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Obligatory XKCD: http://xkcd.com/605/ http://xkcd.com/605/ "As you can see, by late next month you'll have over four dozen husbands. Better get bulk rate on tha

by Piskvor 15y ago

Obligatory XKCD: http://xkcd.com/605/ http://xkcd.com/605/ "As you can see, by late next month you'll have over four dozen husbands. Better get bulk rate on that wedding cake." IMNSHO, the adoption of IE9 (on new computers with Win7 preinstalled, perhaps?) might make a significant dent in that projection. I've seen a very similar graph (starring Firefox) a few years back; and then IE came back from the dead with version 8.

jamieforrest 15y ago
Yeah, and there's always someone in April who's on pace to hit 80 home runs for the season. That said, I think the trend toward Chrome, and webkit browsers in general, is undeniable.
- chalst 15y ago
  Linear extrapolation in general is unwise, but with market share it is particularly foolish. I'd bet the opposite, that the gap between the two browsers takes longer than a year to vanish.
  - ZeroGravitas 15y ago
    In South America, where these stats show Chrome in the lead, the growth seemed to be accelerating up to and beyond the crossover point (the same in the few individual countries where they're leading). What about marketshare particularly should make this unusual or unexpected? I'd assume some kind of tipping point effect as it becomes "normal" not to run IE and/or to run Chrome that could lead to such acceleration since the barriers to adoption are so low.
    - rhplus 15y ago
      Perhaps there's a distribution deal or popular website in South America that requires Chrome to function best (Orkut?). Or perhaps, as you said, it's just a network effect.
lloeki 15y ago
No extrapolation here[0]. Fx is dogfighting with IE, all the while Cr is coming increasingly closer. [0] http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser-eu-monthly-200809-201107 http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser-eu-monthly-200809-201107
- kablamo 15y ago
  Interesting. Firefox is about equal to IE in Europe. While in Germany, Firefox usage is way ahead of IE: http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser-DE-monthly-200809-201107 http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser-DE-monthly-200809-201107 In antarctica everyone is using safari.
chc 15y ago
Ordinarily I downvote XKCD links on Hacker News, but in this particular case, it really does a perfect job of explaining what's wrong with the article.

by Piskvor 15y ago

jamieforrest 15y ago

Yeah, and there's always someone in April who's on pace to hit 80 home runs for the season. That said, I think the trend toward Chrome, and webkit browsers in general, is undeniable.

chalst 15y ago
Linear extrapolation in general is unwise, but with market share it is particularly foolish. I'd bet the opposite, that the gap between the two browsers takes longer than a year to vanish.
- ZeroGravitas 15y ago
  In South America, where these stats show Chrome in the lead, the growth seemed to be accelerating up to and beyond the crossover point (the same in the few individual countries where they're leading). What about marketshare particularly should make this unusual or unexpected? I'd assume some kind of tipping point effect as it becomes "normal" not to run IE and/or to run Chrome that could lead to such acceleration since the barriers to adoption are so low.
  - rhplus 15y ago
    Perhaps there's a distribution deal or popular website in South America that requires Chrome to function best (Orkut?). Or perhaps, as you said, it's just a network effect.

lloeki 15y ago

No extrapolation here[0]. Fx is dogfighting with IE, all the while Cr is coming increasingly closer. [0] http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser-eu-monthly-200809-201107 http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser-eu-monthly-200809-201107

kablamo 15y ago
Interesting. Firefox is about equal to IE in Europe. While in Germany, Firefox usage is way ahead of IE: http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser-DE-monthly-200809-201107 http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser-DE-monthly-200809-201107 In antarctica everyone is using safari.

chc 15y ago

Ordinarily I downvote XKCD links on Hacker News, but in this particular case, it really does a perfect job of explaining what's wrong with the article.