 4y ago
      I don't know about the other two but Australian coal was put under sanction by china in the wake of their call for an investigation. This, ironically, was quite bad for china since it indirectly led to power cuts in some provinces because they couldn't use the lower grade of coal otherwise available. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/australia-finds-new-markets-for-coal-barley-amid-china-trade-fight.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/australia-finds-new-markets-... Power cuts later that fall: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58733193 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58733193
      - SiempreViernes 4y ago
        Doubly ironically is that this was probably the single most effective action Morrison took to limit climate change emissions!
andai 4y ago
Fun fact, Covid did leak from a Chinese lab, but it was in December 2021: >A lab worker was bitten and infected by a mouse infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant at a high-biosecurity facility in Taipei. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...
- cbb330 4y ago
  Taipei, the capitol of Taiwan, is not a Chinese entity. This is a lab leak from a Taiwanese lab.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - alkjl4l4tl 4y ago
  - idontwantthis 4y ago
    That would be a fun conflation by a Chinese advocate.
  - dehrmann 4y ago
    I know what you mean, but Taipei is the capital of the Republic of China.
    - saila 4y ago
      Most people are referring to PRC (AKA mainland China, nominally communist) not ROC (AKA Taiwan, a republic) when they say China (at least in the west), so your statement is true but not particularly helpful in this context.
  - robonerd 4y ago
    Taiwan is Chinese, but they're not communist Chinese. They are the Republic of China, not the People's Republic of China.
qbasic_forever 4y ago
Whatever toy gain of function research someone is doing in a lab vastly pales in comparison to the enormous gain of function 'experiment' we are right now performing worldwide with the continued high transmission rate of COVID-19. Look at what variants like Omicron BA.5 and BA.4 have evolved into, they are quite possibly the most infectious and dangerous air spread pathogens known to man. These didn't come from a lab, we cooked them up by dropping all mitigations and pretending the pandemic was over instead of quashing this virus for good.
- dehrmann 4y ago
  The only alternative to this experiment is China's currently policy. There isn't much of a middle ground because anything short of aggressive testing, lockdowns, and quarantine won't be enough to stop the spread.
  - qbasic_forever 4y ago
    No, we literally just need to mandate N95 masks in public settings and get the effective R value down near 1 again. Contact tracing and government support for paid sick leave, etc. would control it even further. At no point do harsh lockdowns have to happen.
    - dehrmann 4y ago
      > No, we literally just need to mandate N95 masks in public settings and get the effective R value down near 1 again. But as soon as people take off masks, it starts spreading again. It's also getting less politically viable when ~70% of Americans have had covid (the CDC estimated 60% in late April).
      - qbasic_forever 4y ago
        > It's also getting less politically viable when ~70% of Americans have had covid (the CDC estimated 60% in late April) This means nothing. The virus reinfects people with existing immunity. For example Senator Wicker from MS is on his _third_ infection: https://www.magnoliastatelive.com/2022/06/13/senator-roger-wicker-has-covid-19-its-the-third-time-hes-known-to-have-been-infected/ https://www.magnoliastatelive.com/2022/06/13/senator-roger-w... Two of those infections have been in the last four months alone! We have to use NPIs like masking to stop the virus from spreading in order to stop new variants from evolving. There is no herd immunity. There is no natural immunity.
dehrmann 4y ago
As someone in tech, what bothers me is all the attention AI gets for possible ethical problems, while biologists are doing some pretty scary experiments with potentially large-scale negative consequences, and they've gotten relatively little attention.
- handmodel 4y ago
  It's also very weird that the same type of people who normally talk about corporations/governments covering up pollutants do not talk about how many people could die from a potential lab leak.
  - mikeyouse 4y ago
    Every single pandemic before SC2 was of natural origin. You have to make a much more persuasive case than "people could die from a lab leak" to ban research that could plausibly reduce the death toll from the next pandemic.
    - tripletao 4y ago
      Are you not familiar with the 1977 flu pandemic? About 700k people died. You can argue about whether that was a "lab leak" or (as Gronvall prefers) a mere "vaccine accident", but either is unnatural. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Russian_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Russian_flu
      - mikeyouse 4y ago
        Even in the 'steelman' case of a lab leak in the '77 H1N1 - it was a natural virus that later escaped and caused the pandemic. Even if it was some accident involving the 1950's H1N1, that means the natural 1950s H1N1 was capable of causing a pandemic... We really need to come to terms with the fact that whether we research them or not, there are going to be increasing numbers of pandemic-capable viruses spreading in human populations.
        4y ago
bayesian_horse 4y ago
There's no proof of "gain of function" experiments at all or specifically linked to Sars-Cov-2. It is heavily unlikely that such an experiment would switch a virus from un-pandemic-able to pandemic-able. The mechanisms to do that are entirely theoretical. So it's not clear at all that gain of function would have been able to create a Virus like Sars-Cov-2 out of a hypothetical bat virus. And there is no evidence any such research has been going on. Nor is there any evidence the virus has passed through the Wuhan lab in question at all.

azekai 4y ago

This is the conversation we need to have, on an international level.

EA_itsinthegame 4y ago
When Australia proposed an international investigation into the origins, in direct response, China started cyber attacks, resentencing Australian prisoners to death, and used economic warfare. This seems like a conversation we can not have, if China has any say in it. And for a natural origin spillover event, it sure wants to have its say...
- zo1 4y ago
  If your claims are true, then the fact that I (and others) didn't know this is seriously disturbing. I think a lot of people would have doubled down and pushed for alot more pressure and investigation into all of China's dealings across the board, if they had known. At the very least it's an indictment on our media which should be pointing out these curious coincidences. Instead I think they have other motives.
  - throwawaymaths 4y ago
    I don't know about the other two but Australian coal was put under sanction by china in the wake of their call for an investigation. This, ironically, was quite bad for china since it indirectly led to power cuts in some provinces because they couldn't use the lower grade of coal otherwise available. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/australia-finds-new-markets-for-coal-barley-amid-china-trade-fight.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/australia-finds-new-markets-... Power cuts later that fall: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58733193 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58733193
    - SiempreViernes 4y ago
      Doubly ironically is that this was probably the single most effective action Morrison took to limit climate change emissions!

andai 4y ago

Fun fact, Covid did leak from a Chinese lab, but it was in December 2021: >A lab worker was bitten and infected by a mouse infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant at a high-biosecurity facility in Taipei. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...

cbb330 4y ago
Taipei, the capitol of Taiwan, is not a Chinese entity. This is a lab leak from a Taiwanese lab.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- alkjl4l4tl 4y ago
- idontwantthis 4y ago
  That would be a fun conflation by a Chinese advocate.
- dehrmann 4y ago
  I know what you mean, but Taipei is the capital of the Republic of China.
  - saila 4y ago
    Most people are referring to PRC (AKA mainland China, nominally communist) not ROC (AKA Taiwan, a republic) when they say China (at least in the west), so your statement is true but not particularly helpful in this context.
- robonerd 4y ago
  Taiwan is Chinese, but they're not communist Chinese. They are the Republic of China, not the People's Republic of China.

qbasic_forever 4y ago

Whatever toy gain of function research someone is doing in a lab vastly pales in comparison to the enormous gain of function 'experiment' we are right now performing worldwide with the continued high transmission rate of COVID-19. Look at what variants like Omicron BA.5 and BA.4 have evolved into, they are quite possibly the most infectious and dangerous air spread pathogens known to man. These didn't come from a lab, we cooked them up by dropping all mitigations and pretending the pandemic was over instead of quashing this virus for good.

dehrmann 4y ago
The only alternative to this experiment is China's currently policy. There isn't much of a middle ground because anything short of aggressive testing, lockdowns, and quarantine won't be enough to stop the spread.
- qbasic_forever 4y ago
  No, we literally just need to mandate N95 masks in public settings and get the effective R value down near 1 again. Contact tracing and government support for paid sick leave, etc. would control it even further. At no point do harsh lockdowns have to happen.
  - dehrmann 4y ago
    > No, we literally just need to mandate N95 masks in public settings and get the effective R value down near 1 again. But as soon as people take off masks, it starts spreading again. It's also getting less politically viable when ~70% of Americans have had covid (the CDC estimated 60% in late April).
    - qbasic_forever 4y ago
      > It's also getting less politically viable when ~70% of Americans have had covid (the CDC estimated 60% in late April) This means nothing. The virus reinfects people with existing immunity. For example Senator Wicker from MS is on his _third_ infection: https://www.magnoliastatelive.com/2022/06/13/senator-roger-wicker-has-covid-19-its-the-third-time-hes-known-to-have-been-infected/ https://www.magnoliastatelive.com/2022/06/13/senator-roger-w... Two of those infections have been in the last four months alone! We have to use NPIs like masking to stop the virus from spreading in order to stop new variants from evolving. There is no herd immunity. There is no natural immunity.

dehrmann 4y ago

As someone in tech, what bothers me is all the attention AI gets for possible ethical problems, while biologists are doing some pretty scary experiments with potentially large-scale negative consequences, and they've gotten relatively little attention.

handmodel 4y ago
It's also very weird that the same type of people who normally talk about corporations/governments covering up pollutants do not talk about how many people could die from a potential lab leak.
- mikeyouse 4y ago
  Every single pandemic before SC2 was of natural origin. You have to make a much more persuasive case than "people could die from a lab leak" to ban research that could plausibly reduce the death toll from the next pandemic.
  - tripletao 4y ago
    Are you not familiar with the 1977 flu pandemic? About 700k people died. You can argue about whether that was a "lab leak" or (as Gronvall prefers) a mere "vaccine accident", but either is unnatural. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Russian_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Russian_flu
    - mikeyouse 4y ago
      Even in the 'steelman' case of a lab leak in the '77 H1N1 - it was a natural virus that later escaped and caused the pandemic. Even if it was some accident involving the 1950's H1N1, that means the natural 1950s H1N1 was capable of causing a pandemic... We really need to come to terms with the fact that whether we research them or not, there are going to be increasing numbers of pandemic-capable viruses spreading in human populations.
      - 4y ago

bayesian_horse 4y ago

There's no proof of "gain of function" experiments at all or specifically linked to Sars-Cov-2. It is heavily unlikely that such an experiment would switch a virus from un-pandemic-able to pandemic-able. The mechanisms to do that are entirely theoretical. So it's not clear at all that gain of function would have been able to create a Virus like Sars-Cov-2 out of a hypothetical bat virus. And there is no evidence any such research has been going on. Nor is there any evidence the virus has passed through the Wuhan lab in question at all.