There’s no single answer, not even a thousand answers to your question. Any dynamic system as complex as a business (let alone economy) is by its nature unpred

There’s no single answer, not even a thousand answers to your question. Any dynamic system as complex as a business (let alone economy) is by its nature unpredictable. Posteriori it’s easy to find correlations and pretend to be a smart ass about it. But you fundamentally cannot predict anything substantial beforehand. Taleb has explained it in his books, btw.